Global Ag News June 29
Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/4 in SRW, up 3 1/4 in HRW, up 13 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans down 1 1/4; Soymeal down $0.25; Soyoil up 0.59.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 9 3/4 in SRW, up 21 in HRW, up 39 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 26 1/2; Soybeans up 41 1/2; Soymeal up $0.19; Soyoil up 3.35.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 17 in SRW, up 9 1/2 in HRW, up 113 3/4 in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans down 61 1/2; Soymeal down $36.70; Soyoil up 1.83.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans down 88 yuan ; Soymeal up 48; Soyoil up 28; Palm oil up 110; Corn up 27 — Malasyian Palm is up 53. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 53 ringgit (+1.51%) at 3559.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Scattered showers through Tuesday, south Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday. East: Scattered showers through Thursday. Isolated showers east Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal south and above normal north Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.
The player sheet for 6/28 had funds: net buyers of 7,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 27,500 corn, buyers of 15,000 soybeans, buyers of 6,500 soymeal, and buyers of 5,000 soyoil.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 28 were: SRW Wheat down 6,834 contracts, HRW Wheat down 7,331, Corn down 28,173, Soybeans down 21,712, Soymeal down 4,211, Soyoil up 2,855.
There were changes in registrations (-50 Soyoil ). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 16 Oats; 0 Corn; 13 Soybeans; 668 Soyoil; 442 Soymeal; 1,249 HRW Wheat.
- WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said it bought 180,000 tonnes of Romanian wheat in an international tender for shipment Aug. 25 to Sept. 5.
- WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 55,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender which closed on Thursday
- WHEAT TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase a total of about 395,000 tonnes of red milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued a tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of wheat, with a bidding deadline of July 6
- WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat
U.S. Inspected 1.008m Tons of Corn for Export, 104k of Soybean
In week ending June 24, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.
- Soybeans: 104k tons vs 205k the previous wk, 335k a yr ago
- Corn: 1,008k tons vs 1,776k the previous wk, 1,241k a yr ago
- Wheat: 286k tons vs 551k the previous wk, 515k a yr ago
Russia’s Winter, Spring Wheat Yields Seen Below Average: MARS
Wheat crops faced a difficult start to the season due to a dry, warm autumn and cold spells during winter, the EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said on Monday in a report.
- Frequent rains during spring helped give a “fair” yield outlook for winter crops in most of the European area of Russia
- A persistent water deficit in Asian areas of Russia and unusually warm temperatures has weighed on yield estimates for spring crops
- In Kazakhstan, spring-crop yields are seen “close to the historical trend,” but more rain is also needed to sustain that outlook, MARS said in a separate report
Brazil asks China to clarify new soy standard, official says
Brazil has asked China to clarify certain aspects of a new national soybean standard that changes quality requirements for the grain, including how they will be implemented and assessed, a Brazilian Agriculture Ministry official said on Monday.
China’s proposed new standard for the oilseeds, currently under discussion at the World Trade Organization, is expected to replace one from 2009, said Glauco Bertoldo, who directs Dipov, the agriculture ministry’s inspection services department for vegetable products.
China notified the WTO in February and the new proposal comes as Brazil revises its own soy standard, the official said.
The new Chinese standard will set the terms and definitions, classification, quality requirements, test methods, inspection rules, labeling, packaging, storage, and transportation requirements for soybeans.
However, one potential issue relates to soy’s maximum moist levels, set at 13% under China’s new proposed standard, below Brazil’s 14% threshold.
China to Sell 4.7M Tons of Low-Grade Wheat for Feed Use: Portal
China will sell 4.7 million tons of low quality wheat from state stockpiles to some designated animal feed mills, according to cngrain.com, a state-backed industry portal.
- This year’s harvest consists a large amount of wheat with high levels of vomitoxin, which is not suitable for human consumption
- Quality deteriorated due to frequent rain in Shandong and Hebei
- Wheat use in feed production is seen at 38m tons in 2020-21, up 145% y/y, as the grain is used to substitute expensive corn
- Domestic prices of standard quality wheat may continue to rise
French wheat crop rating declines, barley harvest starts – MIST
An estimated 79% of the French soft wheat crop was in good or excellent condition in the week to June 21, down from 81% the previous week, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Friday.
