Global Ag News for Oct 26.23

TOP HEADLINES

Ukraine’s New Shipping Corridor Temporarily Closed: Official

Ukraine has temporarily paused traffic in its new Black Sea shipping corridor, according to a government official.

Vessel movements were suspended due to tax and customs issues, the official said, asking not to be identified.

Ukraine had recently opened the unilateral corridor, after Russia in July pulled out of the Black Sea grain deal that had guaranteed safe movement of crop-export vessels amid the war. It had been used to ship more than 700,000 tons of grain so far, the agriculture minister said this week.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 5 1/2 in SRW, up 3 1/4 in HRW, up 6 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal down $6.20; Soyoil up 0.76.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 12 in SRW, down 17 3/4 in HRW, down 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 14 3/4; Soybeans down 9 3/4; Soymeal down $0.90; Soyoil down 0.03.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 32 1/2 in SRW, down 11 1/2 in HRW, up 18 in HRS; Corn is up 4; Soybeans up 16; Soymeal up $41.80; Soyoil down 2.47.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 27.5% in SRW, down 26.5% in HRW, down 22.5% in HRS; Corn is down 29.1%; Soybeans down 15.0%; Soymeal down 11.6%; Soyoil down 16.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 24) Soybeans up 25 yuan; Soymeal down 8; Soyoil up 84; Palm oil up 76; Corn down 24 — Malaysian Palm is up 82. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 82 ringgit (+2.23%) at 3761.

There were changes in registrations (-5 Soyoil, -8 Soymeal). Registration total: 3,005 SRW Wheat contracts; 735 Oats; 4 Corn; 220 Soybeans; 62 Soyoil; 59 Soymeal; 400 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 25 were: SRW Wheat up 8,689 contracts, HRW Wheat down 901, Corn up 3,120, Soybeans down 7,672, Soymeal up 1,647, Soyoil up 6,644.

Northern Plains: Periods of rain and snow, which may be heavy at times, continue into the weekend. Temperatures are plummeting behind a cold front, which will last into next week, and be harsher over the heavier snow cover. The heavy precipitation and snow accumulation will make fieldwork very difficult to accomplish, and may lead to quality concerns for corn left out in the field.

Central/Southern Plains: Including some heavy rain from Monday, rounds of heavy precipitation will move through the region through early next week. Far western areas may not see all that much, however, which will only slightly benefit soil moisture for winter wheat establishment. From Texas to eastern Kansas, heavy rain will help with drought, but may cause flooding. Cold air will gradually fill in through the region, which will eventually cause widespread frosts and freezes as well as turn some precipitation over to snow. Accumulations will be possible, mostly in parts of Nebraska and northeast Colorado this weekend. The cold shot will likely be somewhat brief, with temperatures moderating by late next week.

Midwest: Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move through the region going into early next week as a front drapes across the region and several storm systems move along it. Temperatures may waffle around in the middle of the region, but eventually, the cold air will win out, spreading through the region early next week. That may cause some areas of snow, especially with cold air moving over the warm Great Lakes, inducing some lake-effect snow. The cold may be brief, with moderating temperatures by later next week. Rain will cause issues with remaining fieldwork.

Brazil: Southern Brazil is getting a brief break in the heavy rain, but more is forecast for the weekend. Showers have moved north into central Brazil, which has been much drier than normal in most spots for the last several weeks. The increased rainfall will bring better conditions for planting and early growth for soybeans in central areas, but continues to cause concerns for wheat quality and harvest in the south, as well as planting for corn and soybeans.

Argentina: Areas of rain that went through over the weekend continued on Monday, helping to reverse some of the dryness that has been concerning for filling winter wheat and corn planting. The country will be in a more active pattern for the next couple of weeks, with more areas of showers moving through. It may not be all that widespread and heavy which would be preferred, but it is a better turnaround than the very dry conditions seen over the last few months.

Australia: A cold front moving through the southeast brought light showers to the area over the last couple of days. As the front works northward, it may produce needed showers for coastal areas, but inland areas are likely to stay dry. Overall, conditions continue to be unfavorable for filling wheat and canola, but better for early harvest of a drought-reduced crop. Conditions for cotton and sorghum are also unfavorable in the dry soils. Very little precipitation is forecast for the next week.

The player sheet for Oct. 25 had funds: net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 4,000 corn, sellers of 3,500 soybeans, sellers of 3,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 4,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed private sales of 126,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China in the 2023/24 marketing year that began Sept. 1.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 52,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender on Thursday

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 50,100 metric tons of rice largely from the United States
• CORN TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued an international tender to purchase about 180,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of six analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Oct. 19.

