Grain Futures Mostly Lower

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are mostly lower. SX is down 4 cents near 13.80. SMZ is near 408.6. BOZ is near 67.08. CZ is down 4 cents and near 6.78. WZ is down 8 cents and near 8.52. KWZ is down 6 cents and near 9.46. MWZ is down 1 cent and near 9.54.

US Midwest is dry. SE US south plains could see rains but 2nd week is dry again. E Australia is too wet. Argentina is dry but rains are forecast. Ukraine and Russia are too wet.

Soybean futures are lower on talk of lower demand. 63 pct of US soybean crop is harvested. IL 57, IA 74, SD 82, NE 78, OH 51 and AR 62. There is talk that China needs more imported soybean and plan to increase storage capacity. US Miss river water levels are in decline. This backs up soybeans in the country and favors movement to crushers. Soyoil futures up on lower NOPA soyoil stocks. Brazil soybean plantings are 20 pct. US soybean export window is slowly closing.

Corn futures are lower on concern about US exports. US corn exports are down 21 pct with export commit down 50 pct from ly. Corn futures are also lower due to talk Russia may extend Ukraine export corridor. The only issue is that exports may not be allowed to EU. US is considering sanctions against 5 Turkish grain companies due to them importing stolen Crimea corn. US corn harvest is 45 pct and behind normal. Farmers are not selling. Argentina corn plantings are lowest in 6 years due to drought. Rain is in the forecast.

Wheat futures are trending lower. Still most of US HRW states soil moistures are 74-96 pct short to very short. Showers are forecast for SE plains but second week is dry. Central and north US HRW farmers are planting in dust. US wheat exports are down 7 pct vs last year. Russia, Germany and French wheat export prices are lower. WZ is near key support at 8.49.

US stocks are higher. Crude is lower. US Dollar is higher. Gold, silver, copper, cocoa and sugar are lower. Managed funds focus is now to buy equities and sell commodities. Short commodities is due to coming US recession with many World economies also slowing down due to inflation. US announced they will sell oil from SPR. Some had thought they were going to buy oil to replenish reserves.

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