Global Ag News for Oct 6th

 TODAY – EIA ENERGY STOCKS REPORT

Wheat prices overnight are up 1/4 in SRW, down 1/2 in HRW, up 2 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/2; Soybeans down 1 1/2; Soymeal down $0.03; Soyoil up 0.26.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 10 1/4 in SRW, down 19 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/2; Soybeans up 2 1/2; Soymeal down $0.60; Soyoil up 2.58. For the month to date wheat prices are up 19 1/2 in SRW, up 8 3/4 in HRW, up 15 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans down 7; Soymeal down $7.80; Soyoil up 2.71.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 132 ringgit (+2.79%) at 4870 buoyed by tight global vegetable oil supplies and strong demand, but there are warnings that the rally may soon run out of steam. China’s markets are closed for holiday.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday, mostly north. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers east Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers east Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated showers south Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday, north Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday. East: Isolated showers Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures above to well above normal Sunday-Thursday.

The player sheet for Oct. 5 had funds: net sellers of 8,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 2,000 corn, sellers of 8,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 6,000 soyoil.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 5 were: SRW Wheat up 2,615 contracts, HRW Wheat down 336, Corn down 6,767, Soybeans up 5,034, Soymeal up 10,708, Soyoil up 801.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 17 Corn; 1 Soybeans; 365 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 1,273 HRW Wheat.

TENDERS

• SOYOIL SALE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said on Tuesday it had bought 36,000 tonnes of soyoil in an international tender for arrival between Nov. 25 and Dec. 20.
• WHEAT TENDER: Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) said on Tuesday it was seeking an unspecified amount of wheat from global suppliers for shipment from Nov. 11-20 and/or Nov. 21-30 using 180-day letters of credit. GASC also said the deadline for offers is Oct. 6.
• CORN TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase a total of 325,000 tonnes of animal feed corn
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture sought 130,963 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender.
• WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government has issued a new international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Nov. 9.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase 48,000 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
• WHEAT TENDER: A United Nations agency has issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 tonnes of milling wheat on behalf of the Ethiopian government
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan has issued an international tender to purchase and import 90,000 tonnes of wheat, keeping up a trend of strong import demand after more than 1.1 million tonnes bought in past weeks.

ETHANOL: U.S. Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Oct. 1 are based on eight analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 924k b/d
• Would be the first increase in production after declining the past two weeks
• Stockpile avg est. 20.246m bbl vs 20.22m a week ago

Brazil Soybean Exports to China Rose 3% Y/y in September

According to data on the Brazilian Trade Ministry’s website.

• Sept. exports to China rose to 3.5m tons from 3.3m tons a year ago
• Exports to non-China countries rose 49% y/y to 1.4m tons
• Overall, soybean exports of 4.8m tons reached a record high for the month of Sept.

Russia Confirms It Plans Grain-Export Quota From Mid-February

Russia doesn’t plan any changes to its grains-export regime by year-end, but is looking to impose an export quota in the second part of the season, Maxim Titov, head of a department for regulation in Agricultural Ministry, said during an agriculture conference in the Moscow Region on Tuesday.

• NOTE: Russia also introduced quotas last season
• The quota has traditionally been split between exporters, based on shipments in the previous season

Russia Wheat Output Seen at 75M-77M Tons in 2021: RusAgroTrans

Russia’s wheat output is expected to be between 75m-77m tons this year, Igor Pavensky, the head of analytical center RusAgroTrans, told the Moscow Golden Autumn Agriculture conference Tuesday.

• Dry weather in the Volga region and in the Urals affecting production
• Weather conditions this season have been especially difficult
• Sees 2021 grain output at 119m-121m tons

Russia Cuts Grains Export Forecast to 45M-48M Tons for Season

Russia may export 45m-48m tons of grains in the 2021-22 agricultural season, Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said in interview to state-owned Rossiyskaya Gazeta.

• NOTE: The ministry previously forecast 51m tons of exports in the season
• Patrushev also said that Russia will have an export quota for grains in the second part of the season
  • He confirmed that there will be limits on wheat shipments as part of the quota for grains
• Total agro-product exports should reach as much as $35b this year

Russia’s 2021 grain harvest progress as of Oct 5

Russia, one of the world’s largest grain exporters, has harvested 108.4 million tonnes of grain before drying and cleaning, data from the agriculture ministry showed on Wednesday.

