Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SU is up 8 cents and near 13.79. SX is up 9 cents and near 13.70. SMU is near 357.0. BOU is near 65.38. CU is up 2 cents and near 5.52. CZ is up 2 cents and near 5.52. WU is up 8 cents and near 6.96. KWU is up 9 cents and near 6.68. MWU is up 12 cents and near 9.16. US stocks are higher. US Fed talking about a slower pace in buying assets. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher.
Still talk of net drying next 10 days for US NW Midwest, north plains, Canada prairies and US PNW. US Midwest 11-15 calls for normal to above temps and normal rain. After day 15, warmer and drier. Russia dry. EU wet. Hot and dry weather will move from N Africa to Black Sea. Brazil and Argentina dry.
Second day of US annual spring wheat tour yield 24.6 or 40 pct below 5 year ave yield of 42.4. Strong debate between record US east corn and soybean yield vs lower west has traders on sidelines. Strong resistance near 14.18 SX, 370 SMU, 67.78 BOU, 5.73 CZ, 7.18 WU, 6.74 KWU and 9.44 MWU.
Weekly US corn export sales 200-600, soybeans 100-400 and wheat 350-600 mt. Bulls need more sales.
Analyst est US 21/22 SB carryout 120 vs 155. USDA US soybean goal 61.8, Brazil 83.0. China imports 98.0. Analyst est US 21/22 corn carryout 970 vs 1,432. USDA corn export goal 72.4, Argentina 35.5, Ukraine 23. Brazil domestic corn prices $325 vs $255 export. Argentina exports to Brazil. Canada buying US corn? Analyst est US 21/22 wheat carryout 580 vs USDA 665. USDA US export goal 23.8, Russia 40, Ukraine 21. Canada, Russia wheat crops lower than USDA. Global buyers need wheat. Ukraine wheat lowest price.
Rumors China buying US new crop corn and soybean futures for Jan-Mar buying US export soybeans. US domestic soybean crush slowing offered support to meal. Global soymeal demand increasing. Dalian palmoil and soyoil futures lower, soybeans and corn lower. Soymeal higher .
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 3,000 soybeans; 2,000 soyoil and 2,000 corn and sold 2,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed Money net short 9,000 SRW Wheat; long 223,000 Corn; net long 92,000 Soybeans; net long 20,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 59,000 lota of soyoil.
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