Global Ag News for Sept 11.23

TOP HEADLINES

Philippines May Scrap Rice Price Cap Soon as Harvest Starts

The Philippine government may lift a ceiling on rice prices in two weeks as local harvests start to come in, Trade Secretary Alfredo Pascual said.

• The price cap, imposed last week, is necessary to prevent further increases in rice prices, Pascual told reporters on the sidelines of an event in Manila on Monday.
• The Philippines is still in discussions with major rice exporter Vietnam for imports of the staple grain, he added.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 4 1/4 in SRW, down 8 1/2 in HRW, down 6 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans up 2 1/4; Soymeal up $2.60; Soyoil down 0.40.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 3 1/2 in SRW, up 3/4 in HRW, up 4 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 3; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal up $4.60; Soyoil down 3.19.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 10 1/2 in SRW, down 3 3/4 in HRW, down 2 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 6 1/4; Soybeans down 3 1/2; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil down 2.38.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 28.4% in SRW, down 18.4% in HRW, down 20.8% in HRS; Corn is down 31.0%; Soybeans down 11.2%; Soymeal down 13.4%; Soyoil up 0.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 23) Soybeans down 30 yuan; Soymeal up 8; Soyoil up 64; Palm oil up 24; Corn up 3 — Malaysian Palm is down 116. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 116 ringgit (-3.03%) at 3714.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 3,005 SRW Wheat contracts; 741 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 67 Soyoil; 85 Soymeal; 387 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 8 were: SRW Wheat up 3,659 contracts, HRW Wheat up 789, Corn down 422, Soybeans up 4,221, Soymeal down 1,011, Soyoil down 274.

Northern Plains: Scattered showers moved through the region over the weekend. Additional light showers will move through with a couple of systems this week but should not impact harvest too much. Mild temperatures early in the week will increase later in the week.

Central/Southern Plains: A front brought scattered showers into the region over the weekend and continues south through Wednesday. Another system promptly moves into the region on Thursday and continues through Saturday, making for a week’s worth of showers for the region. Moderate to heavy amounts will continue to be possible, which will slow down the maturing process for corn and soybeans, but perk up soil moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment.

Midwest: A front brought some showers into the region over the weekend, but they were mostly light. The system will continue to bring more showers through Tuesday along with another burst of mild air. Drier conditions follow. Early harvest conditions continue to be favorable, but more rain would be welcome for immature crops and winter wheat planting and establishment.

Delta: It was mostly dry over the weekend. A front will move through Tuesday and Wednesday with isolated showers. Another system will move through this weekend into early next week and may bring some showers as well. Any rain could cause delays in the soybean harvest, but would help immature cotton.

Brazil: A front brought heavy rain to southern Brazil over the weekend. Another will bring more heavy rain potential Tuesday through Thursday. Rain is favorable for wheat, except where flooding occurs. Heavy rain could cause issues with the remaining safrinha corn harvest and planting, but is setting up most of Brazil with good conditions as planting increases throughout the month.

Argentina: Rainfall has been increasing lately and another front moving through early this week should produce more showers, easing the country out of last season’s historic drought. Quieter conditions follow for the next week, but the country is in good shape for developing wheat and any early corn planting.

The player sheet for Sept. 8 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,000 corn, sellers of 2,500 soybeans, buyers of 3,500 soymeal, and  sellers of 500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 121,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in the 2023/24 marketing year that began Sept. 1.
• WHEAT PURCHASE UPDATE: A group of South Korean flour mills rejected all offers and made no purchase of around 45,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from Canada sought in an international tender on Thursday.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: A Syrian state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase and import 200,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 21,700 metric tonnes of rice all to be sourced from China.
• FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 60,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 20,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Dec. 31 and arrive in Japan by Feb. 29 via an auction to be held on Sept. 13.

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following table shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Aug. 31, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Countries listed as Unknown Buyers purchased the most soybeans in the week with 864k tons
• Mexico was the top buyer of corn and Taiwan led in wheat

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Aug. 31, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 8.5k tons of the 29.4k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

China’s Soy Imports Raised to Record 101m Tons, USDA Unit Says

Soybean imports in world’s top buyer China are estimated at a record 101 million metric tons in the 2022-23 marketing season, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service says in a report.

• That’s above USDA’s official estimate of 100m tons
• NOTE: Marketing year ended Aug. 31
• NOTE: USDA releases its monthly WASDE report Tuesday

Canada July 31 Wheat Stocks Fell to 3.58M Tons: StatsCan

Statistics Canada in Ottawa releases principal field crops report for stocks as of July 31.

