Global Ag News for Sep 15
TODAY – EIA WEEKLY ENERGY REPORT
Wheat prices overnight are up 2 3/4 in SRW, up 3 in HRW, up 2 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 5 1/4; Soybeans up 8 3/4; Soymeal up $0.15; Soyoil up 0.71.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 15 in SRW, up 22 1/4 in HRW, up 11 in HRS; Corn is up 8; Soybeans up 4 3/4; Soymeal up $0.08; Soyoil up 1.59.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 18 3/4 in SRW, down 7 1/4 in HRW, down 13 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 8 3/4; Soybeans down 1 1/4; Soymeal down $2.30; Soyoil down 1.17.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans down 18 yuan ; Soymeal up 5; Soyoil up 4; Palm oil up 98; Corn up 6 — Malasyian Palm is up 78. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 78 ringgit (+1.80%) at 4418 climbing for a third straight day, aided by expectations of a sustained increase in Malaysian exports that signals improving demand.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday, above normal Saturday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Isolated showers west through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday. East: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.
The player sheet for Sept. 14 had funds: net buyers of 6,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,500 corn, buyers of 2,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and buyers of 3,500 soyoil.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 14 were: SRW Wheat down 1,733 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,187, Corn up 3,203, Soybeans up 598, Soymeal up 3,612, Soyoil down 1,379.
There were changes in registrations (17 Corn, 1 Soybeans, 66 Soyoil). Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 17 Corn; 1 Soybeans; 365 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 1,275 HRW Wheat.
- SOYMEAL TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 30,000 tonnes of soymeal, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Wednesday, Sept. 15. Shipment is sought from optional origins in two periods, between Nov. 10-30 and Dec. 1-15.
- WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture sought 118,771 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender.
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued a tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat sourced from optional origins
- FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Dec. 31 and arrive in Japan by Feb. 24, 2022, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Sept. 15.
- MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan issued an international tender to purchase and import 500,000 tonnes of wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: Morocco’s state grains agency ONICL issued a tender to import about 363,000 tonnes of U.S.-origin soft wheat under a preferential tariff import quota
- WHEAT FLOUR TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 47,000 tonnes of wheat flour to be sourced from optional origins
- CORN TENDER: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) is seeking to purchase up to 69,000 tonnes of corn to be sourced from optional origins in private negotiations on Wednesday without issuing an international tender
ETHANOL: U.S. Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report
Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Sept. 10 are based on nine analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
- Production seen slightly higher than last week at 926k b/d
- Stockpile avg est. 20.164m bbl vs 20.39m a week ago
- Would be the seventh straight weekly decline in stocks
Cargill restarts Westwego, Louisiana, grain export terminal after Ida
Global grain trader Cargill Inc CARG.UL restarted its Westwego, Louisiana, grain export terminal and on Monday unloaded its first grain barge since Hurricane Ida shuttered the facility two weeks ago, the company said on Tuesday.
Drought Conditions in Western Canada Lowers Production Estimates
Canadian farm operators are projected to produce more corn for grain, less wheat, canola, barley, soybeans, oats in 2021 than in 2020, according to Statistics Canada production crop summary report released Tuesday.
- Lower production is driven by drought conditions in Western Canada
- Harvest progress is well ahead of average due to advanced crop development
- Over one quarter of major crops had been harvested at end of August, over double last year’s estimate of 10%, five year average 11%
- Wheat production is projected to decrease 38.3% y/y
- Canola production is expected to fall 34.4% in 2021, which would be the lowest since 2010
Canada 2021 Crop Production After Statcan Model-Based Report
The following table compares current Canadian crop production estimates from Statistics Canada to the ones the agency published on Aug. 30.
- Total wheat crop 1.2m tons lower at 21.7m tons
- Canola down 2m tons to 12.8m tons
Argentina 2021-22 Soy Est. Climbs 2.1% Y/y to 44m Tons: Bourse
Farmers will produce more soybeans than last season because of better weather conditions, but the planted area will fall for the 6th consecutive season as they rotate to corn, Esteban Copati, chief estimates analyst at the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, says at a webinar.
- NOTE: A La Nina weather pattern that limits rainfall is forecast for the season ahead, but it’s expected to be weak
- Soy planting seen falling 2.4% y/y to 16.5m hectares (40.8m acres), the lowest in 15 years
- NOTE: Argentine soy is planted from late October and starts being harvested in March
- Farmers are switching to late-planted corn as a hedge against dry conditions: Copati
- Corn area estimate expands 7.6% to a record 7.1m ha, the 8th consecutive increase; 52% of plantings will be the late crop
- Corn production seen climbing 8.9% to a record 55m metric tons
- It’s the first time in the bourse’s two decades of providing estimates that in the pre-season it has forecast a bigger harvest of corn than soy
- New production estimate is a record 19.2m tons, up 13% y/y
Argentina’s 2020/21 soybean sales hit 29.4 mln tonnes -ministry
Argentine farmers have sold a total 29.4 million tonnes of soybeans from the 2020/21 crop, after registering sales over a seven-day period of 475,600 tonnes, the Ministry of Agriculture said on Tuesday.
The sales volume of one of Argentina’s main crops lagged that of the previous season, when by the equivalent point some 31.3 million tonnes of the oilseed had been traded, the ministry said in report with data through Sept. 8.
The 2020/21 soy harvest in Argentina ended in June at 43.1 million tonnes, according to the Buenos Aires grains exchange, compared with 49 million tonnes in the 2019/20 season.