Ukraine 2022 winter wheat sowing 46% complete -ministry

Ukrainian farms had sown 3.1 million hectares of winter wheat for the 2022 harvest as of Oct 4 or 46% of the expected area, the agriculture ministry said on Tuesday.

Winter wheat accounts for 95% of Ukraine’s total wheat sowing area.

The ministry also said that winter barley had been sown on 252,000 hectares or 12% of the planned area and rye sowing had been 66% completed with 106,000 hektares covered.

Last year, the autumn drought reduced the area planted with winter grains, and farmers sowed 6.1 million hectares of winter wheat, 954,700 hectares of winter barley and 125,200 hectares of rye for the 2021 harvest.

Ukraine cuts 2021 grain crop forecast but raises export outlook

Ukraine’s agriculture ministry has decreased its forecast for the 2021 grain harvest to 80.25 million tonnes from the previous estimate of 80.63 million tonnes, the ministry’s data showed on Wednesday.

The data showed that the ministry had decreased 2021 wheat crop outlook to 31.55 million tonnes from 32 million, while kept unchanged the forecast for corn and barley output at 37.1 million tonnes and 9.4 million tonnes respectively.

Ukraine has harvested almost 47 million tonnes of grain bunker weight from 67.3% of the sowing area. Farms completed the 2021 wheat harvest, threshing 32.2 million tonnes of the commodity in bunker weight.

The ministry said that despite a drop in the 2021 harvest forecast it had raised the 2021/22 grain export outlook to 61.45 million tonnes from 60.68 million due to higher shipments of wheat, which could reach 24.51 million tonnes.

A month earlier the ministry said it saw wheat exports at 23.8 million tonnes.

Ukraine’s Wheat Exports Up 5% Y/y Between July-Oct. 6: Ministry

Ukraine’s wheat exports for the current marketing year reached 9.4 million tons for the period between July and Oct. 6, according to data published on the Agriculture Ministry’s website.

• • NOTE: Marketing year starts July 1
  • Total grain exports rose 18% y/y to almost 15m tons

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Rose 45% in Season Through Oct. 3

Soft-wheat shipments during the season that began July 1 reached 8.07m tons as of Oct. 3, versus about 5.56m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said Tuesday on its website.

• NOTE: The figures are incomplete, as French data is through Sept. 27 and Italy through Sept. 29, the commission said
• NOTE: Data for the prior season include trade for the U.K. until Dec. 31, 2020, when the country departed the EU customs union
• Top soft-wheat destinations were Algeria (1.17m tons) South Korea (823k tons) and Egypt (757k tons)
• EU barley exports totaled 2.46m tons, compared with 2.25m tons a year earlier
  • China is the top market at 628k tons
• EU corn imports reached 3.64m tons, against 4.4m tons a year earlier

USDA attache report puts China 2020/21 corn imports at 30 million T

Following are selected highlights from a report dated Sept. 30 and released on Tuesday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in Beijing:

“FAS China’s marketing year (MY) 2021/22 corn import forecast is 20 million metric tons (MMT) while its estimate for corn imports in MY 2020/21 is raised to 30 MMT. Corn imported during the current marketing year is expected to enter commercial channels throughout the next year. As the feed sector sources cheaper feed grain alternatives and growth in feed demand increases at a slower rate, demand for imported corn is expected to moderate. Production revisions are based on analysis of harvested area and estimated yield trends as there have been few reported large-scale weather or pest-related production disruptions to cereal and coarse grains.”

Shanghai sees rise in soybean imports from U.S.

Shanghai saw its soybean imports from the United States soar to 2.53 million tonnes in the first eight months of the year, up 91 percent year on year, accounting for 31.1 percent of its total imported soybeans from January to August, customs authorities said Wednesday.

• The city imported a total of about 8.15 million tonnes of soybeans in the first eight months, an increase of 7.4 percent from the same period last year.
• The megacity imported about 5.62 million tonnes of soybeans from Brazil, down 7.8 percent year on year, accounting for 68.9 percent of its total imported soybeans during the same period.
• The total value of soybean imports in Shanghai from January to August reached 26.46 billion yuan (about 4.1 billion U.S. dollars), up 27.9 percent year on year, showed data from Shanghai Customs.

U.S. Agriculture Sentiment Fell in September: Purdue Univ.

The Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index fell to 124 points in Sept. from 138 in Aug., according to a survey of 400 agricultural producers.

• That’s the lowest mark for the index since July 2020
• Current conditions component declined by 12 points from Aug.
• Future expectations down by 16 points