Written Commentary
Surprising Jump in Jobless Claims
June 8, 2023
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SF is up 13 cents and near 14.13. SMZ is near 429.8. BOZ is near 73.16. CZ is up 18 cents and near 6.99. WZ is up 51 cents and near 8.79. KWZ is up 45 cents and near 9.71. MWZ is up 38 cents and near 9.83.
The big news over the weekend was that Russia closed the Ukraine export corridor after a drone hit the Russia flagship mine sweeper in Crimea. Some feel though that Ukraine could still ship 3 mmt of grain by rail to EU. There could be a better chances for rain across dry US south plains and Argentina. Wheat market had found resistance on concern of lower demand for US wheat export.
Corn futures are near the upper end of the recent 6.50-7.00 range. Much of the strength is due to strong domestic feeder and crush basis and now Russia closing Ukraine export corridor. Weakness was linked to slow demand for US export and record low Miss river water levels. Most of Ukraine exports has been corn. Most vessel loaders were not going to send in vessels to load Ukraine grain if the Ukraine export deal was not extended.
SF tested 14.24. Support has come from new soybean sales to China and good weekly exports and export sales. Resistance still comes from talk of slower US, China and World economy. There were 440 soybean deliveries from Ohio with no good stoppers. Last week. In Brazil, Lula victory is not expected to see radical changes in policy with mixed Congress and small margin of victory.
US Dollar is higher. US stocks are lower. Crude, gold, silver, copper are lower. US Fed and midterm election will also be key next 9 days.
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