Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SN is up 19 cents and near 15.81. SX is up 17 cents and near 14.31. SMN is near 395.4. BON is near 71.39. CN is up 7 cents and near 6.82. CZ is up 7 cents and near 5.80. WN is up 5 cents and near 6.82. KWN is up 7 cents and near 6.41. MWN is up 10 cents and near 7.94.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is mixed. Gold is lower. US jobs data key. New infrastructure bill also key.
USDA 10 day weather forecast is dry and warm for US north plains, upper Midwest and PNW.
Dalian soyoil and palmoil futures are sharply higher on talk if increase demand. There is also talk that India may lower edible oil import tax due to record high domestic prices.
July corn was lower Wednesday on talk of early position roll in front of next weeks fund roll. Overnight corn prices are trying to recover due to warm and dry US NW Midwest dry forecast. MWN nearing 8.00 on continued drier than normal 10 day NA HRS forecast.
Brazil weather remains dry lowering their corn crop outlook. There are no July corn export prices. West Europe is dry. East Europe seeing rains. Russia spring wheat areas dry. East China dry.
USDA June WASDE S/D June 10. Analyst est US 2020/21 soybean carryout 110 and corn 1,030. Analyst est US 2021/22 corn acres near 93.0 carryout 1,150, soybean acres 88.5 carryout 110.
USDA acreage and grain stocks report June 30. USDA reports, US weather, China demand key. Some est US June 1 corn stocks near 4,040 mil bu vs 5,019 ly, beans 776 vs 1,396 wheat 841 vs 1,028.
Weekly US ethanol production should be higher, stocks lower and margins remain positive. Weekly US export sales report is delayed until Friday due to Monday’s holiday.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; and 5,000 soymeal and 17,000 corn; and bought 8,000 soybeans and 10,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 19,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 317,000 Corn; long 166,000 Soybeans; long 29,000 Soymeal, and; net long 108,000 Soyoil.
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