Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 4 cents and near 12.28. SMZ is near 326.0. BOZ is near 62.73. CZ is up 4 cents and near 5.36. WZ is up 7 cents and near 7.49. KWZ is up 11 cents and near 7.59. MWZ is up 10 cents and near 9.95. US stocks are marginally higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Copper is higher.
US supply chain problems and increase consumer demand fuel and food and raising inflation worries. US Food companies raising prices due to higher raw material, energy, and labor cost and labor shortages.
China Dalian corn, palmoil and soyoil prices are lower. Soybeans and soymeal are higher.
Brazil weather favorable. Rains central.. Drier south. Argentina dry. US west Midwest dry. Russia dry. NOAA 30 and 90 day US Midwest forecast suggest above normal temps and Great lakes/PNW rains.
SX weekly range 12.23-12.30. 2 week range 11.84-12.51. High export sales offset by talk of higher supply. The higher supply and concern about exports could push US carryout over USDA 320 to 500 mil bu.
CZ weekly range 5.32-5.36. 2 week range 5.06-5.34. Warmer US weather offset est of higher demand. Some feel US ethanol demand could be 100 mil bu higher, exports 300 higher and carryout 1,100.
MWZ testing Thursday high near 9.96. Higher KC wheat futures has US HRW less competitive to buyers. There is a wide range of private est of US wheat carryout from 550-635 depending upon final exports. WZ weekly range 7.43-7.50. 2 week range 7.12-7.63. KWZ 2 week range 7.16-7.64.
Battle is already on between corn, soybean, wheat and oat 2022 US acres. May need less soybean acres.
Weekly US soybean export sales 106 mil bu. Total commit 1,075 vs 1,666 ly USDA goal 2,090 vs 2,265 ly. Weekly US corn export sales 50 mil bu. Total commit 1,137 vs 1,115 ly USDA goal 2,500 vs 2,753 ly. Weekly US wheat export sales 13 mil bu. Total commit 453 vs 566 ly USDA goal 875 vs 992 ly.
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