• Total wheat stocks fell to 3.58m tons vs 3.66m in same period last year
• Durum wheat fell to 0.4m tons vs 0.57m
• Canola rose to 1.51m tons vs. 1.33m in the same period last year

Modi Seeks Global Initiative for 20% Ethanol Blending

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called on G-20 nations to collaborate on a fresh fuel blending initiative, which aspires to increase ethanol mix in gasoline to as much as 20%.

• The project, named the Global Biofuel Alliance, was revealed during Modi’s remarks at the G-20 summit in New Delhi
• Additionally, Modi suggested that G-20 nations begin collaborations on a Green Credit Initiative, to foster further environmental conservation
• “Carbon Credit emphasizes what should not be done; it has a negative perspective,” he added

Malaysia Palm Oil Reserves Rise Most in Two Years on Output Jump

• Stockpiles surge 23% to 2.12 million tons in August, MPOB says
• Report is a “shocker” and bearish for palm oil prices: Bagani

Palm oil inventories in Malaysia surged the most in two years to cross the 2-million-ton level on stronger-than-expected production and weaker exports in the second-biggest grower.

Stockpiles jumped 23% in August from a month earlier to 2.12 million tons, according to a report by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board on Monday. That’s the biggest monthly increase since August 2021 and the highest since January. It’s also above the 1.90 million tons estimated in a Bloomberg survey.

“The report is a shocker and is clearly bearish for palm oil,” said Anilkumar Bagani, head of research at Mumbai-based Sunvin Group. End-stocks are up by a “staggering” amount, compared with July, as exports fell and local consumption dropped 27% to around 251,000 tons, he said.

Crude palm oil production climbed 8.9% to a 10-month high of 1.75 million tons, compared with 1.73 million tons predicted in the survey. The MPOB report showed Malaysian production climbed for a second month in August, after rising 11.2% in July.

The production trend has been confusing, Bagani said. Although industry players were anticipating that El Niño’s impact could curb palm yields from October, there’s still no indication of that happening, he said.

Exports fell 9.8% to 1.22 million tons, against the forecast of 1.33 million tons, the report showed.

China’s Soy Imports Raised to Record 101m Tons, USDA Unit Says

Soybean imports in world’s top buyer China are estimated at a record 101 million metric tons in the 2022-23 marketing season, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service says in a report.

• That’s above USDA’s official estimate of 100m tons
  • NOTE: Marketing year ended Aug. 31
• Estimate for 2023-24 season is 98.5m tons, below USDA’s official outlook for 99m

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Dollar appreciation and firm demand raise prices in BR

The US dollar appreciation against the Real, high demand from abroad and estimates for lower inventories in Brazil in the 2022/23 season have pushed up the domestic prices for soybean this week. Also, worse conditions of soybean crops in the United States helped to underpin values in Brazil.

According to a report from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply) released on September 6th, of the 154.61 million tons of soybean produced in Brazil in the 2022/23 season, 96.94 million are expected to be exported (1.37% more than that estimated last month) and 52.81 million are forecast to be processed in Brazil. The estimates for ending stocks (in December/23) were revised up to 5.87 million tons, 18% lower than that forecast in August.

It is important to consider that, this year, Brazil has exported 80.85 million tons of soybean, a record, according to Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat). However, in August, shipments decreased 13.5% from that registered in July, but increased 41% compared to that from Aug/22, totaling 8.3 million tons last month, a record for the period.

The major destinations for the Brazilian soybean last month were China, Spain, Argentina and Turkey. And the main national ports for soybean exports were Rio Grande (RS) and Paranaguá (PR). The average export value for soybean (in Real) closed at BRL 123.04 per 60-kg bag, the highest in three months.

This month, trades have been lower at the spot market of Paranaguá port. Thus, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa soybean Index remained practically stable (+0.05%) between August 31st and September 6th, at BRL 151.58/bag on Wednesday, 6th.

This scenario led to a higher number of deals being closed at the port of Rio Grande. Thus, soybean prices closed at BRL 161.03/bag at this port on Sept. 6th, the highest nominal level since March 21st.

Between Aug. 31st and Sept. 6th, the CEPEA/ESALQ Paraná Index for soybean rose 1.3%, to BRL 143.74/bag on Wednesday, 6th. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soybean prices increased 1.3% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.3% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). The US dollar valued 0.7%, to BRL 4.987 on Wednesday.

