Global Ag News for Oct 7th

TODAY – EXPORT SALES

Wheat prices overnight are up 5 in SRW, up 4 1/4 in HRW, up 7 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans up 3; Soymeal up $0.17; Soyoil up 0.11.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 10 1/4 in SRW, down 14 1/2 in HRW, up 15 in HRS; Corn is down 10; Soybeans down 4 1/2; Soymeal down $0.28; Soyoil up 1.15.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 25 1/2 in SRW, up 17 1/2 in HRW, up 34 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans down 11; Soymeal down $4.30; Soyoil up 1.76.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 23 ringgit (-0.47%) at 4849 after rallying to a record high as exports tumbled from second-largest grower Malaysia and weaker crude oil prices damped its appeal for biodiesel use.

China’s markets are closed for holiday and will open tomorrow.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Sunday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated showers south Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday, north Friday-Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday. East: Scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday-Friday.

The player sheet for Oct. 6 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 5,000 corn, buyers of 4,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 4,500 soyoil.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 17 Corn; 1 Soybeans; 365 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 1,273 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 6 were: SRW Wheat up 4,236 contracts, HRW Wheat up 221, Corn up 1,033, Soybeans up 3,662, Soymeal up 1,180, Soyoil up 50.

TENDERS

• WHEAT SALE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), on Wednesday said that it bought 240,000 tonnes of wheat in an international tender. The purchase comprised 180,000 tonnes of Russian wheat and 60,000 tonnes of Ukrainian wheat, GASC said.
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan has issued an international tender to purchase and import 90,000 tonnes of wheat, keeping up a trend of strong import demand after more than 1.1 million tonnes bought in past weeks
• WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase 100,000 tonnes of durum wheat
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said on Wednesday that it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Jan. 31, 2022 and arrive in Japan by Feb. 24.
• FAILED WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer the trade ministry is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which closed on Wednesday
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 48,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender which closed on Thursday

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture sought 130,963 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: A United Nations agency has issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 tonnes of milling wheat on behalf of the Ethiopian government
• CORN TENDER: TMO has issued an international tender to purchase a total of 325,000 tonnes of animal feed corn
• WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government has issued a new international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat

 GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of six analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Sept. 30.

• Corn est. range 350k – 800k tons, with avg of 535k
• Soybean est. range 600k – 1,200k tons, with avg of 993k

CROP SURVEY: Brazil 2021-22 Soybean Output Seen at 144.1M Tons

Brazil’s new crop seen 8.2m tons bigger than the 2020-21 crop, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of seven analysts.

• The range of estimates varied from 142.2m tons to 145.3m tons
• Planted area seen 1.8m hectars higher at 40.3m
• Conab, the Brazilian national supply company, is scheduled to release its first estimates for the 2021-22 crop on Oct. 7 at 9am local time.

DOE: U.S. Ethanol Stocks Fall 1.4% to 19.931M Bbl

According to the U.S. Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 20.246 mln bbl
• Plant production at 0.978m b/d, compared to survey avg of 0.924m

China Expected to Import 20M Tons of Corn for 2021-22: USDA FAS

U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service’s forecast for China corn imports in 2021-22 marketing year is 6 million metric tons below WASDE forecast in September. Estimate for corn imports in 2020-21 is raised to 30 million tons

Bangladesh to Import Wheat From Russia at $419/Ton

Bangladesh will import 100,000 tons of wheat from Russia under a government-to-government contract, Shamsul Arefin, additional secretary of Cabinet Division, says at a media briefing in Dhaka.

A cabinet committee on government purchase approved the import proposal from the Directorate of Food at a meeting

Ukraine’s Shippers Urge Govt to Allow Sales of Wheat ‘Surplus’

Ukraine’s wheat exports may reach 26m tons this marketing year, up 27% from previous season, local Grain Association says in an emailed statement.

• That’s possible due to a record harvest; grain group sees wheat output rising 31% y/y to 33.1m tons in 2021
• Grain association sees no threat to domestic food safety; urges government to allow sales of wheat “surplus”
• Ukraine’s government expects wheat exports not to exceed 24.5m tons in 2021-22 marketing year that started in July
• NOTE: Ukraine’s government, largest grain traders are in talks to agree on maximum volume of wheat exports this season; will continue discussion on Oct. 11.

Egypt’s Wheat Purchases Are Running 27% Behind Last Year

Egypt’s state buyer bought 240,000 tons of wheat in a tender on Wednesday, putting its total purchases for the 2021-22 season about 27% below a similar time last year.

Key highlights of the tender:

• Russian wheat has become more competitive and Egypt booked the most from the country since an April tender.
• Prices continue to climb higher, and the average is up by almost $100 a ton since purchases for the current season began.
• Egypt sought wheat for two delivery periods, but ended up buying for only one.

FAO Raises World Wheat Crop Outlook, Keeps Stockpiles Steady

World wheat production is now seen at 776.7m tons, up 7.2m tons from a September forecast, the United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization said Thursday in a report.

• Higher yields are expected in eastern Europe and Ukraine plantings proved larger than expected
  • Australia’s crop is also benefiting from good conditions
  • Russian crop outlook cut on dry weather
• Wheat stockpiles outlook left little changed amid higher use in animal feed, especially in China, U.S., EU and U.K.
• Coarse-grain production outlook raised to 1.504b tons, up 4.3m tons from September
  • That’s based on better barley and sorghum crops, while corn is little changed
  • Stockpiles estimate increased on bigger corn reserves in China and U.S.
• World grain stockpiles at the close of the 2021-22 season are now seen at 817m tons, up 8.9m tons from September
  • However, inventory would still remain below the prior season

Food Inflation Heats Up With Global Prices at Decade High

• UN gauge of global food costs climbed 1.2% last month
• Sector hit by tight supply, freight costs, worker shortages

A United Nations index of food costs rose 1.2% in September, and are up by a third over the past year, data showed Thursday. Prices for almost all types of foodstuffs gained, with key staples like vegetable oils in short supply, while wheat harvests have been hit by bad weather as demand remains strong.

Rising freight costs and worker shortages along the supply chain are compounding the problem, leaving some supermarket shelves short of items. While it’ll take time for the latest leg up to filter through to grocery stores, consumers around the world have already been hit by higher prices, adding to inflationary pressures and prompting governments to look for solutions to keep costs in check.

There’s a risk things could get worse for the food sector. The recent surge in energy costs is sending prices for agricultural inputs like fertilizer soaring — threatening higher crop prices or possibly smaller supplies down the line — and spurring greenhouses growing vegetables to go dark.

That’s boosted bills across major buyers. In top wheat importer Egypt, the average cost in tenders has surged by almost $100 a ton since purchases for the current season began, and the president has called for an increase in subsidized bread prices. Other nations have issued a raft of wheat import tenders lately, too.

Breakdown of food price changes in September:

• Grains rose 2%, driven by wheat, with rice also gaining.
• Vegetable oils climbed 1.7% on strong demand for palm oil and concerns about worker shortages in Malaysia.
• Dairy and sugar increased, while meat was steady.

France raises 2021 wine output forecast, now seen 27% down on year

France’s farm ministry on Thursday raised its estimate of the country’s wine output this year to 34.4 million hectolitres, from 33.3 million forecast last month, citing increased estimates for the Champagne, Bordeaux and Charentes regions.

Output would now be down 27% on last year after vineyards were hit by spring frost, disease and dry weather, it said.