Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
TGIF. Grains are mixed. SN is up 4 cents at 15.41. SX is up 2 cents at near 13.80 SMN is near 391.3. BON is near 66.83. CN is up 2 cents at near 6.66. CZ is down 1 cent at near 5.53. WN is down 4 cents at near 6.71. KWN is down 4 cents at near 6.21. MWN is up 2 cents at near 7.20.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold and copper are lower. CBOT grains closed Monday.
Since May 12, SN dropped from 16.67 to 14.89 low, SMN 457 to 378, BON 70.49 to 64.23, CN 7.35 to 6.02 and WN 7.67 to 6.39. Washout linked to better US Midwest weather, overbought tech picture and slowdown in China buying US new crop soybeans and corn. Thursday sharp rally led by CN linked in part to strong domestic corn basis and 2 week US Midwest forecast hinting of warmer and drier weather. NA HRS and PNW weather also looks drier. EU and Russia spring wheat areas are also drier.
US April soybean crush est near 171 mil bu vs 188 in March and 183 ly. SBO stocks 2,271 vs 2,602 ly.
US Dakotas account for 15 pct US soybean and 10 pct US corn acres. US needs 51 SB and 180 corn yield. Argentina soybean harvest 91 pct with crop est near 43.5 mmt vs USDA 47. Corn harvest 31 pct.
Matif corn futures higher following higher US futures and tight old crop supply. US corn fob $305 vs Argentina 255 and Ukraine 293. US HRW $281, Baltic 288, Russia 269.
Dalian, corn, soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil prices higher following US gains.
US soybean Fob $597 vs Brazil 567 and Argentina 548. US meal $492 vs Argentina 410.
Next week, USDA first US 2021 corn crop rating expected above 70 pct G/E. 11 of 15 years rating above 70, final yield at/above USDA May. Extreme summer weather forced remaining years below USDA May.
On Thursday, Managed funds were net buyers of 15,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 32,000 Corn; sold 20,000 Soybeans; 5,000 Soymeal, and; 6,000 in Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 240,000 Corn; long 131,000 Soybeans; long 29,000 Soymeal, and; net long 74,000 Soyoil.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
