Global Ag News for Sep 20
TODAY – EXPORT INSPECTIONS, CROP PROGRESS
Wheat prices overnight are down 4 1/4 in SRW, down 5 3/4 in HRW, down 6 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 7 1/2; Soybeans down 13 1/4; Soymeal down $0.28; Soyoil down 0.68.
Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 17 1/2 in SRW, up 21 in HRW, up 18 in HRS; Corn is up 6 1/2; Soybeans down 14; Soymeal down $0.58; Soyoil down 0.41.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 17 3/4 in SRW, down 4 3/4 in HRW, down 9 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 14 1/2; Soybeans down 21 3/4; Soymeal down $6.20; Soyoil down 3.17.
China’s markets are close for holiday.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 85 ringgit (-1.99%) at 4176 as investors weighed an extended drop in soybean oil, though prospects of stronger imports by India could stem declines.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday, north Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers in Mato Grosso Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated showers south. Temperatures above to well above normal. East: Isolated showers, mostly south. Temperatures above normal. Forecast: West: Scattered showers Monday, south Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers north Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, above normal north ad near to below normal south Thursday, near normal Friday. East: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Isolated showers east Thursday. Scattered showers Friday night. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday.
The player sheet for Sept. 17 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,500 corn, sellers of 5,500 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and sellers of 1,000 soyoil.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 17 Corn; 1 Soybeans; 365 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 1,275 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 17 were: SRW Wheat down 1,830 contracts, HRW Wheat up 516, Corn up 2,931, Soybeans up 520, Soymeal down 681, Soyoil up 785.
- SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 132,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year that began Sept. 1.
- WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korean flour mills this week purchased an estimated 81,700 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from Australia
- CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased some 66,000 tonnes of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins in a private deal on Thursday without an international tender being issued
- WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer received the lowest price offer assessed at $421.19 a tonne CIF liner out in an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 tonnes of wheat, which closed on Sept. 16
- WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan issued an international tender to purchase and import 500,000 tonnes of wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: Morocco’s state grains agency ONICL issued a tender to import about 363,000 tonnes of U.S.-origin soft wheat under a preferential tariff import quota
- WHEAT FLOUR TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 47,000 tonnes of wheat flour to be sourced from optional origins
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat sourced from optional origins
- WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase 49,580 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
- SOYBEAN OIL & SUNFLOWER OIL TENDER: Egypt seeking at least 30k tons of soybean oil and 10k tons of sunflower oil in international tender on Sept. 22, the General Authority for Supply Commodities says.
China Aug. Corn Imports 3.23M Tons, +221.2% Y/y
General Administration of Customs says on website.
- Aug. corn import rose 221.2% Y/y to 3.23M tons
- YTD corn imports rose 283.7% y/y to 21.4m tons
- Aug. wheat imports 710,000 tons, +1.1% y/y
- YTD wheat imports rose 39.7% y/y to 6.96m tons
- Aug. edible palm oil imports 470,000 tons, -1.1% y/y
- YTD edible palm oil imports rose 12% y/y to 2.93m tons
- Aug. pork imports 280,000 tons, -20.6% y/y
- YTD pork imports rose 1% y/y to 2.93m tons
- Aug. beef imports 190,000 tons, +2.3% y/y
- YTD beef imports rose 9.1% y/y to 1.52m tons
China’s August soybean imports from Brazil rise 10.9% y/y
China’s August soybean imports from Brazil rose 10.9% from the same month last year, customs data showed on Monday, while shipments from the United States fell sharply.
China, the world’s top importer of soybeans, brought in 9.04 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil in August, up from 8.15 million tonnes a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.
In contrast, imports from the United States last month fell to 17,575 tonnes, down 89.4% from 166,370 tonnes in August 2020.
Overall, China imported 9.49 million tonnes of soybeans in August, slightly down from 9.6 million tonnes a earlier.
Alberta Harvest 61% Complete on Favorable Harvest Conditions
Harvest in western Canadian province is ahead of 5-year average of 28% for this point in season, Alberta government says Friday.
