Global Ag News for Sept 15.23

TOP HEADLINES

El Niño Is Poised to Roil Global Weather Through March, US Says

El Niño, which roils weather on six continents, has a 95% chance of lasting through the Northern Hemisphere winter from January to the end of March, according to the US Climate Prediction Center.

• Waters across the equatorial Pacific warmed during August
• El Niño years have been known to bring drought to parts of India, Australia, and Panama, while leading to more rain across parts of California, Japan and crop areas of Brazil and Argentina
• El Niño can also promote wind shear across the Atlantic, limiting hurricane development, but record-warm water has kept tropical systems coming
• The US Climate Prediction Center said El Niño began in June, but the Australia Bureau of Meteorology, which uses different criteria, has yet to declare one

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/2 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, down 1/2 in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans down 2 1/2; Soymeal down $0.50; Soyoil up 0.07.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 1/2 in SRW, up 4 1/4 in HRW, up 12 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans down 5; Soymeal down $2.50; Soyoil up 1.29.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 5 in SRW, up 9 in HRW, up 16 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans down 9 1/2; Soymeal down $5.10; Soyoil down 0.72.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 24.7% in SRW, down 17.1% in HRW, down 16.6% in HRS; Corn is down 29.2%; Soybeans down 10.6%; Soymeal down 16.3%; Soyoil down 1.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 23) Soybeans up 23 yuan; Soymeal up 44; Soyoil up 92; Palm oil up 64; Corn up 18 — Malaysian Palm is up 23. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 23 ringgit (+0.61%) at 3784.

There were changes in registrations (4 Corn, 220 Soybeans). Registration total: 3,005 SRW Wheat contracts; 741 Oats; 4 Corn; 220 Soybeans; 67 Soyoil; 85 Soymeal; 402 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 14 were: SRW Wheat up 672 contracts, HRW Wheat down 386, Corn down 9,511, Soybeans up 2,387, Soymeal up 2,399, Soyoil down 2,370.

Northern Plains: Light showers continued with a system Thursday, but should not impact harvest too much. Another system will move in during the middle of next week with a chance for more widespread and heavier showers. Temperatures will waffle a bit but end up mostly above normal going into next week.

Central/Southern Plains: A system that moved into the region on Thursday will continue with showers through Saturday, with heavier showers possible in Texas yet. Another system moves into the region mid-late next week with scattered showers. Moderate to heavy amounts will be possible with this round as well, which will slow down the maturing process for corn and soybeans, but perk up soil moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment. 

Midwest: Most of the recent rain was light but there were pockets of moderate amounts in there as well. Another system moves through Friday through the weekend but with limited showers. Temperatures will rise next week. Early harvest conditions continue to be favorable, but more rain would be welcome for immature crops and winter wheat establishment. 

Brazil: A front brought heavy rain to southern Brazil this week and continues into central Brazil through Friday, but with lighter showers. Rain is favorable for wheat, except where flooding occurs. Heavy rain could cause issues with the remaining safrinha corn harvest and early planting, but is setting up most of Brazil with good conditions for establishment as planting increases throughout the month. 

Argentina: Rainfall has been increasing lately, easing the country out of last season’s historic drought. Another front and system will move through early-mid next week. Northern areas stand to benefit the most from rainfall, but the country is in good shape for developing wheat and any early corn planting.

The player sheet for Sept. 14 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,000 corn, sellers of 5,000 soybeans, buyers of 6,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries bought a total of 118,490 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 21,700 metric tonnes of rice all to be sourced from China.
• SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued a tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of soymeal from Brazil, Argentina or India. The deadline for submission of price offers was Sept. 13
• CORN TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued a tender to purchase up to 180,000 metric tons of animal feed corn from Brazil, Europe, the Black Sea region, Russia or Ukraine. The deadline for submission of price offers was Sept. 13.
• CORN, BARLEY TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued international tenders to purchase up to 80,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 30,000 metric tons of feed barley. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tenders is Sept. 14.

TODAY

US Sold 704K Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 779K of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Sept. 7.

