Global Ag News for Oct 25th
TODAY – EXPORT INSPECTIONS, CROP PROGRESS
Wheat prices overnight are up 6 3/4 in SRW, up 4 in HRW, up 6 in HRS; Corn is up 2 3/4; Soybeans up 8 1/4; Soymeal up $0.21; Soyoil up 0.44.
Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 26 1/2 in SRW, up 29 in HRW, up 51 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 8; Soybeans up 10; Soymeal up $1.16; Soyoil up 0.51. For the month to date wheat prices are up 37 1/4 in SRW, up 46 1/4 in HRW, up 106 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 4; Soybeans down 26 1/2; Soymeal up $0.80; Soyoil up 3.84.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans up 25 yuan ; Soymeal up 18; Soyoil down 14; Palm oil down 20; Corn up 16 — Malasyian Palm is up 46. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 46 ringgit (+0.93%) at 4970 amid stronger edible oil prices, while investors fretted that supply shortages may stretch to next year.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 17 Corn; 1 Soybeans; 233 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 22 were: SRW Wheat up 1,019 contracts, HRW Wheat down 5,253, Corn up 5,181, Soybeans down 58,730, Soymeal up 1,554, Soyoil down 397.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated showers Friday. Scattered showers south Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday. East: Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday, near normal Sunday.
The player sheet for Oct. 22 had funds: net buyers of 7,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,500 corn, buyers of 2,500 soybeans, buyers of 2,500 soymeal, and sellers of 1,000 soyoil.
- WHEAT, BARLEY SALE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 50,000 tonnes of soft wheat and 50,000 tonnes of animal feed barley in an international tender which closed on Friday
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
- WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: An Ethiopian government agency has issued a new international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat
Spring Wheat Hits $10 for First Time Since 2012 on Scant Supply
- Weather woes from America to Kazakhstan are pinching reserves
- Drought cut U.S. harvest by 44%, stoking food inflation
Spring wheat touched $10 a bushel for the first time since 2012 after extreme drought and heat slashed this year’s production of the grain used to make pizza dough and bagels.
Overall U.S. production this year fell 44% from 2020 as farmers planted fewer acres, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Yields were skimpy, with North Dakota, the biggest-producing state, shrinking by 32%.
Global wheat supplies are running short in big producing regions worldwide and the U.S. has forecast global stockpiles to end the season at a five-year low.
North America has been pummeled by hot, dry weather this season, and Russian and Kazakhstan’s spring wheat areas were also hit by drought. That curbed global production of spring wheat by 19 million tons, Dan Basse, president of consultant AgResource, said at the GrainCom conference in Geneva this week.
- Most-active futures in Minneapolis climbed 2% to $10.05 a bushel at 8:57 a.m. local time.
- Production of durum wheat, which is relied on to make high-quality pasta, dropped 46%, according to USDA
Russian Wheat Exports Decline 12% So Far This Season: Agency
Wheat shipments for the 2021-22 season amounted to 14.7m tons as of Oct. 21, down 12% from a year earlier, the Federal Center of Quality and Safety Assurance for Grain and Grain Products said on its website, citing inspections before exports.
- That means wheat exports totaled about 1.1m tons in the week to Oct. 21, compared with about 800k tons a week earlier
- Exports of all grains are at 17m tons so far this season
- Barley exports declined 34% y/y, corn rose 9%
China sells 88.5% of wheat offered at state reserves auction
China sold 891,938 tonnes of wheat, or 88.5% of the total on offer, in the first auction of state reserves since the new harvest, the National Grain Trade Center said on Monday. The grain was sold at an average price of 2,366 yuan ($371) per tonne, according to the notice, lower than the current cash prices of wheat.
Malaysia, Indonesia to Jointly Fight Anti-Palm Oil Campaigns
The world’s biggest palm oil growers Malaysia and Indonesia will work together to fight against anti-palm oil campaigns launched by the European Union and Australia, according to the Malaysian Plantations Industry and Commodities Ministry.
- The campaigns are unfounded and do not reflect sustainability efforts of the industry, the ministry said in a statement Monday. They also contradict EU’s free-trade commitments with the WTO
- While Malaysia is prepared to take in 32,000 plantation workers, including from Indonesia, the workers’ arrivals are still subject to MoU agreements that will be outlined in the near term
Malaysia’s Oct. 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 1,201,422 Tons: AmSpec
Shipments fall 8.5% m/m from a revised 1,312,449 tons exported during Sept. 1-25, according to AmSpec Agri on Monday.
Malaysia Oct. 1-25 Palm Oil Exports -12.12% M/m: Intertek
Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell 12.12% m/m during Oct. 1-25, according to Intertek Testing Services.
Centre to hold meeting with states on Monday to curb edible oil prices
India’s Department of Food and Public Distribution (DFPD) on Sunday said that the government will be meeting all states and Union Territories on Monday through video conferencing to review the action taken on the stock limit order on edible oil prices.
The DFPD is monitoring the prices of edible oils and their availability to consumers. This is especially important to the context of the upcoming festival season in which demand for edible oils will increase.
On October 10, the Centre had imposed stock limits on traders of edible oils and oilseeds, barring certain importers and exporters, till March 31, in a bid to control domestic prices and provide relief to consumers.
State governments and union territories were to decide the stock limit to be imposed on edible oils and oilseeds after taking into account the available stock and consumption pattern of that particular state or UT.
In a letter written to all states by Union Food Secretary Sudhanshu Pandey on Friday, the department outlined initiatives taken by the Centre to ease prices of edible oils for the relief of consumer and keeping the festive season in mind.
The Centre has already taken various steps to cool down the high prices, including sharp reduction in import duties of palm oil, sunflower oil and soyabean oil.
U.S. Cattle on Feed Fell to 11.55M Head on Oct. 1
The feedlot herd fell 1.4% from a year ago, according to the USDA’s monthly report. Analysts were expecting a drop of 0.6%
- Placements onto feedlots down 2.9% y/y to 2.163m head
- Cattle marketed from feedlots declined 3.1% to 1.789m head
U.S. Beef Production Up 2.6% This Week, Pork Down: USDA
- Cattle slaughter up 2.3% from a week ago to 661m head
- Pork production down 0.3% from a week ago, hog slaughter falls 0.7%
- For the year, beef production is 2.8% above last year’s level at this time, while pork is 2% below
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