Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is down 6 cents and near 13.89. SMZ is near 414.6. BOZ is near 65.29. CZ is down 1 cent and near 6.92. WZ is up 6 cents and near 8.89. KWZ is up 6 cents and near 9.76. MWZ is up 5 cents and near 9.76.
South US plains, delta and east will see rains. Dry west Midwest and EU could aid harvest there. Argentina is dry with lower wheat crop probable.
Soybeans futures rallied after USDA lowered US crop and exports but left US carryout at only 200 mil bu. USDA did raise Brazil crop 3 mmt to a record 152. They also raised China imports 1 mmt to 98. Overnight prices are a little lower. Trade still feels US exports are too high and carryout is too low. USDA estimate of World soybean crop at 391 mmt is a record and up 52 mmt from last year.
USDA dropped US corn crop and carryout as expected. Some feel they are still to high in US exports and too low in carryout. USDA lowered World corn demand 6 mmt which is down 29 mmt from last year. EU and SE Asia are down 3 mmt. Ukraine is down 2 mmt. China crop was left at 274 mmt with some est closer to 240. China domestic use is 295 mmt. Imports 18.
Wheat futures fell on talk of Russia may not impose export quotas. USDA left Russia wheat crop at 91 mmt versus most estimates near 100 mt. Some also feel that USDA est of Russia wheat exports at 42 mmt may be 5 mmt too high. USDA dropped US export and carryout. US wheat exports are at 50 year low. US HRW export prices are still $75 premium to German wheat and $45 above French. US is $65 premium to Russia. Russia continues to bomb Ukraine cities. Russia said all key Ukraine energy and infrastructure spots are targets. This could raise new concerns about Black Sea wheat exports.
US Dollar is lower. US stocks are higher. Crude is unchanged and near $86. Gold, silver, copper are higher. Coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.
Key US inflation data today. US August CPI was 8.3 vs 8.5 in July, 9.1 in June. August core CPI excluding food and energy was 6.3 vs 5.9 in June and July. China election Sunday. More covid lockdowns could slow raw material imports. USDA did announce 526 mt US soybeans to China.
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