Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is up 9 cents and near 13.97. SMZ is near 417.9. BOZ is near 63.18. CZ is up 3 cents and near 4.91. WZ is down 4 cents and near 6.17. KWZ is down 10 cents and near 7.54. MWZ is down 1 cent and near 8.01. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher.
Soybean futures are higher. Pro Farmer tour estimated US soybean yield at 49.7 bpa and 1.5 below USDA. Forecast of warm and dry weather through Sep 10 could suggest final yield could be even lower. Some look for SX to test 14.15-14.50. Dalian soymeal prices, soybean, palmoil and soyoil traded higher. On the week China bot 5-6 Sept/Oct, 4-5 March/April Brazilian soybean cargoes, 8-10 Sept/Oct/Nov US gulf and 1-2 Nov US PNW. There is word that Argentina may stop offering soymeal for export in October.
Pro Farmer tour estimated US corn yield at 172 bpa vs USDA 175.1. Bears feel prices will continue to be under pressure as US harvest will start mid September. Key is final IA corn yield. China lowered the stamp duty on stock trades for the 1st time since 2008 to .05% from .1%. The CSRC will also limit the amount of IPO offerings but gave limited ideas on how they will accomplish this. Margin ratio for margin trading will be lowered to 80% from 100%. All being done to invigorate Chinese capital and equity markets.
Wheat futures are lower and near key support. Australia, Argentina, Canada and Black Sea crops could decline. EU is wet. There is no geopolitical and weather premium in US futures. Managed funds are net short 73,000 contracts vs 77,000 soybean long. Russia domestic wheat prices are higher. Trade watching World Central Bank could begin to ease rate hikes and impact on US Dollar. Some hope India and China may be buying raw material could help commodity prices.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