Indonesia to impose new palm oil export levies on July 2 -statement – Reuters
Indonesia to impose new palm oil export levies starting on July 2, the Estate Crop Fund Agency (BPDP) said in a statement on Tuesday.
The world’s top palm oil exporter last week said it will change its levy structure for palm oil exports, cutting the ceiling rate for crude palm oil levies (CPO) from $255 to $175 per tonne after criticism from stakeholders.
EU trims 2021/22 wheat harvest and stocks forecasts
The European Commission on Thursday trimmed its forecast of usable production of common wheat in European Union’s 27 member countries in 2021/22 to 125.8 million tonnes from 126.2 million estimated last month.
- The reduced forecast was nonetheless 7% above the 2020/21 crop of 117.2 million tonnes, the Commission’s monthly supply and demand data showed.
- The EU is widely expected to produce more wheat this year as farmers were able to expand the planted area after rain-disrupted sowing the previous season and with late-spring weather helping crop growth.
- The Commission kept unchanged its outlook for EU exports of common wheat, or soft wheat, in 2021/22 at 30.0 million tonnes. That compared with an expected 27.0 million tonnes in the 2020/21 season that ends on June 30.
- However, other demand factors were revised up, with projected wheat use in biofuel and livestock feed increased by 300,000 tonnes each to 3.4 million and 41.3 million tonnes, respectively.
- The reduced harvest outlook and upward demand adjustments outweighed a 200,000 tonne rise in expected imports, now seen at 2.7 million tonnes, and led the Commission to cut its 2021/22 common wheat stocks forecast to 10.1 million tonnes from 10.8 million in May.
- Projected stocks next season were still up sharply from an expected 8.8 million tonnes at the end of 2020/21.
- Usable production of maize in 2021/22 was estimated at 70.6 million tonnes, down 400,000 tonnes from the May forecast.
- Projected EU maize imports for 2020/21 and 2021/22 were unchanged from last month at 15 million tonnes for both seasons.
- In oilseeds, the Commission kept its 2021/22 rapeseed production estimate at 16.7 million tonnes, but raised forecast imports by 400,000 tonnes to 6.2 million, equal ling the level expected this season. (Reporting by Gus Trompiz Editing by Sybille de La Hamaide and Mark Potter)
Egypt Wheat Purchases Trail Prior Year Early in Season (Table)
- Romanian cargoes accounted for all sales in a tender Monday
- It’s third time Egypt has bought wheat in a tender for 2021-22
Egypt’s state buyer bought 180,000 tons of Romanian wheat on Monday in its third tender booking for the new season, with total purchases running about 19% below a similar time last year.
Key highlights of the tender:
- Egypt booked supply exclusively from Romania, increasing the country’s market share to more than half of this season’s sales.
- The volume — totaling three cargoes — was the lowest since a December tender.
- The purchase follows a canceled tender in mid-June amid surging freight costs.
WHEAT/CEPEA: Sowing advances in both Brazil and Argentina
Cepea, June 28 – Agents from the wheat market are keeping an eye on crops. In Brazil and in Argentina, wheat sowing is advancing, and farmers are closely watching out for crops and the weather. In general, wheat crops have developed well in both countries, and the output may set a record in Brazil.
In Paraná (PR), until June 21, wheat sowing had reached 92% of the area estimated for the state, according to Seab/Deral, with 95% of crops in good conditions, and 5%, in average conditions. So far, rainfall has been satisfactory, and the frosts registered in the state did not damage the wheat crops, which are still tolerant of low temperatures. In the report released this month, Seab/Deral revised up estimates for the wheat area in PR to 1.18 million hectares (against 1.14 million hectares last season), and the harvest is expected to total 3.87 million tons, a record.
In Rio Grande do Sul (RS), wheat sowing has surpassed a million hectares, according to Emater/RS, area 13.29% larger than that in 2020. The output in RS is expected to total 2.89 million tons, 37.81% up from that in the previous season.
In Argentina, according to information from the Bolsa de Cereales (Buenos Aires Grains Exchange), 70.9% of the area allocated to wheat crops had been sown until June 23, an advance of 13.5 percentage points in the week. Almost all crops (95.4%) are in normal and excellent conditions.
