Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
Market Outlook for US and South America Regions
Grains
After the April USDA report, soybean futures remain rangebound, while corn and wheat futures rallied. May soybeans traded between 13.64 and 14.56 and May Chicago wheat between 6.27 and 6.57. May corn traded between 5.65 and 6.01. In South America, rains are slowing the Argentina soybean harvest. Brazil is dry, which helped the soybean harvest but is stressing the second corn crop.
Lean Hogs
Lean hog futures traded the opposite of live cattle in March. As live cattle prices drifted sideways, lean hog prices continued the meteoric rally that began on January 20, 2021.
Live Cattle
Throughout March the U.S. cash cattle market moved sideways week after week with cash prices hovering at $114.00/cwt. April 2021 live cattle futures bottomed March 1 and traded sideways along with the cash market.
Stock Index Futures
S&P 500, Dow futures and NASDAQ futures advanced to new record highs due to vaccine and fiscal stimulus optimism, along with better than expected quarterly earnings results, especially form the banking sector.
US Dollar Index
In late March the U.S. dollar advanced to its highest level since November due to a spike in U.S. Treasury yields, which sparked a risk-off move in global currencies.
Eurocurrency
The euro currency has trended higher in April. Some of the gains were linked to a report that showed euro zone retail sales increased in February, beating expectations.
Crude Oil
Last week crude oil prices registered their largest weekly gain since early March in light of strong economic data from the U.S.
Gold
Gold prices increased after Federal Reserve officials, including Federal Reserve Chair Powell, indicated the central bank will not withdraw easy monetary policies anytime soon. The Fed has maintained its dovish stance in spite of pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease back on its accommodation.
Market Outlook for China and Asia Regions
The key Chinese and Asian event over the last 30 days has been China’s strong performance in foreign trade. Exports and imports jumped 30.3% and 38.1% year-on-year respectively. GDP increased 18.3% from last year. Other Asian countries including Japan, South Korea and Australia saw improvements, although New Zealand is still struggling.
Read April Edition
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