Written Commentary
Surprising Jump in Jobless Claims
June 8, 2023
Grains Mixed With Beans Slightly Higher
- October 25, 2022
- Steve Freed
- Follow us on Twitter @TradeADMIS
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SF is up 1 cent and near 13.82. SMZ is near 409.2. BOZ is near 71.70. CZ is down 2 cents and near 6.79. WZ is down 7 cents and near 8.31. KWZ is down 9 cents and near 9.28. MWZ is down 8 cents and near 9.49.
Soybean futures are slightly higher. There is some talk that central Brazil may be turning dry. Argentina is still dry. Jan soybean board crush margins are near record high. Cash is even higher. This supports soybean futures. China Sep soybean imports were 7.72 mmt. Oct-Sep total 91.6 mmt vs USDA 90.0. Jan-Sep is 69.0 mmt which is down 7 pct from last year. US soybean exports are down 12 pct vs ly. US harvest is 80 pct and up 13 from last week. Poor US river logistics offers resistance to futures. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil prices were lower. Palmoil continues to trade higher and is up $200 since early Sep.
Corn futures are lower. US domestic corn demand is strong with nearby corn supplies down 1.0 bil bu from ly. US corn exports are down 21 pct. US harvest is 61 pct. Brazil export prices are lower and the spread between cheaper Brazil vs US suggest Brazil corn could be imported into US. There are no Ukraine export price due to talk that Russia may not extend Ukraine export corridor deal. China Yuan making 15 year low. Investors continue to exit China equity market.
Wheat futures are lower. USDA estimated that 79 pct of US winter wheat is planted. KS 76, IN 65. WA 95. OK could see rains but most of US HRW crop areas are dry. US subsoil are 68 pct short/very short vs 35 ly. Subsoil 66 pct short/very short vs 42 ly. US wheat exports are 348 mil bu vs 350 ly. Some concern about 2023 global wheat supply is supportive. Russia wheat export prices are lowest and offers resistance. Status of Ukraine export corridor is key with managed funds are short Chicago wheat futures.
US Dollar is mixed. US stocks, Crude, gold, silver, copper, cocoa and sugar are lower. Coffee is higher.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
