Written Commentary
Global Ag News For May 21.2025
May 21, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. Goldman Sachs warns of global surplus of Crude. US Dollar is lower. Gold is unch but near new highs. Copper is higher. USDA will issue first US/World 2025/26 Supply and Demand in May. Most look for higher soybean, corn and wheat carryouts which long term could be bearish futures. Key is US summer weather. CBOT grains will be closed Friday for Easter holiday.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.50. New US and Brazil farmer selling dropped SN-SX spread to +24. US soybean export commit is up 14 pct vs ly and USDA up 8. Some feel final exports could be lower and could raise final carryout. USDA announced 121 mt US soybeans to unknown, 55 24/25 and 66 25/26. Last week, China was a massive buyer of Brazil soybeans. This could shift non China origin buyers to US. USDA left SA soybean crops unch. Global demand for US soybean, soymeal and soyoil exports and US summer weather will be key to futures price direction.
CORN
CN is near 4.95. New US and Brazil farmer selling dropped CN-CZ spread to +33. Brazil rains improved the Safrina 2nd crop outlook. EU will delay imposing a 25 pct tariff on US corn. USDA dopped US corn carryout more than expected due to higher exports. US export commit is up 25 pct vs ly and USDA revised up 11. Some feel final feed and residual could even be lower which raise carryout to closer to 1,500. USDA dropped World corn end stocks 1.3 mmt from March and lowest in 10 years and a 27 mmt drop yoy. US corn plantings should be near 5-7 pct. A mix of US Midwest rains and open planting weather offers resistance to futures. USDA left SA corn crops unch.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.63. KWN is near 5.72. MWN is near 6.21. Wheat is found support from lower US Dollar. But potential for US south plains rains is offering resistance to futures. USDA lowered World wheat imports 4 mmt and down 20 mmt yoy and largest decline from previous year in 40 years. USDA raised exporters end stocks. US winter wheat crop rating could drop 1-3 pct due to dry plains and flooding in SRW area.
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