• Soybean sales fell to 704k tons vs 1,783k in the previous week
• Corn sales fell to 779k tons vs 950k in the previous week
• All wheat sales rose to 438k tons vs 382k in the previous week

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Sept. 7, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• China was the top buyer of soybeans in the week with 296k tons
• China was the top buyer of corn and Mexico led in wheat

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Sept. 7, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 6.3k tons of the 23k tons of pork sold in the week
• China led in beef purchases

CROP SURVEY: US August Soybean Crush Seen at 168.7M Bushels

Projections are based on a survey of six analysts conducted by Bloomberg News on Sept. 13-14.

• Soybean crush seen 1.9% higher vs August of last year, and a decline of 2.7% vs a month ago
• Oil stocks at the end of last month seen at 1.505b lbs vs 1.565b a year earlier
• The National Oilseed Processors Association is scheduled to release its monthly report on Sept. 15.

Canada Wheat Output Forecast Drops 13% After Drought: StatsCan

Canadian farmers are projected to produce more corn and soybeans but less wheat, canola, barley and oats compared with 2022, according to Statistics Canada, the country’s national statistics agency.

• Wheat production in Canada is projected to decrease 13% year-over-year to 29.8 million metric tons
  • Yields are forecast to drop 17.6% due to dryness
• Durum wheat, used to make pasta, will see production drop 30% as yields fall 29% year-over-year
• Canola output is seen falling 7% to 17.4 million metric tons
  • Yields are seen dropping 10% year over year
• Corn and soybeans yields were lowered, but production was slightly raised on a bigger-than-expected harvested areas
• Lower-than-average precipitation and high temperatures have resulted in poorer crop conditions compared to 2022, said StatsCan

Argentina Wheat Condition Improves After Rains: Exchange

Rains over the past week improved wheat plants growing on the Pampas crop belt, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly report.

24% of crop in a good-to-excellent condition vs. 18% last week

Argentine Corn Production Estimate Sept. 14: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2023-24 corn planted area est. held at 7.3m ha
  • Planting 2.2% complete

Ukraine Urges Poland Not to Impose Grain Import Ban

Kyiv expects a “balanced and reasoned decision of the European Commission not to renew restrictions on Ukrainian foodstuffs after September 15,” according to Ihor Zhovkva, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s deputy chief of staff focused on foreign affairs.

• “Once again we urge Poland to back this wise step,” he said in comments made at a conference posted on his Facebook page
• NOTE: Poland has said it will extend its ban on Ukraine grain imports if the European Union relaxes its own restrictions Friday
  • Poland was the first to issue a ban after the threat of a grain glut sparked protests by domestic farmers — a central political issue ahead of an October election
• “Decisions, which will be made, should be based not on emotions, politics or election campaigning but on facts”

One Ship Leaves Ukraine’s Odesa Port, Lawmaker Says

A vessel has left the Ukrainian port of Odesa, the latest ship to use a new maritime corridor out of the country, Oleksiy Honcharenko, a lawmaker, said on Telegram.

• The ship is the fifth vessel to have left ports in the southern city of Odesa after Russia in July pulled out of a deal to allow grain exports
• Ship is under Cayman Islands flag, Honcharenko, who is originally from Odesa, said
• NOTE, from Sept. 1: Two More Commodity Ships Leave Ukraine Port in North Black Sea
• NOTE: Russia blocked Ukraine’s Black Sea and Sea of Azov ports after it launched full-scale invasion in February 2022

Ukraine’s Grain Harvest Advances 13.5% From Last Year: Ministry

Grain harvest was 29.5m tons as of Sept. 15 for the season that started on July 1, Ukrainian Agriculture Ministry Says in a statement on its website.

• The total includes:
  • 22.15m tons of wheat, up 15.4% y/y
  • 5.82m tons of barley, up 5.9% y/y
  • 55,800 tons of corn, down 12.4% y/y
• Sunflower seed harvest advanced 12% from same period a year ago to 1.04m tons
• Soybean harvest is so far 624,800 tons vs 172,000 year ago

Indonesia Aug. Palm Oil Exports Slightly Increase to 2.78M Tons

Indonesia’s exports of crude palm oil and its derivatives rose 1% m/m to 2.78 million tons in Aug., according to data from the statistic agency on Friday.

