Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SN is down 10 cents and near 15.15. SX is down 15 cents and near 13.45. SMN is near 396.2. BON is near 65.00. CN is down 9 cents and near 6.50. CZ is down 15 cents and near 5.30. WN is down 13 cents and near 6.60. KWN is down 12 cents near 6.11. MWN is down 11 cents and near 6.89.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold and copper are higher.
US Midwest 2 week weather forecast is for mostly favorable weather. This should help crops. NOAA US 30 day calls for normal to above temps and normal rains. 90 days warm with normal rains.
Talk that China is targeting commodity speculators and hoarders is weighing on commodity prices. Talk of higher US acres hurt corn prices. Brazil corn prices new highs. EU prices $8.50. China $11.00.
US corn domestic basis are firm on increase ethanol demand, feed use and export demand.
Most est US 2020/21 corn carryout near 1,100. 2021 acres 93-96, crop 15,700, 2021/22 carryout 1,550. Most est US 2020/21 soybean carryout near 120. 2021 acres 88.5, crop 4,500, 2021/22 carryout 120.
Key in final price direction will be US summer weather with some forecasting dry and warm weather.
SN support near 15.00 then 14.74, SMN near 2021 lows. Next support 384. BON near 20 day support. CN support near 6.33 then 6.07. WN support near 6.55 then 6.40 then 6.20. KWN support 6.00.
Annual Kansas crop tour est the crop 75 mil bu higher than trade. US HRS rains less than hoped. Some look for lower 2021 World wheat supplies, higher demand, lower stocks, rebound in prices. Most est US 2020/21 wheat carryout near 850, US 2021 acres 46.4, crop 1,920, carryout 780.
On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 20,000 Corn; 3,000 Soybeans; 3,000 Soymeal, and; 1,000 in Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 268,000 Corn; long 131,000 Soybeans; long 38,000 Soymeal, and; net long 67,000 Soyoil.
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