Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Dec 11.24
December 11, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are marginally higher. SN is up 3 cents and near 15.41. SX is up 1 cent and near 13.70. SMN is near 405.1. BON is near 66.56. CN is up 1 cent and near 6.59. CZ is up 2 cents and near 5.42. WN is up 1 cent and near 6.80. KWN is down 2 cents and near 6.31. MWN is up 5 cents and near 7.03. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is lower.
US Midwest 2 week weather forecast is for mostly favorable weather. This should help crops. NOAA US summer weather forecast today. China grain and oilseed Dalian futures traded lower. Key to grain and oilseed futures US/EU/Black Sea summer weather and impact of supplies.
Risk off. Most commodities traded lower in front of US Fed minutes which was hawkish. $ 1 trillion dollars have been knocked off crypto currencies.
On weekly chart, SN down from 16.77 to 15.37, SBM 456 to 403, SBO 72.37 to 65.98, CN 7.75 to 6.58.
Weekly export sales; Corn new crop 3,000-4,500, soybeans 100-400 and wheat 150-350. US corn exports near 1,763, sales 894. USDA goal 2,820, soybean exports 2,080 sales 175. 2,265 goal. USDA announced another 1.36 mmt US new crop corn to China. Total now near 9.5 mmt.
Wheat dropped after KS crop scouts are finding wheat yields the highest in 20 years. Better US weather.
News that Argentina will ban beef export for 30 days and could increase export taxes add unknown. Argentina dock strike extended through Friday due to request for more vaccinations.
Corn futures dropped due to Informa 96 mil acres est. This offset China buying US corn/Brazil lower crop.
Informa 2021 corn by state est vs 2020; IL 2,348/2,131, SD 875/729, ND 517/247, IA 2,673/2,296.
Reports that nearby soybean futures had reached a level to ration demand offers resistance. There are also reports that domestic soybean basis have dropped. Some link this to too much meal.
High soyoil prices may be slowing demand for biofuel. More concern about India demand after typhoon
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 2,000 Corn; sold 22,000 Soybeans; 5,000 Soymeal, and; 8,000 in Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 22,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 192,000 Corn; long 130,000 Soybeans; long 38,000 Soymeal, and; net long 91,000 Soyoil.
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