Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 3.24
May 3, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are quietly lower. SK is down 1 cent and near 11.66. SMK is near 345.8. BOK is near 45.14. CK is down 1 cent and near 4.42. WK is down 5 cents and near 5.79. KWK is down 1 cent and near 6.07. MWK is down 2 cents and near 6.64. Stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is lower. Trade watching Thursdays GDP and Friday personal income. Higher rates longer could attract gold longs.
SK is near 11.67. SK resistance is near 11.75. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher. July soybean board crush holding between 80-85 on uncertain product demand. Soyoil holding at 39 pct of crush. Brazil farmer selling soybeans. USDA est World soybean trade at 173 mmt vs 172 ly. Brazil 103 vs 95 ly and US 46 vs 54 ly. China domestic crush higher, No buyers for 23 crop soybean auction. Brazil soybean export prices 50 cent cheaper to China vs US. Funds historically high shorts but tend to hold positions into fall.
CK is near 4.42. US Midwest is expected to get rain this week. That could slow plantings. Drier next week. Funds have flipped from 400,000 longs in 21 and 22 to short 272,000. They have bought 8,000 since last COT report. Historically tend to cover large short positions into July. Brazil monsoon rains are over. South America corn supply still uncertain. US looking at large 2024 supplies but farmer not selling. USDA est World corn trade at 200 mmt vs 180 ly. Brazil 52 vs 54, US 53 vs 42, Argentina 42 vs 25 and Ukraine 24.5 vs 27.1.
Wheat futures have turned lower. WK resistance 5.88. KWK traded over 100 DMA. MWK resistance is near 6.77. Funds short 91,000 Chicago futures but have bought 15,000 Chicago since last COT report. Funds tend to cover short into July then reestablish shorts. Matif rally has slowed due to increase farmer selling. USDA est World wheat trade at 213 mmt vs 219 ly. Russia 52 vs 47, EU 34 vs 35, Canada 24 vs 25, Australia 20 vs 31, US 19 vs 20 and Ukraine 17 vs 17.
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