• Corn est. range 600k – 1,400k tons, with avg of 905k
• Soybean est. range 700k – 1,500k tons, with avg of 1,010k

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 1.4% to 21.398M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 21.236 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.04m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.043m

Canada Crushed 922K Tons of Canola in September: StatsCan

Canola processing rose 16.2% in September from a year ago, according to Statistics Canada data released Wednesday on agency’s website.

• Oil production totaled 390k tons, and meal output at 540k tons
• Aug.-Sept. crushings up 22.8% from year ago to 1.752m tons
• NOTE: Canada is the world’s top canola grower

Indonesia Sept. Palm Oil Exports Fall 14.7% M/m: Intertek

Indonesia’s palm oil exports fell 14.7% m/m in September versus -2.24% in August, according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Palm oil exports fell to 2.276m tons from 2.668m tons in August
• Crude palm oil shipments fell to 227,501 tons from 426,337 tons in August
• RBD palm olein shipments fell to 1.01m tons from 1.096m tons in August
• RBD palm oil shipments fell to 347,343 tons from 402,448 tons in August
• Palm oil sales to European Union fell to 357,994 tons from 406,275 tons in August
• Palm oil sales to India fell to 528,161 tons from 832,941 tons in August
• Palm oil sales to China rose to 627,120 tons from 602,690 tons in August

Russia Sees 2023 Grain Harvest at Second-Highest Ever: Ministry

Russia’s grain harvest is seen at 140m tons, which would likely be the second-highest volume ever, agriculture minister Dmitry Patrushev said on state television.

• Wheat harvest seen at around 93m tons
• NOTE: Agriculture ministry boosted outlook from previous estimate of 135m tons of grain and 90m tons of wheat earlier in October

Worst of Amazon Rivers Drought ‘Is Behind Us’: CEO Amport

Water levels in the Amazon waterways are improving after a record drought disrupted transportation for some cargoes, according to the CEO of Amport.

• Amazon rivers have reached historically low levels this year
• “Over the last 15 days, the Madeira river is recovering its normal level for this time of the year,” said Flavio Acatauassu, president of Amport, a group representing companies operating at the Miritituba terminal including Cargill Inc., Louis Dreyfus Co. and Unitapajos, a joint venture between Bunge Ltd. and Brazil’s Amaggi.
  • “The worst is behind us,” said Acatauassu
• “The only river that hit a record low this year was the Negro river that is not a waterway for grains transportation,” he said.
  • NOTE: The majority of grains moved by barge in Brazil starts in the Madeira and Tapajos rivers, which flow into the Amazonas river to connect with several other ports in the Northern Arc.

Ukraine hopes to export at least 1 mln T grain via new Black Sea route in October

Ukrainian grain shipments through a new Black Sea export corridor may exceed one million metric tons in October, first deputy agriculture minister Taras Vysotskiy said late on Wednesday.

“The situation is getting better and if you look at September and the first half of October, there is already 700,000 tons of (grain exports) and by the month (October) it may be one million and more,” he told the national television.

Ukraine launched a “humanitarian corridor” for ships bound for African and Asian markets and to try to circumvent a de facto blockade after Russia abandoned a deal this summer that had guaranteed Kyiv’s exports during the war.

A senior agricultural official said later that month it was considering using the route for grain shipments.

Ukrainian authorities have said a total of 1.5 million tons of various cargo were exported via the new route since it started operating in late August.

Ukrainian shipping sources said more than 40 cargo vessels have entered the corridor so far.

Ukrainian agricultural producers this week said the new route could enable exports of up to 2.5 million tons of food a month, almost offsetting the impact of Russia’s decision to quit the previous U.N.-brokered deal.

That deal collapsed in July as Russia said it would no longer recognise it because its demand had not been met for sanctions on its grain and fertiliser exports to be lifted.

Ukraine’s agriculture ministry said on Wednesday its grain exports had fallen to 8.56 million tons so far in the 2023/24 July-June marketing season as of Oct. 24. It gave no direct comparative data, but said that by Oct. 28 last year, Ukraine had exported 12.34 million tons of grain.

Brazil’s dry weather raises concerns about soybean planting

The pace of soybean planting in Brazil is making steady progress, approaching the 20% mark overall. But there are concerns due to continued dry conditions in the northern region, causing some farmers to hesitate to plant without a reliable forecast of moisture, Farm Progress reported October 20.

