Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is p 8 cents and near 13.49. SX is up 8 cents and near 13.37. SMU is near 358.5. BOU is near 61.44. CU is down 4 cents and near 5.45. CZ is down 4 cents and near 5.49. WU is unch and near 7.12. KWU is unch and near 7.00. MWU is down 2 cents and near 9.06. USDA report and US August weather key. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude oil is higher.
US corn ratings increased 2 pct to 64 G/E vs 71 ly. Crops improved in IL, MO and WI. Highest rated US corn crop in OH, MI, KY, IL and WI. Lowest MN, SD and ND.
US soybean ratings unch at 60 G/E vs 74 ly. Crops improved in IL and MO. Highest rated US soybean crop in LA, MS, TN, OH, IL and WI. Lowest MN, SD, ND and IA.
There are reports China bought 30 US/Brazil soybean cargoes last week. More US PNW overnight. US fob soybean $538, Argentina $531, Brazil $551. US fob soymeal $432 Argentina $389. China season to date soybean imports 83 mmt up 5 pct yoy. Need 14 mmt Aug-Sep for USDA goal.
3 week high in US Dollar, 3 week low Crude has soyoil 1 month low. UN climate report negative.
Brazil 2nd corn crop harvest 58 pct vs 70 average. US fob corn $262, Argentina $228, Ukraine $275. +Dalian corn futures lower after CNGOIC raised China corn crop 15 mmt. Trade will be focused on USDA est of US crop, Brazil crop, US 21/22 corn demand and US carryout.
Russia wheat harvest 53 pct. Yields suggest crop near 75 mmt vs USDA 85, Ukraine 32 vs USDA 30. Trade will be focused on USDA est of US wheat crop, Canada and Russia crop and US/World carryout. US fob HRW $331, Baltic $274, Germany $278, Russia $275, France $281. Better EU harvest weather.
SX range 13.00-13.57. US farmer selling 13.80. CZ range 5.40-5.60. US farmer selling 5.80. WU range 7.00-7.20. KWU range 6.80-7.20. Lower World crop KC could test 8.00. MWU range 9.00-9.50
On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 2,000 corn, 3,000 soybeans and 5,000 soyoil and bought 1,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed Money net long 8,000 SRW Wheat; long 250,000 Corn; net long 59,000 Soybeans; net long 24,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 57,000 lots of soyoil.
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