Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SX is down 2 cents and near 12.35. SMZ is near 336.7. BOZ is near 63.17. CZ is down 2 cents and near 5.36. WZ is down 4 cents and near 7.55. KWZ is down 5 cents and near 7.72. MWZ is down 2 cents and near 10.25.
US stocks are higher. Crude is lower. US Dollar lower. Big Tech earnings this week.
Dalian corn, soybean, soymeal, palmoil, soyoil higher. Soymeal lower. Matif wheat lower, corn higher.
USDA estimated that 66 pct US corn crop was harvested vs 70 ly. Rains could delay harvest.
Weekly US corn exports were only 21 mil bu vs 41 last week. Season to date exports 185 vs 242 ly.
Brazil 1st crop plantings 65 pct. Brazil truckers 2nd day strike due to high fuel cost. SE stations running out.
Ukraine corn harvest 32 pct with yields reported above expectations and above 40 mmt. USDA 38.
USDA estimated US soybean harvest 73 oct +13 ly, +3 average. Lack of new soybean US sales negative. Weekly US soybean exports were 77 mil bu vs 90 lw and 106 ly. Season to date exports 298 vs 543 ly. China total soybean demand big unknown, Oct imports 6.5 mmt. Nov could be 13 mmt. Brazil soybean plantings 36 pct under favorable conditions. Brazil crop 144 mmt vs 137 ly. Corn 118.
Some showers in Argentina west areas. Corn crop est at 53 mmt vs 50 ly, soybeans 51 vs 46 ly.
EU and Russia wheat export prices higher. Russia domestic prices higher vs export. USDA estimated 80 pct US WW crop planted. Crop rated 46 pct G/E vs 60 est. White ratings down. Forecast suggest good US south plains and SE US rains next week. More rain for US east Midwest. Weekly US wheat exports only 5 mil bu vs 14 ly. Season to date exports 348 vs 407 last year. World Oct wheat trade + 9 pct vs ly. World buyers short and prices look to continue to trend higher.
Baltic dry index freight down 25 pct from top. Panamax ocean freight at 11 year highs.
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