Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SF is down 8 cents and near 14.19. SMF is near 404.1. BOF is near 70.28. CH is down 3 cents and near 6.66. WH is down 4 cents and near 8.17. KWH is unch and near 9.24. MWH is down 1 cent and near 9.58.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. For the last week, commodity markets were hoping that a slight reduction of strict Covid restrictions would help China slumping economy and raw material imports. 3 reported Covid deaths and 3 city lockdowns may be offering resistance to energies and metals.
Trade continues to wait for official word from Russia that Ukraine export that expired Nov 19 will reopen. Some feel Ukraine could export 21.0-23.0 mmt of corn vs USDA 15.5 and 13.0-14.0 mmt of wheat and Russia 42.0+ mmt of wheat. Dry US plains weather will support WH near 8.00 and low demand for US exports will limit upside near 8.50. CH could see increase resistance near 6.75 due to slow exports. Support near 6.55 due to slow farmer selling.
Over the weekend, most of Argentina saw rain. Forecast calls for Argentina rains every 7-9 days. Brazil could see daily rains favoring north and northeast. Some look for strong resistance near 14.30 SF. Support is near 14.06. Brazil Feb soybeans are 85 cents lower than US. Reduced demand for China demand for US soybeans should cap rallies. Favorable SA weather could weigh on prices. Tightening US old crop supply and high crush margins offers support.
US south plains and central Midwest should see below normal rains and start the week colder than normal but could see warming midweek.
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