Grain Calls Are Mixed


Grain calls are mixed. SF is near 14.36. SMF is near 407.4. BOF is near 72.20. CH is near 6.66. WH is near 8.13. KWH is near 9.19. MWH is near 9.52. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa and sugar are higher.

Soybeans at Sunrise

Soybean futures could be higher on talk that China Central Bank is putting money into housing market and and cutting reserve requirements by 50 basis points. Strict China covid policy though could reduce import demand with record new cases. Argentina weather is dry. Soybean plantings have slowed and are est at 19 pct vs 40 average. Some look for Argentina to announce a new soya peso deal today. South Brazil is dry. 2nd week forecast is key. Matif rapeseed are down to 10 week lows. Canada canola is at 2 month lows. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures are higher. Weekly US soybean export saless are est near 500-1,700 mt vs 3,030 last week.

On Wednesday, corn futures bounced off key support. Drop in demand for US corn export offers resistance and offsets higher US domestic cash basis and lack of new farmer selling. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 1,700-2,500 mt vs 1,170 last week. Dalian corn futures are higher with domestic China corn prices record high. Matif corn prices are lowest since July. Reports suggest Avian flu has dropped US bird flock by record 50.5 million birds. Argentina corn is 24 pct planted vs 34 average with crop rated 12 pc G/E vs 81 ly. Brazil election protest is raising domestic truck freight. US logistics is hampered by low river water levels and possible RR strike. Ukraine has shipped only 5 grain vessels since Nov 19. Some report that Ukraine exporters are buying/using generators to keep grain flowing.

There is talk of increase chance for rain in US S plains across TX and OK. KS, CO and NE remain dry, Delta and SE rain. Argentina wheat crop is rated 8 pct G/E. Harvest is 13 pct vs 32 average. Crop is est near 12.8 mmt vs USDA 15.5 and 22.1 ly. Australia futures are lower with higher than expected yields in west and better quality in east. Dry weather should aid Harvest. Matif wheat futures are lowest since August. Russia continues to bomb Ukraine cities and infrastructure. Half of Ukraine are in the dark. Russia wheat export prices are still the lowest for buyers. Egypt bought Russia wheat. Iraq bought Australia and Canada wheat. Pakistan is tendering for soft wheat. Turkey is tendering for 455 mt wheat, probably Russian. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 250-600 mt vs 290 last week. Oil World est World July-Sep wheat exports at 45.2 mmt vs 50.7 ly. Russia 9.9 vs 11.0, EU 10.2 vs 9.5, US 7.1 vs 7.0, Australia 6.9 vs 5.3 and Ukraine 3.1 vs 8.9.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

ADM & Industry News

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now