Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SF is up 12 cents and near 13.12. SMZ is near 435.1. BOZ is near 52.20. CZ is up 3 cents and near 4.82. WZ is unch and near 5.78. KWZ is down 3 cents and near 6.51. MWZ is up 2 cents and near 7.26. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. War continues to add risk to markets and reduces trade volume.
Soybean futures are higher. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and SBO futures were higher. Higher soymeal futures could now be slowing demand. Argentina rains are helping planting conditions. Lower Argentina crush could help demand for US soymeal and soyoil. Central Brazil rains appear to be spotty. Brazil soybean plantings are slowed. Weekly US soybean export sales were near 50 mil bu with total commit near 818 mil bu, down 29 pct vs ly and vs USDA est of down 12 pct.
Corn futures are higher. CZ is trading between 4.75 and 4.85. Slow US farmer selling is beginning to support basis. Brazil could see showers this week. Drier next week. Weekly US corn export sales were 53 mil bu. Total commit is up 24 pct vs ly and USDA est of 27 pct increase. Ukraine corn crop could be near 31 mmt vs USDA est of 28. Exports are est near 25 mmt vs USDA 19. Corn futures rallied yesterday on rumor Ukraine corridor was closed. Today corridor is open. Corn futures may be a wait and see trade. Waiting for SA weather, Ukraine export pace and US export demand.
Wheat futures are mixed. WZ remains between 5.72 support and 5.91 resistance. USDA will start weekly WW crop ratings Monday. Some could see as high as 50 pct G/E and highest since 2019. Wheat futures remain volatile near season lows. Russia est crop near 93 mmt vs USDA 85. Exports could be 1 mmt per week.
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