- Farmers harvested ~73% of spring wheat, 74% of barley and ~33% of canola, weekly crop report shows
- Oats are ~55% harvested and dry peas ~97%
- Small pockets of frost were reported in low-lying parts across most areas, but no widespread damaging frosts occurred
- Pasture and hay growth is generally slow at this point, with cooler temperatures
- Pasture conditions are rated at ~53% poor, ~25% fair, ~21% good, 0.1% excellent
- About 29% of surface soil moisture is rated poor, ~33% fair, ~36% good and 1.5% is excellent
Malaysia keeps Oct crude palm oil export tax at 8%
Malaysia maintained its October export tax for crude palm oil at 8%, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed on Monday.
The world’s second-largest palm exporter calculated a reference price of 4,472.46 ringgit ($1,068.18) per tonne for October, up from 4,255.52 ringgit in September. The export tax structure starts at 3% for crude palm oil in a 2,250 to 2,400 ringgit-per-tonne range. The maximum tax rate is set at 8% when prices exceed 3,450 ringgit a tonne.
Malaysia’s Sept. 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 1,089,071 Tons: AmSpec
Shipments rise 38.2% m/m from 788,211 tons exported during Aug 1-20, according to AmSpec Agri on Monday.
Malaysia Sept. 1-20 Palm Oil Exports +43.5% M/m: Intertek
Malaysia’s palm oil exports rose 43.5% m/m during Sept. 1-20, according to Intertek Testing Services.
IHS Markit sees U.S. 2021 corn production at 15.046 billion bushels -document – Reuters News
Private analytics firm IHS Markit Agribusiness on Friday estimated U.S. 2021 corn production at 15.046 billion bushels, above the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest figure of 14.996 billion, according to portions of an IHS client note seen by Reuters.
- IHS put 2021 corn plantings at 93.724 million acres, up 420,000 acres from the USDA’s last official estimate.
- The firm put harvested corn area at 85.335 million acres and matched USDA’s yield estimate of 176.3 bushels per acre (bpa) to reach its corn production figure.
- For soybeans, IHS estimated 2021 production at 4.381 billion bushels, slightly above USDA’s official estimate of 4.374 billion.
- IHS put 2021 soybean plantings at 87.385 million acres – up 150,000 from the USDA’s estimate – and harvested area at 86.586 million acres. The firm matched the USDA’s soybean yield estimate of 50.6 bpa.
- Looking ahead, IHS projected U.S. 2022 corn plantings at 94.3 million acres, up 0.6% from 2021, and soybean plantings at 86.6 million acres, down 0.9% from 2021.
- The firm projected that U.S. all-wheat plantings for harvest in 2022 would rise 3.3% to 48.5 million acres, including 34.755 million acres of winter wheat, 1.950 million acres of durum wheat and 11.8 million acres of spring wheat other than durum.
- All-cotton seedings for 2022 were seen at 11.753 million acres, up 5% from the 11.191 million acres planted for 2021.
India’s 2021-22 soybean output seen sharply lower on year
- Soybean harvest seen falling 17% to 10.8 million mt
- Output seen declining on erratic showers, likely poor yields
- Soybean oil imports seen rising
India’s soybean production may decline sharply in the marketing year 2021-22 (October-September) as erratic rainfall during the sowing season affected yields, according to a survey by S&P Global Platts. A poor soybean crop could increase India’s reliance on edible oil imports and endanger its exports of soybean meal in the coming months, analysts said.
- India’s soybean production in MY 2021-22 is expected to be around 10.8 million mt, nearly 16.6% lower on the year, an average estimate of 13 analysts and traders showed. India harvested 12.9 million mt of soybean in MY 2020-21, according to ministry of agriculture.
- The likely decline in the output is primarily due to an expected fall in yields due to erratic showers, analysts said.
- According to India’s ministry of agriculture, planted area under soybean was at 12.2 million hectares in 2021-22, slightly higher than 12.1 million hectares in 2020-21.
- Soybean, the largest-grown oilseed in India, is sown in June-July and harvested in September-October. India’s agriculture ministry is expected to release its production estimates later this month.
Russian Wheat Exports Fall 9% So Far This Season: Agency
Wheat shipments for the 2021-22 season totaled 10.1m tons as of Sept. 16, the Federal Center of Quality and Safety Assurance for Grain and Grain Products said on its website, citing inspections before exports.
