Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Post USDA report, SK is down 4 cents and near 14.92. SMK is near 456.4. BOK is near 54.38. CK is up 1 cent and near 6.52. WK is up 3 cents and near 6.77. KWK is up 4 cents and near 8.73. MWK is up 4 cents and near 8.67. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is up slightly. Gold, silver, copper and sugar are higher. Coffee, cocoa and cotton are lower
USDA left US 2022/23 corn carryout unchanged at 1,342 and farm prices at 6.60 vs 6.00 ly. Some feel USDA could be too low in demand especially after March stocks guess. USDA lowered World corn end stocks 1 mmt to 295 and vs 307 ly. USDA left Brazil crop at 125 mmt and exports at 50 mmt vs 116 and 48 ly. USDA did drop Argentina crop 3 mmt to 37 and export to 25 vs 49 and 34 ly. USDA raised Ukraine corn exports 2 mmt to 25.5 and Russia 1 mmt to 4.1. USDA estimates China end stocks at 207 mmt vs World total of 295.
USDA also left US 2022/23 soybean carryout unchanged at 210 mil bu. Some were looking for higher carryout due to lower exports. USDA left US soyoil biofuel demand at 11,600 mil pounds vs 10,348 ly. USDA left soymeal domestic use unch at 39,400 and exports at 13,700. USDA left World soybean end stocks at 100 mmt. USDA raised Brazil crop to 154 mmt vs 130 ly and lowered Argentina crop 6 mmt to 27. USDA left Brazil soybean exports at 92.7 mmt vs 79.0 ly. Argentina imports were raised to a record 8.3 mmt and Crush lowered 3 mmt to 32 vs 39 ly. China imports were left at 96 mmt but domestic use was lowered 1 mmt and end stocks were increased 1 mmt. USDA left US sorghum carryout at 25 mi bu vs 47 ly and exports at 90 vs 294 ly. Farm prices was left at 6.90 vs 5.94 ly. USDA dropped oat supply 5 mil bu to 175, domestic use at 141 vs 124 ly.
USDA increased US wheat carryout 30 mil bu to 598 due to lower feed and residual. HRW stocks were down 11 to 262 vs 376 ly, SRW down 14 to 88 vs 99 ly, HRS up 31 to 151 vs 146 ly and white up 21 to 66 vs 54 ly. Durum up to 31 from 27 and domestic use 91 vs 67 ly.
USDA dropped World wheat end stocks 2 mmt to 265 vd 272 ly. China is 139 of total. Argentina exports were lowered 1 mmt to 5.5. EU exports were dropped 2 mmt to 35 and imports were raised to 10.5 mmt. EU wheat end stocks were increased 1 mmt to 12 vs most est near 18. Russia exports were up 1.5 mmt to 45 vs 33 ly. Ukraine exports were up 1 mmt to 14.5 vs 18.8 ly. US south plains is still dry. There were no new vessels inspected in Black Sea as intense discussions continue on extension of Ukraine export corridor deal.
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