From now onwards, Brazilian soybean growers tend to focus on crop activities (2023/24 season), which may reduce the deals for the remaining of the crop. Thus, growers are also expected to monitor weather conditions more closely in South America.

CORN/CEPEA: International corn valuation underpins prices in BR

Cepea, September 8th – Corn prices have resumed rising in most of the regions surveyed by Cepea. The boost came from both the high volumes being exported and higher values at ports – because of international corn valuations and the dollar appreciation against the Real. Abroad, price rises were linked to concerns about the development of crops in the United States.

As the international demand has been high, some deals are being closed at BRL 65 per 60-kg bag at ports. Thus, liquidity has been higher at ports, in the spot market and for future delivery.

In the interior of Brazil, despite the recent price rises, consumers have not been closing deals in the spot market, since the harvest of the second crop is ending and supply may increase in the spot market. As for sellers, some growers still have high volumes to trade, however, valuations at ports made agents cautious about selling high volumes of corn, raising expectations for new valuations in the spot market.

Anec (National Association of Cereal Exporters) estimates Brazil will export 9.67 million tons of corn in September, a record for the month. In August, shipments totaled 9.39 million tons, according to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat), surpassing the 7.44 million tons exported in Aug/22.

PRICES – Between August 31st and September 6th, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn (Campinas, SP) rose 0.6%, to BRL 53.86/bag on Wednesday, 6. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn prices rose 0.2% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.7% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). The US dollar increased 0.7% over the past seven days, to BRL 4.978 on September 6th.

CROPS – The weather has been favorable to the harvest of the second crop – by September 3rd, 89.2% of the national crop had been harvested, according to data from Conab. Activities are still taking place in São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná.

‘Ball Really Is In Russia’s Court’ on Grain Deal Issue, US Says

The G-20 looks set to end without progress on reviving a UN-backed deal to allow Ukraine to ship its grain through the Black Sea, and at this point the “ball really is in Russia’s court” on the issue, Jon Finer, US deputy national security adviser, told reporters aboard Air Force One.

NOTE: Several countries had sought a breakthrough on the issue in recent weeks. However, Russia’s Vladimir Putin skipped the G-20, and a meeting between Putin and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan ahead of the summit failed to unblock the impasse.

Excluding Russia from grain deal talks will not be sustainable, Erdogan says

Any initiative to revive the Black Sea grain deal that isolates Russia is not likely to be sustainable, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said in a press briefing after the conclusion of the G20 summit in New Delhi on Sunday.

Russia quit the deal in July, a year after it was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, complaining that its own food and fertiliser exports faced obstacles and insufficient Ukrainian grain was going to countries in need.

Russia, Ukraine and Turkey are going to continue to discuss the grain deal, Erdogan added.

Russia is willing to send free grain to poorer countries, which Turkey favours, he told reporters, adding that Qatar had also agreed

Erdogan said he was not “hopeless” about reviving the grain deal.

The Turkish president also held talks with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the sidelines of the G20 summit regarding efforts to revive the deal, two sources with knowledge of the matter said, without giving further details.

Erdogan Urges G-20 to Meet Russian Demands on Grain Deal

• US, allies have resisted Moscow’s terms for restarting trade
• Erdogan has sought to balance amid Russia’s invasion

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is urging several Group of 20 leaders to meet some of Russia’s demands to try to revive a deal that had allowed Ukrainian grain shipments and eased global food prices.

Erdogan, who helped broker the original Black Sea Grain Initiative in 2022, is making the push in closed-door meetings with leaders during the G-20 summit in New Delhi this weekend, people familiar with the talks said.

Putin, Erdogan Talks End Without Reviving Ukraine Grain Deal

While Turkey’s efforts aren’t likely to sway Ukraine’s allies in the US and Europe, Erdogan’s embrace of Russia’s demands underlines the challenges he faces in his balancing act in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Turkey is eager to restore shipments under the UN-backed deal, which Moscow quit in July, but Erdogan failed to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to rejoin the agreement in talks in Sochi, Russia on Monday.

Turkey is asking world leaders to facilitate insurance of Russian food and fertilizer exports by Lloyd’s of London and to reconnect Moscow to the SWIFT system for international payments, according to three Turkish officials familiar with the discussions. They asked not to be named to discuss the sensitive matter.