• Exports increased from 2.75 million tons in July
• Jan.-Aug. exports at 17.42m tons vs 13.94m tons a year ago

Indonesia Sets Sept. 16-30 CPO Reference Price at $798.83/Ton

Government sets crude palm oil reference price at $798.83/ton for the last two weeks of September, according to trade ministry’s decree on website.The reference price will keep the export tax for the period at $33/ton and the additional levy at $85/ton.

India Govt cuts wheat stock limit for traders, wholesalers to 2,000 tonne

New Delhi: The government on Thursday reduced the stock limit on wheat to 2,000 tonne for traders, wholesalers, and big-chain retailers from 3,000 tonnes with immediate effect to check the rise in prices, food and public distribution secretary Sanjeev Chopra said. The quantity remains the same for processors.

Chopra said traders, wholesalers, and big-chain retailers have to reduce their stocks and meet the revised limit by 12 October.

Despite sufficient stock available, wheat prices have been rising on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) over the last one month. “Although there is adequate availability of wheat in the country, I think there are some elements which are trying to create some artificial scarcity,” Chopra said addressing the media on Thursday.

India Has No Immediate Plan to Scrap Wheat Import Levy: Official

Supplies of wheat in the country are enough to meet local demand, Sanjeev Chopra, the country’s food secretary, told reporters in New Delhi on Thursday.

• NOTE: September Rains Will Limit Risks to Food Supplies, India Says
• The government will sell more wheat in the open market if needed to cool domestic prices
  • Wheat stockpile limits have been tightened
  • NOTE: Food prices, which make up about half of India’s inflation basket, rose 9.9% from a year ago in August
• There is no plan to import wheat from Russia, said Chopra, refuting some media reports that said India was considering to buy 9m tons of the grain from Moscow
• The country is expected to harvest a “bumper” rice crop in 2023-24, Chopra said
• India is prepared to meet sugar demand during upcoming festivals, supplies are enough
  • The country has about 8.5m tons of sugar stockpiles at present, enough to meet local demand for three-and-a-half months, Chopra said
  • NOTE: Sugar cane harvesting normally begins in October
• Rice, wheat, sugar and edible oil prices are not expected to rise during key festivals

Hot Weather May Break Records in Australia With Grains at Risk

• Some parts of the nation may see temperatures as high as 38C
• Wheat forecast already trimmed this year on drier conditions

Australia is facing a period of hot weather over the coming week that may break seasonal records and threaten some grain crops.

Parts of southern Australia are expected to be baked by temperatures as high as 38C (100F), according to Miriam Bradbury, a senior meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorology. Some regions may see temperatures as much as 15C higher than the seasonal average, she added.

“It is possible we may see some records broken,” said Bradbury, who added that extreme weather is expected to become more frequent. “Whether that’s severe storms or droughts or heat waves, we expect to see them happen more often, and we expect to see them happen more out of season.”

Extreme and unseasonal weather is becoming a huge global issue, with the world recording its warmest August in at least 174 years, increasing the odds that 2023 will be one of the hottest years on record. Australia’s climate has warmed by an average of 1.47C since national records began in 1910.

The nation has already reduced its forecast for the wheat harvest due to drier conditions, and the latest bout of hot weather could put additional strain on crops. Higher temperatures combined with a lack of rain is likely to draw down subsoil moisture that growers are relying on to get through the season, according to a spokesperson from industry group GrainGrowers.

Australia has just finished its winter, with summer almost three months away. Farmers typically start harvesting their wheat around November.

US Corn and Soybean Crops Increase Drought Exposure: Sept. 12

The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending Sept. 12, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Corn crops experiencing moderate to intense drought rose by 5 percentage points from the previous week to 54%
• Drought exposure at this time last year was 30%
• Soybean crops in drought also rose by 5 points, reaching 48%

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 173k tons in the week ending Sept. 9 from 122k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 47% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 34.5% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $28.77 per short ton, an increase of $3.32 from the previous week

 

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