Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is down 6 cents and near 11.87. SMH is near 344.0. BOH is near 47.75. CH is down 1 cent and near 4.32. WH is up 3 cents and near 5.92. KWH is unch and near 6.00. MWH is down 1 cent and near 6.82. US stocks are higher and over 5,000. US Dollar is flat. Crude is flat. Trade is becoming less confident in a Gaza truce. China is on Lunar New Year Holiday. USDA report failed to give bulls any support.
SH is near 11.87. USDA est US 2023/24 soybean carryout is 315 vs 280 in Jan. This due to lower exports. US soybean exports commit is 38.4 mmt vs 47.5 ly. CONAB estimated Brazil soybean crop at 149.4 mmt. USDA.156. Spread leaves traders confused. USDA left Argentina soybean crop at 50 mmt. Argentina increased crops poor rating from 14 last week to 22 pct. This still better than ly. China lowered soybean imports to 97 mmt vs USDA 102. USDA left World soybean trade at 170.5 mmt vs 171.8 ly. US is 46.8 vs 54.2. Brazil is 100 mmt vs 95.5 ly. USDA average 2023/24 farm prices is 12.65 vs 14.20 ly.
CH is near 4.31. USDA est for US 2023/24 corn carryout is 2,172 vs Jan est of 2,162. This due to drop in food. US corn exports commit is 34.9 mmt vs 26.8 ly. CONAB estimated Brazil corn crop at 113.7 mmt. USDA est Brazil corn crop at 124 mmt vs 127 in Jan. Spread leaves traders confused. USDA left Argentina corn crop at 55 mmt. China est corn import at 17.5 mmt vs USDA 23. USDA est World corn trade at 200.8 mmt vs 181.0 ly. US 53.3 vs 42.2. Brazil 52.0 vs 56.0. Argentina 41.0 vs 24.0. Ukraine 23.0 vs 27.0 ly. Largest importers are Mexico, Japan, S Korea and Egypt. USDA average 2023/24 farm prices is 4.80 vs 6.54 ly. Corn futures battling unknowns of Brazil crop size, Ukraine exports, China imports and EU imports.
WH is near 5.89. KWH 5.99. MWH 6.81.USDA raised US 2023/24 wheat carryout 10 mil bu due to lower food use. USDA est World wheat trade at 210.7 mmt vs 219.2 ly. US 19.7 vs 20.6. Russia 51.0 vs 47.5. EU 36.5 vs 35.1. Canada 24.0 va 25.6 ly. Australia 19.5 vs 31.8. Argentina 10.5 vs 3.6. Largest importers are N Africa, SE Asia and Middle east. N Africa could see needed rains. USDA average 2023/24 farm prices is 7.20 vs 8.83 ly. Trade watching cold US late Feb forecast.
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