G-20 members are expected to urge “immediate and unimpeded deliveries of grain, foodstuffs, and fertilizers/inputs from the Russian Federation and Ukraine,” according to people familiar with the discussions.

They are expected to say the deal is important to meet demand in developing countries, particularly in Africa, and to call for the end of “military destruction” or other attacks on relevant infrastructure.

The US and its allies dismiss Russia’s claims that the limits are restricting Moscow’s farm exports and have so far resisted calls to ease the sanctions.

Russia has rejected a compromise proposed by the UN, which would have been to set up a subsidiary of the sanctioned state farm bank Rosselkhozbank and allow that on SWIFT, several European diplomats said. They said Turkey frequently mentions the status of the grain talks during meetings. Ankara is trying to find consensus in an effort to revive the deal, an Indian official said.

Uncertainty about the future of supplies from one of the world’s largest grain exporters has contributed to weeks of volatility in global wheat prices, as has the surge in hostilities in and around the Black Sea.

Turkey is telling its counterparts that the way to revive the deal is to ease some sanctions, which Moscow claims prevent it from importing agricultural equipment such as tractors or spare parts, the Turkish officials said.

“And to add insult to injury, Russia is offering 1 million tonnes of grain to African countries in a parody of generosity,” European Council President Charles Michel said in remarks at the summit’s opening session. “What cynicism and contempt for African countries, when we know that the Black Sea agreement has so far delivered more than 30 million tonnes of exports, mainly to the most vulnerable countries.”

Ukraine has engaged in talks with Romania and Bulgaria on an alternative maritime route that would pass from Ukraine via Romanian territorial waters, the European diplomats said. That route, however, would only potentially cover some of the need.

Russia to return to grain deal once all Moscow’s conditions met, Lavrov says

Russia will return to the Black Sea grain deal ‘the same day’ as Moscow’s conditions for export of its own grain and fertilisers to the global markets are met, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters on Sunday.

Russia quit the deal in July, a year after it was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, complaining that its own food and fertiliser exports faced obstacles and that insufficient Ukrainian grain was going to countries in need.

“When all the necessary actions for removing obstacles for our grain and fertiliser exports are implemented, the same day we will return to the collective implementation of the Ukrainian part of the ‘Black Sea initiative'”, Lavrov told a briefing after attending a two-day G20 summit in New Delhi.

The G20 declaration on Saturday called for ‘full, timely and effective implementation to ensure the immediate and unimpeded deliveries of grain, foodstuffs, and fertilizers/inputs’ from Russia and Ukraine to meet demand in developing countries.

Supplies were obstructed after Russia invaded Ukraine last year in what Moscow calls a ‘special military operation’. The United Nations, Turkey and this year’s G7 chair Japan are trying to facilitate the resumption of grain supplies.

Ukraine opposes the idea of easing sanctions on Russia in order to revive a grain deal. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday he was not ‘hopeless’ about reviving the deal, and Russia, Ukraine and Turkey would continue to discuss it.

In a letter seen by Reuters this week, the UN told Russia a unit of Russian Agricultural Bank in Luxembourg could immediately apply to SWIFT to “effectively enable access” for the bank to the SWIFT international payments system within 30 days – the idea Lavrov has dismissed on Sunday.

Lavrov said that ‘no-one, including (U.N. Secretary-General Antonio) Guterres,’ has promised that the Russian Agricultural Bank would be reconnected to SWIFT, and that the bank’s Luxembourg unit has no license for banking operations and plans to close down.

“All the idea of his (Guterres) letter is that we should resume the Ukraine part of the grain deal and in return, in a month, something would be done for someone to be connected to SWIFT, in two-three months there would be some attempt to agree with Lloyd’s insurance company,” Lavrov said.

Russian Agricultural Bank could have SWIFT access within 30 days, UN tells Moscow

A Russian Agricultural Bank subsidiary in Luxembourg could immediately apply to SWIFT to “effectively enable access” for the bank to the international payments system within 30 days, the United Nations told Russia in a letter, seen by Reuters on Friday.

“SWIFT has confirmed that RSHB Capital S.A. would be eligible to apply for membership and access to SWIFT for food and fertilizer transactions, based on its current status as an issuer of debt securities,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Aug. 28.

Guterres outlined four measures that the United Nations could facilitate to improve Russia’s grain and fertilizer exports in a bid to convince Moscow to return to a deal that had allowed the safe Black Sea export of Ukrainian grain.

