MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is up 9 cents and near 13.97. SMZ is near 417.9. BOZ is near 63.18. CZ is up 3 cents and near 4.91. WZ is down 4 cents and near 6.17. KWZ is down 10 cents and near 7.54. MWZ is down 1 cent and near 8.01. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher.
Soybean futures are higher. Pro Farmer tour estimated US soybean yield at 49.7 bpa and 1.5 below USDA. Forecast of warm and dry weather through Sep 10 could suggest final yield could be even lower. Some look for SX to test 14.15-14.50. Dalian soymeal prices, soybean, palmoil and soyoil traded higher. On the week China bot 5-6 Sept/Oct, 4-5 March/April Brazilian soybean cargoes, 8-10 Sept/Oct/Nov US gulf and 1-2 Nov US PNW. There is word that Argentina may stop offering soymeal for export in October.
Pro Farmer tour estimated US corn yield at 172 bpa vs USDA 175.1. Bears feel prices will continue to be under pressure as US harvest will start mid September. Key is final IA corn yield. China lowered the stamp duty on stock trades for the 1st time since 2008 to .05% from .1%. The CSRC will also limit the amount of IPO offerings but gave limited ideas on how they will accomplish this. Margin ratio for margin trading will be lowered to 80% from 100%. All being done to invigorate Chinese capital and equity markets.
Wheat futures are lower and near key support. Australia, Argentina, Canada and Black Sea crops could decline. EU is wet. There is no geopolitical and weather premium in US futures. Managed funds are net short 73,000 contracts vs 77,000 soybean long. Russia domestic wheat prices are higher. Trade watching World Central Bank could begin to ease rate hikes and impact on US Dollar. Some hope India and China may be buying raw material could help commodity prices.
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