Global Ag News for Oct 28.22

TOP HEADLINES

Ukraine Grain Export Seen at 50m Tons If Grain Deal Extended

Ukraine’s Grain Association urges United Nations to secure extension of grain deal with Russia to allow Kyiv to continue overseas shipments of grain, it says in a statement.

• If prolonged, deal will help Ukraine reach 50m tons in 2022-23 grain exports
• Otherwise nation’s grain exports won’t exceed 35m tons
• NOTE: Marketing year for Ukraine’s grain exports begins in July, ends in June

FUTURES PRICES

Wheat prices overnight are down 8 1/2 in SRW, down 12 in HRW, down 5 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 4; Soybeans down 7; Soymeal down $0.05; Soyoil down 0.64.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 20 3/4 in SRW, down 28 in HRW, down 16 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6; Soybeans down 17 1/2; Soymeal down $0.30; Soyoil up 0.16.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 91 1/2 in SRW, down 71 1/4 in HRW, down 36 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans up 11; Soymeal up $11.90; Soyoil up 10.10.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 8% in SRW, up 15% in HRW, down -4% in HRS; Corn is up 14%; Soybeans up 4%; Soymeal up 1%; Soyoil up 27%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 23) Soybeans up 19 yuan; Soymeal down 16; Soyoil down 252; Palm oil down 182; Corn down 6 –Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 155 ringgit (-3.74%) at 3992.

There were changes in registrations (-3 SRW Wheat). Registration total: 3,077 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 5 Soybeans; 39 Soyoil; 288 Soymeal; 40 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 27 were: SRW Wheat up 4,625 contracts, HRW Wheat down 629, Corn up 8,254, Soybeans down 22,817, Soymeal up 2,184, Soyoil down 479.

WEATHER

Northern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry Friday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday. Outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal west and above normal east Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday, mostly south. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday. Outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Thursday, below normal west and above normal east Friday-Saturday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers south Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday. Outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

The player sheet for Oct. 27 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,500 corn, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 3,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 128,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States, Australia and Canada in an international tender on Thursday
• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 38,515 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender which closed on Thursday
• WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: A second trading house is believed to have matched the lowest price of $373 a tonne c&f offered during negotiations on a tender from Pakistan to purchase 500,000 tonnes of wheat that closed on Wednesday
• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 tonnes of animal feed corn

PENDING TENDERS

• SUGAR TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, is seeking 50,000 tonnes of raw sugar of any origin on behalf of the Egyptian Sugar & Integrated Industries Company.
• WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: Iraq changed the closing date of its international tender for 50,000 tonnes of wheat to Oct. 30 from Oct. 24
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat, an official source said.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley, an official source said. 

TODAY

US Sold 1.03M Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 264K of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Oct. 20.

• Soybean sales fell to 1,026k tons vs 2,336k in previous week
• All wheat sales rose to 533k tons vs 185k in previous week
• Corn sales fell to 264k tons vs 408k in previous week

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following table shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Oct. 20, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• China bought 1.12m tons of the 1.03m tons of soybeans sold in the week
• China was the top buyer of corn and South Korea led in wheat

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Oct. 20, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 16.9k tons of the 20.4k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

Rains bring relief to Argentine wheat and corn -Buenos Aires gains exchange

Much-needed rain improved conditions for 2022/23 wheat and corn in Argentina, where a prolonged drought has generated losses and area cuts for both crops, the Buenos Aires grains exchange (BdeC) said on Thursday.

The country’s main agricultural regions received between 20 and 100 millimeters of water from Tuesday to Wednesday, which brought relief for crops after significant rainfalls had not been recorded in the region since May this year.

“Important rains on sectors of the province of Buenos Aires improved the scenario for the sown wheat,” it said, adding that the wheat area with fair to dry humidity conditions fell 9 percentage points in one week, to 47% of the total sown.

Last week, the grains exchange lowered once more its estimate of the wheat harvest to 15.2 million tonnes due to the drought, below the 22.4 million harvested in the previous season.

There are still batches of wheat that have to define their yields. The cereal harvest begins in November and intensifies in December.

For the 2022/23 corn, the rainfall improved the conditions for the cereal and the exchange said that “58% of the lots have a water condition between optimal and adequate.”

The sowing of the cereal is having important delays due to the drought and, until Wednesday, Argentine farmers had planted 21.8% of the 7.3 million hectares that the exchange foresees for cultivation.

In its climate outlook report on Thursday, the BdeC said that most of the Pampean Region (Argentina’s agricultural core) will see “little rainfall” in the next week, likely to be less than 10 millimeters.

