Grains, Goldman Sachs Commodity Index Lower

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Grains are lower. Trump imposed 25 pct tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10 pct additional tariffs on China imports – then paused Canada and Mexico for 30 days. China imposed 10-15 pct tariff on Crude oil, coal and farm equipment. Grain futures rallied off session lows. Trump is also looking at trade imbalance with EU. GSI Commodity Index ended lower due to lower Crude. US Dollar is lower. US stocks are lower. Gold is lower. Coffee is higher. Cocoa is lower.

 

CQG GSCI chart on 2.4.25

 

SOYBEANS

SH is near 10.55. SMH is near 306.4. BOH is near 45.34. Trump paused tariffs on Canada which weighed on soyoil. Brazil is seeing light rain. Rains are forecast next week. Trade trying to estimate SA crop size. One crop analyst est Brazil crop at 170.0 mmt and Argentina 49.0. One satellite group est Argentina crop at 45.0. Brazil vessel wait time growing due to slow harvest. MG harvest is near 12 pct vs 40 ly. Weekly US soybean exports are up 16 pct vs ly and USDA up 8. China demand for US soybeans is expected to drop as Brazil harvest increases. India palmoil imports were down 46 pct. Soyoil and sunoil were higher.

 

CORN

CH is near 4.88. Trump paused tariffs on Mexico. Weekly US corn exports are up 33 pct vs ly and USDA up 7. Weekly exports included to Mexico and EU countries. US PNW export price is lowest to Asia. Fact Trump is talking EU tariffs must be monitored. Brazil is seeing light rain. Rains are forecast next week. Trade trying to estimate SA crop size. One crop analyst est Brazil crop at 123.0 mmt down 2.0 mmt from previous est and Argentina 47.0. One satellite group est Argentina crop at 42.0. If confirmed, RFK Jr could ban use of HFCS.

 

WHEAT

WH is near 5.74. KWH is near 5.90. MWH is near 6.19. Trump tariffs rallied corn which rallied wheat futures. Still, drop in World buying and currencies could offer resistance. World 2025 weather uncertainty could offer support. Weekly US wheat exports are up 24 pct vs ly and USDA up 20 pct. Matif wheat futures rallied to 3 month high due to concern about west EU crop and reluctant farmer selling.

 

 

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