Written Commentary
Ag Market View for June 2.23
June 2, 2023
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is down 9 cents and near 14.59. SMN is near 446.2. BON is near 54.47. CN is unch and near 6.25. WN is up 4 cents and near 6.84. KWN is up 1 cent and near 8.27. MWN is up 2 cents and near 8.57. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude is mixed. Gold is lower.
Soybean futures have dropped from 15.01 to 14.54. SX is back below 13.00. Some of the selling due to larger Brazil crop and lack of storage vs lower Argentina supply. Higher than expected UK inflation triggered new fear of higher US rates which could slow US economy. China soybean demand is on the rise but buying mostly Brazil. At the same time, Crude oil has dropped from 83-76 on demand worries. US soyoil demand bulls remain optimistic long term on biofuel demand. Some feel recent drop in SN-SX to 143 could be near support if US soyoil biofuel demand materialize. Forecast of Ukraine and EU oilseed 2023 supply remains on the rise. Futures testing 14.50 SN support. SMN could test 440 on demand worries.
Corn futures have dropped from 6.47 to 6.25. Corn may be following lower energy prices on demand worries. Ethanol production is on the rise. Issue is export with weekly US sales only 312 mt. There continues no new daily sales announced. S Korea, Japan and Mexico sales remain below normal. Matif corn made new lows on lower demand and higher stocks. Futures has taken some US weather premium out. CZ is back near 5.50. Argentina lowered corn exports est to 17-18 mmt vs USDA 25. Brazil new crop export prices are below US. C Brazil is getting crop making rains.
Wheat futures trying to find support near 6.75 WN, 8.20 KWN and 8.50 MWN. WN has dropped from 7.17 on demand worries and higher 2023 US SRW crop ratings. KWN dropped from 8.86 as forecast maps added rains for parts of dry US south plains. Some had suggested that US 2023 HRW crop could be down 70-100 mil bu. Rains in US north plains and Canada could slow planting there but adds to soil reserves. Uncertain Black Sea trade adds to wheat volatility.
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