- That means wheat exports totaled about 1.2m tons in the week to Sept. 16, compared with about 1m tons a week earlier
- Exports of all grains are at 11.7m tons so far this season
- NOTE: Data are preliminary and include exports to the Eurasian Economic Union, which is a customs union of countries that includes Russia
Argentina to Export Record $36.7b From New Crop Season: Rosario
Shipments of crops and processed products from the 2021-22 growing season will be worth 4.6% more than in the previous year, the Rosario Board of Trade estimates in its weekly newsletter. The estimate is based on current planting and weather forecasts and current crop prices
Brazil’s Amaggi Aims for Zero Deforestation by 2025: Group
One of the nation’s largest soybean producers and trading firms will eliminate deforestation and conversion of native vegetation to crops across its supply chain by 2025, Andre Maggi Participacoes SA says in emailed statement.
- Last year was set as a reference date for the company to report a deforestation index from soybean acquired from third parties
- Since 2017, 99% of soybean acquired from direct and indirect suppliers is deforestation and conversion free
- Amaggi hasn’t converted native vegetation into crops at its own farms since 2008
- Company joined United Nations’ Race to Zero program to cut emissions to zero by 2050
- It’s Brazil’s first grains-and-oilseed farming group to make this commitment
- Co. will invest in technology to monitor deforestation and also in regenerative agriculture
Australian Grain Exports Could Hit Record 35 Million Tons: IKON
Australia’s bulk grain exports could hit a record 35 million tons in the coming months as continued excellent growing conditions boost output prospects in key producing regions, IKON Commodities said in a statement.
- Mobile loaders operating in Victoria and South Australia will boost port-loading capacity, while additional rail capacity from extra rolling stock for New South Wales and Western Australia will support increased throughput at Port Kembla and Kwinana
- Strong global demand for Australian grain likely after Canadian, U.S. and French harvests slashed amid poor weather
- IKON forecasts wheat output for 2021-22 at 35.2m tons, equal to last season’s record crop
- Other 2021-22 production forecasts:
- Barley 12.3m tons, down 7.9% y/y
- Canola 5.3m tons, up 17.4% y/y
- Chickpeas 1.3m tons, up 32.9% y/y
Indonesia’s Halt to Palm Oil Expansion Is Set to Expire Soon
- Decree for three-year permit moratorium was signed Sept. 19
- RHB sees moratorium extension adding to palm’s stellar gains
Indonesia’s moratorium on new oil palm plantation permits is set to expire this week as the industry awaits clarity on whether the government will extend the policy.
President Joko Widodo ordered a stop to permit issuance for new plantations and expansion of existing ones for three years in a decree signed Sept. 19, 2018. That order expanded on an earlier ban on permits for plantations on primary forest and peat land.
As palm prices surge almost 50% in the past year due to tight supply, the government has given few signs on whether the moratorium would remain. The breakneck expansion of plantations through Southeast Asia has come at the expense of vast swathes of tropical rainforest.
An extension could lead prices to climb higher as there’s been slow replanting of old oil palm trees, said Christopher Andre Benas, an analyst at RHB Sekuritas.
Surging Fertilizer Costs Risk Making Food Even Pricier Next Year
- Extreme storms, plant shutdowns, government rules hit at once
- Corn could be one of the most impacted commodities in the U.S.
Most people don’t give fertilizer a second thought — except maybe when driving through a particularly fragrant agricultural area. But with prices for some synthetic nutrients at their highest levels since the financial crisis, it could mean weaker harvests and bigger grocery bills next year, just as the world’s supply chains start to recover from the pandemic.
A perfect storm of events — from extreme weather and plant shutdowns to new government sanctions — have hit the chemical fertilizer market this year, slamming farmers already buckling under the strain of rising costs to produce food. Prices for urea, a popular nitrogen-based fertilizer, skyrocketed earlier this month to the highest since 2012 in New Orleans, the U.S.’s major fertilizer trading hub. A common phosphate fertilizer known as DAP is the most expensive in that market since 2008, Bloomberg data show.
U.S. Beef Production Up 15% This Week, Pork Rises: USDA
U.S. federally inspected beef production rises to 542m pounds for the week ending Sept. 18 from 473m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.
- Cattle slaughter up 14.4% from a week ago to 660m head
- Pork production up 13.1% from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 13.2%
- For the year, beef production is 3.4% above last year’s level at this time, while pork is 1.8% below
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