Brazil has now entered its prime planting window in Mato Grosso, a key soybean-producing region, where planting progress is expected to pick up in the coming weeks.

According to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA), as of October 13 the state had already planted 35% of its soybean crop; while this lags slightly behind last year’s pace, it remains above the historical five-year average.

If the current pace continues, Mato Grosso is expected to reach close to 85% planting completion by the end of the month. Rainfall patterns are favouring the western half of the state, with the 10-day forecast indicating a gradual decrease in precipitation.

In the eastern half of the state, little to no rainfall is expected, and high temperatures are causing the limited moisture to evaporate, which might cause some regions to consider replanting.

The central part of Mato Grosso, which is the primary soybean-production area, could receive up to an inch of rainfall. While this may not be sufficient to build soil moisture, it could help with crop germination and encourage farmers to continue planting.

Some risk-averse farmers are advancing their planting activities, but others, particularly in north-central Mato Grosso, are choosing to wait for ideal planting conditions rather than rushing the process to accommodate the second crop of corn that follows the soybeans.

In southern Brazil, excessive rainfall remains a concern, with most areas anticipating an additional two to six inches of precipitation in the next 10 days.

While the rain is generally beneficial for crops that have already been planted, there are reports of yellowing in corn due to nitrogen leaching, highlighting the challenges posed by excess moisture.

Czech 2023 grain harvest seen at 7.40 mln tonnes -statistics office

The Czech Republic’s 2023 grain harvest was seen at 7.40 million tonnes in September, above July estimates, data from the Czech Statistics Bureau (CSU) showed on Thursday.

Last year, the grain harvest totalled 7.57 million tones.

China’s sow herd at 42.4 mln at end Q3, down 2.8% y/y – govt

China had 42.4 million sows at the end of the third quarter this year, falling 2.8% versus a year ago, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said on Thursday.

Pig herd shrunk 0.4% year-on-year to 44.23 million in the same period.

Quarter-on-quarter, the sow herd fell 1.3% while the pig herd rose 1.6%.

US Poultry Slaughter Fell 4.6% Y/y in September: USDA

Slaughter fell to 5.63 billion pounds, according to the USDA’s monthly poultry slaughter report released on the agency’s website.

• Chicken live weight fell 5.4% in September from year ago
• Chickens condemned post-mortem down 12.4% y/y
  • Condemned ante-mortem down 12.7% y/y

Fertilizer Subsidy Cut Gives India Budget Breathing Room

India’s budget pressure from its pricey nutrient-based subsidy is easing as fertilizer prices fall and domestic inventory rises. The government cut its expect six-month subsidy by 57% to $2.7 billion as fertilizer prices soften. Domestic producers such as Chambal Fertilisers, Coromandel International, DCM Shriram and Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers benefit from subsidized farmers and production subsidies.

Inventory, Prices Set India Up for Subsidy Break

With over 16 million metric tons of fertilizer available in Indian warehouses and prices falling, India’s government cut its expected fertilizer subsidy by 57%. In the six months ending March 31, the government will direct 223.03 billion rupees ($2.7 billion) in support of fertilizer purchases. Indian urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP) inventory is more than double the average after off-season buying shored up supplies. India consumes nearly 35 million metric tons of urea annually and has one-third of that in warehouses ahead of its fiscal 2H season.

The government uses the subsidy to reimburse companies for selling fertilizers to farmers at below-market prices. Chambal Fertilisers, Coromandel International, DCM Shriram and Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers are India’s largest publicly traded producers.

Fertilizer Purchase Delays Cause Concern in Brazil

The loading window for nitrogen products in Brazil is starting to cause concern as buyers delay fertilizer purchases and delivery times for vessels stretch to 20-25 days to the country’s southern ports. Producers are worried that fertilizer won’t be available in time for application if additional purchasing delays push vessel-loading times to December.

Nitrogen, Potash Prices Stable, MAP Firms

Brazil urea prices held at last week’s $390-$400 a metric ton (mt) range on a cost-and-freight (CFR) basis, with sellers lifting new offers to $410 while bids slipped to $380-$385. Ammonium sulfate was also stable at last week’s $210-$220/mt CFR, with new bids falling to $195-$205 but no sales confirmed at this level. Monoammonium phosphate (MAP) prices increased again in Brazil, rising to $560-$565/mt CFR from last week’s $550-$560, while potash was unchanged from a $330-$350/mt CFR range.

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.