Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is down 1 cent and near 13.45. SMZ is near 396.4. BOZ is near 60.73. CZ is up 3 cents and near 4.79. WZ is up 9 cents and near 5.96. KWZ is up 7 cents and near 7.38. MWZ is up 4 cents and near 7.83. US stocks are lower US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and near $89.
Soybean futures are slightly lower. USDA est US soybean yield near 50.1 vs 50.9 in August. USDA raised US 2022/23 soybean exports 10 mil bu and China old crop imports 2 mmt and new crop 1 mmt. USDA dropped US 2023 crop 59 mil bu but dropped crush 10 and exports 35. This resulted in a carryout near 220 vs 207 expected. Brazil 2024 soybean crop is est at 163 mmt vs 156 ly and Argentina 48 vs 25 ly. Dalian soybean, soymeal futures were lower. Palmoil and soyoil futures were also lower. EU sunoil and RSO supplies are higher. Ukraine oilseed supplies are also higher.
Corn futures dropped below key support. USDA est US corn yield near 173.8 vs 175.1 in August. USDA dropped US 2022/23 FSI use 30 mil bu and ethanol 30 mil bu. Exports were raised 40 mil bu. Carryout down 5 mil bu. USDA raised US 2023 crop 23 mil bu. Higher harvested acres offset lower yield. Debate will continue on final US yield but demand forecast may still be too high. USDA est Argentina 2024 corn crop at 54 mmt vs 34 ly, Brazil 129 vs 137, Ukraine 28 vs 27 and China 277.0 vs 277.2 ly. Dalian corn futures lower and new lows for the month.
Wheat futures are higher. USDA left US 2023/24 supply and demand unchanged. USDA dropped Argentina crop 1 mmt to 16.5 vs 12.6 ly, lowered Canada 2 mmt to 31.0 vs 34.3 ly, EU was lowered 1 mmt to 134.0 vs 134.2 ly, Australia down 3 mmt to 26.0 vs 39.7 ly and Ukraine crop was raised 1.5 mmt to 22.5 vs 21.5 ly. India crop was left at 113.5 vs 104 ly. EU stocks lowest since 2020. EU wheat exports were lowered 2.25 mmt to 6.0.
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