He told Lavrov that the U.N. was immediately ready to move on all measures “based on the clear understanding that their realization will lead to the Russian Federation’s return to the Black Sea Initiative and the full resumption of operations.”

The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed skepticism in a statement on Wednesday at the proposals made by Guterres.

“Instead of actual exemptions from sanctions, all Russia got was a new dose of promises from the UN Secretariat,” it said. “These recent proposals do not contain any new elements and cannot serve as a foundation for making any tangible progress in terms of bringing our agricultural exports back to normal.”

Russia quit the deal in July, a year after it was brokered by the U.N. and Turkey to combat a global food crisis that the U.N. said was worsened by Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine and Russia are both leading grain exporters.

Ukraine Will Complain to WTO if Poland Enacts New Grain Ban

• Minister says Ukraine needs to ensure free navigation
• UN-led grain agreement outdated after Russia attacked ports

Ukraine is prepared to file a complaint at the World Trade Organization if Poland introduces a unilateral ban on Ukrainian grain, said Deputy Economy Minister Taras Kachka.

“The Polish market is not critical for us. What is critically important is to remove restrictions,” Kachka said in an interview with Bloomberg.

Kyiv sees the Polish government’s position as having been driven by domestic politics or as “simply a mistake,” and is prepared for an extended procedure at the WTO, he said.

The main thing for Ukraine is to find its own routes to export commodities by sea, he added.

Ukraine has become more reliant on export channels through its EU neighbors, especially after President Vladimir Putin in July pulled Russia out of a year-old deal that allowed exports via Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.

Poland introduced a ban on incoming shipments from Ukraine in April which was followed by measures in Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria in response to complaints from their own farmers.

The European Union sought to diffuse the spat with a measure that allows Ukrainian grain to transit through the five countries. That arrangement expires on Sept 15. Poland has urged the EU extend it — and failing that may impose its own new, unilateral ban.

The import restrictions sought by Poland and the other EU members are a rare point of friction between Ukraine and some of its strongest backers against Russia’s invasion.

“For the sake of security we are working on our own corridor and it has already been tested and I think it will work normally, without Russia,” the deputy minister said. Once Russia started to actively attack Ukraine’s ports and commodity stockpiles, the agreement negotiated by the UN and Turkey in 2022 became obsolete, he said.

Kachka forecast that Ukraine’s export of agriculture products, including grains, oilseeds, sunflower oil and sunflower meal, will be over 60 million tons in 2023-2024 season, compared with 68 million tons a year earlier.

Black Sea Nitrogen Fertilizer Price Rises 17.3%

Nitrogen fertilizer, represented by Black Sea urea, rose 17.3% to $376 per metric ton in the week ended Sept. 8, according to Green Markets data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

• Black Sea urea dropped 4.94% during the last month and was up 39.1% during the last 3 months
• Major Urea nitrogen benchmark prices were mixed
• Shares of Acron PJSC and Yara International ASA were up in the latest week
• Major UAN nitrogen benchmark prices were mixed
• Major Ammonia nitrogen benchmark prices were unchanged
• Natural gas, which drives producer costs, has decreased 5.9% during the last week and was down 9% during the last month
• The price of corn, a driver of fertilizer purchases, increased 1% during the last week and was down 3.1% during the last month

India Is Back for More Urea as Ammonia Prices Climb for 4Q

Nitrogen spreads portend higher 4Q pricing after ammonia rose to urea’s nutrient level. US inland ammonia firmed again this week following last week’s 32% increase at Tampa. India’s Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers called a urea tender earlier than expected on Sept. 4, driving New Orleans and international prices significantly higher.

Indian Urea Tender Roils Global Nitrogen Markets

The India tender call on Sept. 4 caught the global urea industry by surprise, pushing prices up rapidly in the US, Brazil and Black Sea region. New Orleans (NOLA) urea barges firmed to $390-$450 a short ton (st) vs. last week’s $335-$360, while Brazil urea jumped more than $100 a metric ton (mt) from last week, to $450-$455/mt cost-and-freight. Black Sea prilled urea firmed as well, to $357-$394/mt vs. last week’s $320. Other nitrogen markets also strengthened in the wake of the urea surge, with ammonia terminals moving up as much as $100/st in the US Corn Belt and Pacific Northwest prices jumping $140, to $600/st for new 4Q offers.

Urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) prices also strengthened in the Western US. Phosphates were quiet during the week, though phosphoric acid and ammonium polyphosphate prices were up in the Western US.

 

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