Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
The second quarter gross domestic product increased 2.1% quarter-to-quarter when up 2.3% was expected, and personal consumption expenditures on an annualized basis were up 0.8% when a gain of 1.7% was estimated.
Jobless claims in the week ended September 23 were 204,000 when 211,000 were anticipated.
The 9:00 central time August pending home sales index is predicted to show a 0.9% increase.
Traders will closely monitor comments from Fed Chair Powell who will speak at 3:00 this afternoon.
If Congress does not pass a stopgap funding measure before Sunday, a shutdown of some agencies could delay the routine release of economic data on employment, inflation, wages and output.
Stock index futures are oversold at these levels.
CURRENCY FUTURES
Yesterday the U.S. dollar index advanced to the highest level since December 2022 but is lower today.
The bullish influence of the ongoing hawkish Federal Reserve remains the dominant influence.
In addition, there is a flight to safety influence supporting the greenback in light of reports that little if any progress was made on resolving the debt ceiling issue.
Although interest rate differential expectations remain favorable for the greenback, the U.S. dollar index appears to be overbought at these elevated levels.
German inflation fell to its lowest level in two years. Consumer prices advanced 4.3% from a year ago in September, compared with 6.4% in August.
The economic sentiment indicator in the euro area fell slightly to 93.3 in September 2023, which is down from a revised 93.6 in the previous month. However, this surpassed market predictions of 92.5.
Australia’s retail sales increased 0.2% in August, which fell short of the predicted 0.3% gain.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
The 30-year Treasury bond futures declined to new lows for the move.
The Treasury will auction 7-year notes today.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is an 81% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged and a 19% probability of a 25 basis point increase at its November 1 policy meeting.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