Argentina is a major international supplier of wheat and the world’s third largest exporter of corn.

Paraguay Farmers Finish Soy Planting After Rains: Trade Group

Paraguayan soy farmers have largely finished planting their first soy crop following plentiful rainfall this month, said Hugo Pastore, executive director of grain and oilseed export chamber Capeco.

• “We had lots of rain and temperatures that were atypically low — very cool mornings. That means the crop is developing more slowly,” Pastore said in a telephone interview.
  • Pastore expects farmers planted an area similar to last year’s 3.3 million hectares (8.2 million acres)
• Farmers are cautiously optimistic with a good harvest hinging on adequate rainfall in December
  • “If everything goes reasonably well, we should have a first harvest that exceeds 9 million tons,” he said.
• NOTE: Paraguay’s two harvests of about 4 million metric tons this year were the smallest amount of soy in more than a decade, due to drought, according to data compiled by Capeco

EU Cuts Outlook for Drought-Hit Corn Crop Further to 54.9M Tons

The EU’s 2022 corn harvest is now seen at 54.9m tons, below a September outlook for 55.5m tons, according to a European Commission report.

• That’s down 25% from last year, after drought gripped the region this summer
• Imports are seen at 22m tons, up from 21m tons
• Soft-wheat crop estimate raised slightly to 127.2m tons, from 127m tons
  • Exports seen steady at 36m tons
• Barley crop estimate raised to 51.6m tons, from 51.5m tons

Ukraine Grain Harvest Halved Amid War, Rainy Weather: Ministry

Ukraine’s farmers have reaped almost 31m tons of grain from 7.7m ha or 70% of projected areas, about a half of last-year volumes for the same period, according to Agriculture Ministry’s data on its website.

• Total includes:
  • 19.4m tons of winter wheat from 4.7m ha;
  • 5.6m tons of winter barley from 1.6m ha;
  • 4.5m tons of corn from 832,000 ha
• NOTE: Harvesting of winter wheat, barley is finished; 20% of projected volumes of corn have been harvested
• NOTE: This year harvesting campaign is significantly hindered by war, rainy weather

Ukraine Grain Exports Fall 33% Y/y So Far in 2022-23 Season

Ukraine’s grain exports fell by 33% to 12.2m tons in the marketing year that started July 1, according to data on the Agriculture Ministry’s website.

• Includes:
  • 4.6m tons of wheat, down 61% y/y
  • 1m tons of barley, 75% lower
  • Almost 6.5m tons of corn, up more than three times compared with last season
• NOTE: Data may include grain that is aimed for exports, but hasn’t left the country yet

Ukraine Grain Export Seen at 50m Tons If Grain Deal Extended

Ukraine’s Grain Association urges United Nations to secure extension of grain deal with Russia to allow Kyiv to continue overseas shipments of grain, it says in a statement.

• If prolonged, deal will help Ukraine reach 50m tons in 2022-23 grain exports
• Otherwise nation’s grain exports won’t exceed 35m tons
• NOTE: Marketing year for Ukraine’s grain exports begins in July, ends in June

Russia Says Ukraine Grain Ship Backlog ‘Artificially Created’

“A large build-up of ships is being artificially created in the port of Istanbul in order to put pressure on our experts, weaken controls and speed up the cargo inspection procedure,” Russia’s foreign ministry says in a statement.

• Foreign ministry says 70 vessels were detained during the initiative, some of those due to non-compliance with navigation rules and attempts to smuggle
• NOTE: Backlog of ships grew to more than 165 earlier this week; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has accused Russia of deliberately slowing the grain-export pace
• NOTE: Joint Coordination Centre, which facilitates the Black Sea grain deal, did not immediately confirm number of detained vessels or reason

Russia Wheat-Export Tax to Fall to 2,923 Rubles/Ton: Interfax

Russia’s wheat-export duty will fall to 2,923 rubles ($47.41) a ton next week from 3,028 rubles, Interfax reports, citing the agriculture ministry.

• NOTE: Russia started calculating the export tax in rubles in July; previously, it was calculated in dollars, and the amount was markedly higher

French Wheat Sowing Progresses, Corn Harvest Nears End

The soft-wheat crop was 63% planted as of Oct. 24, up from 46% a week earlier, crops office France AgriMer said on its website.

