Grains Higher on Negative News
Grains are higher. SH is up 6 cents and near 14.96. SMH is near 468.9. BOH is near 61.60. CH is up 4 cents and near 6.70. WH is up 5 cents and near 7.25. KWH is up 9 cents and near 8.28. MWH is up 9 cents and near 8.97. US stocks are choppy and lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Copper is higher. Coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.
Argentina rains offers resistance to soybean and corn futures. SH is near the lower end of a 4 month up trend channel. One crop watcher est Brazil corn near 125 mmt. S Brazil corn yields lower due to dry weather. Brazil soybean crop record 151 mmt. MG yields 60 bpa vs early est of 53.5. Same group est Argentina corn at 44 mmt and soybean at 39.
US soybean exports are up 2 pct ly and sales up 6 pct. China is on holiday. Some fear lower Brazil prices to China could suggest some switching of open unshipped US sales to Brazil. MG Brazil harvest is near 5 pct. EU rapeseed 4 month low due to cheaper vegoil imports and lower demand for biodiesel. US farmer continues to sell soybean. Some near 75 pct old crop sold.
CH is near 2 week low. Large US farmers are spotting increase old crop corn sales. Some are now near 50-60 pct sold. US corn exports are still down 30 pct vs last year. There is talk that China, while on holiday may be asking for Ukraine corn offers and Brazil new crop safrinha corn offers. Matif corn futures continue lower as domestic users are pulling corn away from exporters. Feed wheat is working into Asia vs corn.
Wheat futures continue to trend lower with increase moisture in US south plains, N Africa and Middle East offering new resistance. US exports are down 3 pct vs ly. WH is near 16 month low. Managed funds continue to add to record WH and Matif short positions with no reason yet to cover. Russia wheat prices are still a discount to US. Black Sea vessel inspections are still 15-40 day delays. Low inspection team numbers delays 100 vessel inspections.
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