Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 5 cents and near 12.53. SMZ is near 331.7. BOZ is near 62.00. CZ is up 2 cents and near 5.81. WZ is up 6 cents and near 8.03. KWZ is up 5 cents and near 8.11. MWZ is up 5 cents and near 10.81. OZ is near 7.72.
US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude remains near $84. Copper is lower.
US will be dry this week. Canada is dry. S Brazil is dry. Argentina rains. S EU rains. Russia dry.
USDA announced 132 mt US soybeans to China. US soybean export commit is 37 pct below last year. US soybean harvest 79 vs 86 last year. StoneX US soybean yield 51.9 or adds 50 mil bu to crop.
Matif rapeseed and Canada canola new highs. Dalian soybeans higher. Soymeal, palmoil, soyoil lower. There is talk that Brazil could have new crop soybeans available for export in January. Trade could see USDA raise US crop 50 mil bu, crush 10 and lower exports 90 with carryout 450/
CZ closed at highest level since August 12. US corn export commit is 22 pct below last year. US corn harvest 74 pct vs 86 last year. Matif corn futures new highs. EU ammonia and inflation at 13 year highs. Dalian corn higher. Some feel US corn crop +100 mil bu, feed use +50, ethanol +150, exports +100 with carryout 1,300/
Wheat futures rallied on fact Saudi Arabia bought 1.27 mmt wheat, double the initial tender amount. Egypt bought 180 mt Russia wheat at $364 or $3-8 higher than previous tender. The 2 tenders showed buyers short, buying hand to mouth and willing to pay the higher prices.
KC wheat futures at 7 year highs, CBOT wheat 9 year highs, Minneapolis spring wheat 10 year highs. USDA rated the US winter wheat crop 45 pct G/E. IL 86, MO 62, KS 62, OK 59, WA 33, OR 13. Matif wheat 13 year highs. 2 Euro shy of 2008 record high. Russia near $330-335 vs 2008 high $500.
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