IGC raises forecast for 2021/22 global corn crop – MIST
The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for global corn (maize) production in the 2021/22 season mainly driven by an improved outlook for number two producer China.
In its monthly update, the inter-governmental body raised its global corn production outlook by 7 million tonnes to a record 1.201 billion tonnes.
It raised China’s 2021/22 corn crop forecast to 272.8 million tonnes from 267.3 million.
The IGC trimmed its forecast for the 2021/22 global wheat crop by 1 million tonnes to a still record 789 million tonnes.
The report noted, however, that despite record crops of corn and wheat there would only be a marginal rise in global grain stocks in 2021/22.
EU 2020/21 soybean imports at 15.03 mln T by June 27, rapeseed 6.30 mln T
European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 15.03 million tonnes by June 27, data published by the European Commission showed on Monday.
That compared with 15.25 million tonnes cleared by the same week last season, the data showed.
EU rapeseed imports in 2020/21 had reached 6.30 million tonnes, compared with 5.99 million a year ago.
Soymeal imports so far in 2020/21 were at 16.52 million tonnes against 17.93 million a year earlier, while palm oil imports were at 5.21 million tonnes versus 5.79 million a year ago.
Since Jan. 1, the European Commission’s data has covered the EU’s 27 countries only, whereas previous figures up to Dec. 31 covered both the EU-27 and Britain.
Brazil contracts 1.1bn litres in 80th biodiesel auction
Brazil’s Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANP) announced on Friday that the country’s 80th biodiesel auction has contracted about 1.1 billion litres (290.5m gallons) in total.
- The average price of BRL 5.485 per litre achieved in the tender resulted in a cumulative value of approximately BRL 6.05 billion (USD 1.2bn/EUR 1bn). In all, 43 producers offered some 1.46 billion litres in the tender.
- Roughly 57.7 million were negotiated in the first day, a combined 917.68 million in the following two days and around 126.86 million in the final day.
- The 80th tender covers domestic biofuel supply from July 1 to August 31, 2021.
- Brazil’s biodiesel auctions are organised to ensure the steady mandatory increase of biodiesel in diesel sold at the pump, established in the 13,263 law and ANP Resolution 16, ANP noted.
Indonesia’s Revised Palm Oil Export Levy Effective on July 2
The government at the world’s top palm oil producer has issued a revised rule on palm oil that will cut the maximum rate imposed on shipments of the tropical oil, said Musdhalifah Machmud, deputy for food and agriculture and the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, by phone Tuesday.
- The revised rule will take effect on July 2
China’s Hog Market Bottoms Out as Rout Trips Government Alert
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China’s hog market looks to have bottomed out after a rout in prices tripped the government’s new alert system for the first time, prompting a notice that the authorities will begin buying pork for national stockpiles.
Wholesale pork prices have fallen more than 50% this year, which left many farmers losing money on their herds, although hog futures in Dalian actually began to recover last week after the sale of super-fat pigs came to an end and as low prices attracted consumers. The anticipation of government intervention also probably played its part in the turnaround.
The new warning system, announced earlier this month, is based on a ratio of hog prices to the cost of the corn used as animal feed. China often uses state stockpiles to intervene in agricultural markets, although recent efforts have centered on releasing grain reserves to cool markets after a recovery in the hog herd from the ravages of African swine fever forced up crop prices.
China is trying to strike a balance between damping inflation of staple foods, as part of its broader campaign to control commodities markets, while preventing declines in price that threaten rural economies and food security.
Biofuel Waivers for Refineries Will Be Limited, Trade Group Says
The Supreme Court ruling allowing EPA to waive refineries from biofuel-blending mandates even if they haven’t received continuous exemptions won’t “reopen the floodgates” for more waivers, Renewable Fuels Association President Geoff Cooper says.
- “We fully expect that the number of small refinery exemptions granted by EPA moving forward will be greatly constrained” by separate holdings from the lower court ruling that was under review, Cooper says in a call with reporters
- NOTE: Lower court found refineries are able to pass through Renewable Fuel Standard compliance costs and that exemptions can only be granted if economic hardship is directly tied to the RFS program
- Cooper says he believes EPA is interested in reviving a proposal to expand disclosures about refineries seeking and securing exemptions
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