The Buenos Aires exchange on Tuesday estimated the coming 2021/22 soy crop, which will start to be sown in October, at 44 million tonnes. (Full Story)
The ministry also said sales of 2020/21 corn had reached 39.7 million tonnes, 3.2 million tonnes more than sales registered at the same time last year.
The exchange estimates 50.5 million tonnes of corn were harvested in the 2020/21 season and on Tuesday announced it expects a record 55 million tonne crop for the 2021/22 season. Corn planting will begin in the coming days. (Full Story)
Argentine farmers have sold a total of 6.4 million tonnes of wheat for 2021/22, with the harvest starting in November, the government said. The Buenos Aires exchange raised on Tuesday its estimate for the new wheat crop to 19.2 million tonnes.
Brazil imports 15,000 mt of soybean oil from Argentina
- Brazilian soybean oil domestic prices said above export parity
- Brazil’s soybean oil imports surge so far in 2021
- Higher soybean oil demand seen in September-October
A Brazilian biodiesel producer has firmed an import of 15,000 mt of soybean oil from Argentina for loading still in September as domestic prices for the vegetable oil have been above export parity, sources told S&P Global Platts.
Details such as the price of the purchase were not disclosed.
Soybean oil imports by Brazil have surged this year after the country’s oil and biofuels regulator, or ANP, authorized late 2020 the use of imported feedstock for biodiesel production. The vegoil is the main raw material for the biofuel’s production in the country.
Brazil officially imported 86,129 mt of soybean oil in 2021 through Aug. 31, far above the 22,118 mt in the same eight months in 2020, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture.
India’s Palm Oil Imports Rise to 3-Month High in August: SEA
Purchases by the world’s biggest palm oil importer climbed about 61% from a month earlier to 750,134 tons in August, the highest level since May, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India on Wednesday.
- NOTE: Palm oil imports in July were 465,606 tons, the lowest in five months
- Soybean oil imports fell to 182,459 tons from 379,892 tons in July
- Purchases of sunflower oil at 71,340 tons compared with 71,838 tons m/m
- Total vegetable oil imports, including non-edible oil, increased to 1.05m tons from 980,624 tons in July
- Edible oil stockpiles on Sept. 1 totaled 1.75m tons, compared with about 1.7m tons at the start of August
EU Soft-Wheat Exports Rose 45% in Season Through Sept. 12
Soft-wheat shipments during the season that began July 1 reached 5.79m tons as of Sept. 12, versus about 4m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said Tuesday on its website.
- NOTE: Data for the prior season include trade for the U.K. until Dec. 31, 2020, when the country departed the EU customs union
- Top soft-wheat destinations were Algeria (805k tons), South Korea (702k tons) and South Africa (394k tons)
- EU barley exports totaled 2.27m tons, compared with 1.89m tons a year earlier
- China is the top market at 601k tons
- EU corn imports reached 3.03m tons, against 3.61m tons a year earlier
AgriMer Cuts French Wheat-Export Outlook After Rains Hurt Crop
French soft-wheat exports outside the EU in the 2021-22 season are now seen at 9.6m tons, down from a July estimate for 10.5m tons, crops office FranceAgriMer said in a report on Wednesday.
- That will be partially offset by greater sales within the bloc
- Total soft-wheat exports estimated at 17.8m tons, against 17.9m tons seen in July
- NOTE: France’s agriculture ministry lowered its soft-wheat crop estimate this week after heavy summer rains delayed harvests and curbed yields
- Estimate for end-of-season stockpiles cut to 2.86m tons, down 22% from July’s outlook: AgriMer
- That remains above 2.34m tons at the close of the prior season
- Stockpiles at the close of the 2020-21 season are seen at 1.8m tons, down from 1.86m tons previously forecast
- No estimates yet given for the 2021-22 year
Russia Sees Winter Crop, Oilseeds Sowing Totaling 19.5m Hectares
Russia expects winter grains and oilseed plantings to total about 19.5 million hectares, Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said in a statement.
- NOTE: No breakdown or comparative figure for last year was given
- READ: Russia Aims to Expand Winter Crop Area by 2% for 2021-22 Season
- This year, Russia has harvested 98.3m tons of grains so far, Patrushev said
Kazakhstan Grain Harvest at 12m Tons So Far, Behind Last Year
About 83% of the planted area, or 13.2m hectares, has been harvested so far, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website.
- Average grain yield is 9.1 centners/ha
- NOTE: By Sept. 8, 2020, 12.2m tons the grains crop had been harvested, with an average yield of 11.7 centners/ha
- NOTE: Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said on Sept. 7 that the government is weighing whether to introduce an export duty for grains in the future, but that it would be premature to do so at the moment given the current situation
Malaysia’s Sept 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 832,355 Tons: AmSpec
Shipments rise 53.9% m/m from 540,853 tons exported during Aug 1-15, according to AmSpec Agri on Wednesday.
Record-High Exports Give Indonesia Much-Needed Boost for Growth
The global commodity boom sent Indonesia’s exports and trade surplus to all-time highs in August, giving its economy a necessary boost as consumption took a hit from prolonged pandemic lockdowns.
Outbound shipments climbed to $21.4 billion last month, driven by higher trade volumes and commodity prices led by crude palm oil and coal, head of statistics office Margo Yuwono said in a briefing Wednesday. This made for a 64% annual jump, beating all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Trade surplus widened to its highest ever level of $4.7 billion for the month, also surpassing all economist estimates which ranged from $1.1 billion to $3.1 billion.
It was the 16th consecutive month that Southeast Asia’s biggest economy posted a trade surplus, “a very good trend for the economic recovery and we expect it to continue,” Yuwono said. “Imports of raw materials and capital goods also showed an increase, indicating that production activity and demand from industrial sector improving,” he added.
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