• That compares with 58% at the same time last year
• Winter-barley was 80% planted, versus 67% a week earlier
  • Compares with 76% last year
• Corn was 96% harvested, up from 92% a week earlier
  • Compares with 51% last year

Argentine Corn, Wheat Crop Estimates Latest: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2022-23 corn area maintained at 7.3m ha, with 22% of planting complete
• 2022-23 wheat production est. maintained at 15.2m tons
• The following table compares most current data to previous week and last year’s crop:

Argentina Wheat Output May Fall To as Low as 12.5m Tons: Rosario

Argentina’s drought-and-frost-battered wheat crop may yield just 12.5m metric tons, down from its latest estimate of 13.7m, the Rosario Board of Trade said in a special report.

• “The wheat season still hasn’t reached a floor for production”: Board of Trade
• “We can see a scenario of losses that leaves production at 12.5m tons. The next estimate depends on what occurs with possible future frosts and the recovery of wheat in Buenos Aires province after rains fell”: Board of Trade

Indonesia to Raise Crude Palm Reference Price for Nov. 1-15

Govt sets crude palm oil reference price at $770.88/ton for Nov. 1-15, higher than $713.89 a ton in Oct 16-31, says Musdhalifah Machmud, deputy for food and agriculture at the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, by text messages.

• Higher reference price will push up CPO export tax to $18/ton from $3/ton in the last two weeks of October
• Govt is still discussing plan to extend export levy waiver beyond October, Machmud says

USDA forecasts 23% y/y rebound in Kazakhstan’s wheat and barley output for 2022-23

Kazakhstan’s wheat and barley output is expected to rebound by 23% y/y to 14.5mn tonnes in the 2022-23 marketing year and regain its market share lost due to lower production last season, the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected.

• Exports of barley, wheat and wheat flour are forecast to reach multiyear highs on strong production and steady demand from importing nations, the USDA said.
• The USDA boosted its forecast based on government reporting, as data pointed to improved precipitation and weather conditions along with an optimistic consensus among wheat producers.

Seed Giant Bayer Shortens Corn Stalks to Withstand Extreme Winds

• Technology promises corn plants 30% smaller with same yields
• A derecho leveled fields in 2020, caused billions in damage

With corn stalks facing greater risks of being toppled by extreme winds, Bayer AG is working to make the plants shorter.

So-called short-stature corn will grow around five feet (1.5 meters) to seven feet, compared with the traditional height of 9-to-12 feet, said Bob Reiter, head of research and development for Bayer’s crop science division.

The pivot to shorter plants comes as farmers face extreme weather events at a seemingly faster pace. In 2020, a severe derecho leveled grain fields with winds greater than 100 miles-per-hour (161 kilometers), causing $11 billion in damages in the US Midwest.

“This new system will be a game changer in corn production,” said Reiter.

The reduced stature also allows for greater planting density, which should limit yield loss for growers, the company said. Farmers will be able to use standard chemical equipment on the ground all year long rather than switch to planes to spray chemicals once the plants reach their full height.

Bayer’s new shorter-stature corn plants.

The company expects to raise about 60,000 acres of the corn in the next year. Bayer, the largest crop biotechnology company in the world, plans to roll out the seeds nationally in 2024 and expects it to spread to more than 700,000 acres.

Some US Farms Are So Dry the Dirt Is Repelling Fertilizer

Drought is rapidly expanding across America’s crop belt, making it so dry that in some fields fertilizer is evaporating from the soil and plants are struggling to emerge from the ground.

Almost three-quarters of the US’s winter wheat growing area is in moderate to intense drought, according to the latest government data. That’s a record high based on records going back to 2000. Dryness this time of year not only stunts the growth of winter wheat, but can hamper fertilizer applications on fields for crops to be planted in the spring — both of which could reduce crop yields and push prices higher.

A corn farmer trying to put fall fertilizer down to help in the spring isn’t going to invest in applying the nutrients if a lot of it is going to evaporate and disappear, said Gary Millershaski, chairman of the Kansas Wheat Commission.

Millershaski, who farms wheat and corn in the severely drought-struck southwestern part of the state, said he’s planting 4,000 acres of winter wheat this year and will be happy if he gets 1,500. “When it is this dry you don’t know if will sprout and die or come up next year.”

Farmers are busy finishing up planting winter wheat — a variety that typically comes up from the ground before going dormant during the coldest months and then resuming growth as temperatures warm. But lack of moisture could hinder or even prevent some plants from emerging until spring, putting yields at significant risk.

The rate of emerged plants is already trailing the average pace even though planting has gone as planned, said Mark Nelson, director of commodities at the Kansas Farm Bureau.

While spring fertilizer applications are seen as more critical, some farmers routinely rely on early application due to soil conditions or other issues. Growers will need to be extra careful this year to test their fields to see how much fertilizer is actually needed.

“It’s fair to say we are concerned about fertilizer applications in the dry soils and how effective they are going to be,” said Nelson.