Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SX is down 9 cents and near 13.66. SMZ is near 396.3. BOZ is near 61.80. CZ is down 1 cent and near 4.84. WZ is down 2 cents and near 6.06. KWZ is down 5 cents and near 7.44. MWZ is up 1 cent and near 7.83. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.
Soybean futures are lower. Demand concerns returned to commodities. China August soybean imports were up 11 pct and near 9.36 mmt. Total to date 93.7 mmt and could suggest total imports closer to 103 mmt. Last 6 years, China annual imports have rose an average of 1.6 mmt. Prior 6 years average annual increase was 6.8 mmt. Argentina farmer selling only 12.1 mmt vs 25.0 last year. Soymeal export licenses only 12.1 mmt vs 25.0 ly. Trade est US soybean yield near 50.2 vs 50.9 in August and a range of 49.6-51.0.
Corn futures are slightly lower. US and EU corn harvest is starting which limits fund buying. Brazil increase corn crop to 131.8 mmt and corn exports are supported by low US Miss river logistics and slow Ukraine exports. Argentina farmer selling only 23.3 mmt vs 38.8 last year. Trade est US corn yield near 173.5 vs 175.1 in August and a range of 171.5-175.0. A 173.5 yield could still be above demand and offers resistance to futures. US Farmer selling is expected to be slow which could support cash and basis.
Wheat futures are mixed. US south plains could see rains. Matif wheat futures are lower due to record Russia monthly wheat exports vs lower US and EU. KWZ and MWZ rallied Wednesday on lower of Lower Argentina and Australia crops and lower Brazil and EU quality. Trade est World wheat carryout near 264.4 mmt vs 265.6 in August. Range 260-266. Trend is lower in World wheat supply. Brazil needs wheat imports but lower Argentina crop could suggest US imports for first time since 2014.
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