Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 20.25
May 20, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Grains could be consolidating near Tuesdays low. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Gold is higher. Crude is lower and near $67.42. OPEC announced production increases in April. US Commerce Secretary suggested Trump could announce as soon as today plan to meet Canada and Mexico half way on tariffs.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.05. C/N Brazil and C/S Argentina saw rains. Trump tariffs could delay new China buying. Protein and soyoil futures dropped Tuesday on trade war worries. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were lower. US Commerce Sec suggested Trump could meet Canada half way on tariffs. One crop scout est of Brazil soybean crop to 173 mmt vs USDA 169. He also left his est of Argentina unch at 48.5 mmt vs USDA 49. China announced plan to give farmers full cost of production insurance. China also plans to try to find substitutes for soymeal in feed rations. They gave no details on the plan. USDA announced 20 mt US soyoil to unknown. SOAM are closed due to Carnival.
CORN
CK is near 4.56. C/N Brazil and C/S Argentina saw rains. US NW Midwest is dry. US Commerce Sec suggested Trump could meet Mexico half way on tariffs. Dalian corn futures were lower. Trump stalled aid to Ukraine. Zelinsky texted he regrated flair up with Trump and wants to talk peace. US PNW corn prices remain cheapest to Asia buyers. Matif corn futures dropped following US futures and higher euro. One crop scout raised his est of Brazil corn crop 2 mmt to 130 mmt vs USDA 126. He left his est of Argentina unch at 45 mmt vs USDA 50.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.44. KWK is near 5.54. MWK is near 5.83. US plains will remain dry with moderating temps. Black Sea is also dry. ABARE put the Australian wheat crop at 34.1 mmt vs USDA 32. India flour milling group est wheat crop at 110 mmt vs USDA 113 and some private est near 115. They also est wheat imports at 2-3 mmt. Trade looks for USDA to eventually reduce EU and Russia exports but this could be offset by lower imports and World end stocks. USDA announced 130 mt US white wheat to S Korea.
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