Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SN is down 14 cents and near 15.18. SX is down 10 cents and near 13.58. SMN is near 398.9. BON is near 65.65. CN is down 9 cents and near 6.55. CZ is down 9 cents and near 5.43. WN is down 6 cents and near 6.69. KWN is down 6 cents and near 6.28. MWN is down 1 cent and near 6.94.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is lower.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 37 3/4 in SRW, down 38 1/4 in HRW, down 46 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 11; Soybeans down 70 1/2; Soymeal down $1.96; Soyoil down 2.61.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 65 1/4 in SRW, down 84 in HRW, down 69 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 18 1/4; Soybeans down 18 1/2; Soymeal down $27.20; Soyoil up 2.59.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans down 52 yuan ; Soymeal down 8; Soyoil down 126; Palm oil down 146; Corn up 17 — Malasyian Palm is down 104. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 108 ringgit (-2.63%) at 4004 heading for its biggest weekly drop in two months as soy markets continued to slump and investors fretted that a resurgence in coronavirus infections in several countries will dampen demand.
US Midwest 2 week weather forecast is for mostly favorable weather. This should help crops. NOAA US 30 day calls for normal to above temps and normal rains. 90 days warm with normal rains.
Risk off. Most commodities traded lower on hawkish Fed comments, inflation and lower China prices.
On weekly chart, SN down from 16.77 to 15.18, SBM 456 to 399, SBO 72.37 to 65.65, CN 7.75 to 6.55.
Weekly export sales; Corn new crop 160 mil bu, soybeans 3 mil bu and wheat 12 mil bu. US corn exports near 1,862, sales 816. USDA goal 2,820, soybean exports 2,092 sales 165. 2,265 goal. USDA announced another 1.2 mmt US new crop corn to China. Total now near 10.4 mmt.
Wheat dropped after KS crop scouts are finding wheat yields the highest in 20 years. Better US weather. Corn futures dropped due to Informa 96 mil acres est. This offset China buying US corn/Brazil lower crop.
Matif corn futures are higher on talk of declining supplies. Ukraine dry sold 4-6 mmt to China.
There are also reports that domestic soybean basis have dropped. Some link this to too much meal.
Argentina soybean harvest 85 pct crop near 43 mmt. Corn 28 pct harvest crop near 46 mmt. Soyoil prices down 10 pct from high, palmoil down 8 pct due to demand concerns.
On Thursday, Managed funds were net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 12,000 Corn; sold 10,000 Soybeans; 2,000 Soymeal, and; 3,000 in Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 24,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 204,000 Corn; long 120,000 Soybeans; long 36,000 Soymeal, and; net long 88,000 Soyoil.
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