Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is up 5 cents and near 13.35. SMZ is near 365.1. BOZ is near 62.56. CZ is up 1 cent and near 5.70. WZ is down 8 cents and near 7.66. KWZ is down 8 cents and near 7.41. MWZ is down 5 cents and near 9.21. Wheat futures seeing profit taking after recent gains. US stocks are lower. US Dollar Is higher. Crude is lower.
Some Managed funds still unwilling to buy grain/oilseed futures. Buying treasuries. Grains need demand.
Next week, US Midwest will turn cooler/wetter. Russia dry. Argentina dry. EU wet. Ukraine ok.
Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures higher. Corn lower. China crush margins better.
Pro Farmer est OH corn yield at 185 vs USDA 193 and 171 ly. SD 151 vs USDA 133 and 162 ly. Pro Farmer est OH soybean pod count 1,195 vs 1,155 ly. SD 996 vs 1,250 ly.
USDA dropped US corn crop ratings to 62 vs 64 last week; soybean rating 57 vs 60 last week. 27 pct corn crop dented vs 22 ave. All states dropped except OH, WI and ND. Best WI,OH,MI,IL. 81 pct soybean crop set pods vs 79 ave. All states dropped except MI, AR, OH and MO. Best Delta, OH.
Canada canola futures higher. Crop could drop below 15 mmt. China pig herd up 31 pct yoy.
US corn exports 2,533 mil bu vs 1,597 ly. USDA goal 2,775 vs 1,777 ly. Brazil domestic corn price +8.00. US soybean exports 2,155 mil bu vs 1,513 ly. USDA goal 2,260 vs 1.679 ly. US soybean crush -20.
China zero Covid tolerance at ports slow unloads add to congestion. Record ocean freight slow demand.
USDA left US spring wheat crop rating at 11 pct G/E vs 70 ly. Canada wheat crop below 24 mmt .
Russia export tax trading at $70 vs $30 quote and reducing export outlook. US Durum price $18.00.
Macro financial markets focus on Afghanistan, US Fed policy, too much Crude oil supply and US Dollar. US equites trying to balance low US interest rates versus concern about slowing demand due to virus.
On USDA Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 3,000 corn and 2,000 soyoil, and bought 2,000 soybeans and 1,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed Money net long 39,000 SRW Wheat; long 273,000 Corn; net long 107,000 Soybeans; net long 28,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 67,000 lots of soyoil.
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