Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is up. CK is down. WK is down. KWK is down. MWK is down. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower as US debt is forecasted to increase 1 trillion every 100 days. Gold continues impressive rally to all-time highs on new talk recent inflations data could trigger US Fed to lower rates in June. World Central Banks are also buying Gold as safe haven due to increase geopolitical tension in East Europe and Middle East.
SK is near 11.98. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. USDA estimated US March 1 stocks 13 mil bu higher than trade guess and above last year. USDA estimated US 2024 soybean acres up 3.0 mil vs last year. Combination of higher US supply, SA supply and lower China demand for US soybeans could limit upside in soybean futures. Still, large Fund short, higher commodity prices led by gold, and unknown US summer weather could push soybean futures higher.
CK is near 4.39. New month but machines still not willing to cover shorts despite USDA estimating both March 1 corn stocks and 2024 corn acres below trade guesses. Some feel fund short position, dry Brazil 2nd crop weather, rally in Ukraine export prices and unknown US summer weather could push CN and CZ higher. Fact farmers could increase sales higher and continued pricing competition for US corn exports could offer resistance to sustained rallies.
WK is near 5.53. Post USDA, WK rallied after USDA dropped US SRW acres. Funds are short wheat. Wetter US 2nd week forecast could be weighing on wheat futures especailly US export demand remains slow. NOAA US 30 day forecast is wet east with Midwest temps warmer than normal. UAE Bank tightened Russia payment policy. Matif was lower and spreads widened.
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