Written Commentary
Global Ag News for Dec 8.23
December 8, 2023
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SF is down 5 cents and near 13.38. SMZ is near 446.8. BOZ is near 50.60. CZ is unch and near 4.68. WZ is down 2 cents and near 5.78. KWZ is down 3 cents and near 6.44. MWZ is down 4 cents and near 7.29. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is lower.
Soybean futures are lower. There remains too much rain in S Brazil. Central and north Brazil forecast is dry. 10-15 Brazil C/N forecast has showers but confidence is low. Fact USDA increased US crop and soybean carryout triggered new selling. USDA increased US soybean yield to 49.9.and in line with farmer talk. USDA left Brazil crop at 163 mmt vs 158 ly and Argentina at 55 mmt vs 34 ly. China imports were left at 100 mmt vs 100.8 ly. SF is now down 45 cents from recent high and back below the 100 DMA. Soybeans will need lower Brazil supplies and even higher US soybean crush and exports to rally back over recent high and avoid a lower trend. .
Corn futures are unch. Fact USDA increased US crop and corn carryout triggered new selling. USDA increased US corn yield to 174.9.and above farmer talk. USDA left Brazil crop at 129 mmt vs 137 ly and Argentina at 55 mmt vs 34 ly. China imports were left at 23 mmt vs 18.7 ly. CZ is now down 41 cents from the Oct 20 high and testing contract lows. Corn will need lower Brazil supplies and even higher US demand to rally back over recent high and avoid an even lower trend. USDA raised Black Sea corn supply but estimate Ukraine exports at 20 mmt vs 27 ly.
Wheat futures are lower. USDA increased US carryout 14 mil bu. USDA raised Russia crop 5 mmt to 90.0. USDA increased Ukraine exports. USDA did lowered India crop 3 mmt. Black Sea weather is ok. EU is wet. US south plains HRW is dry.
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