Global Ag News for Oct 24.23
Warm Autumn Hurts Yield Forecast for EU Corn, Sunflowers: MARS
Corn and sunflower yields in the EU are seen lower than last month, after unseasonable autumn warmth and low rainfall in much of Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Greece, the European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said in a report.
- Corn yield estimate cut to 7.13 tons/hectare, versus a September forecast for 7.26 tons/hectare
- Meanwhile, mild weather in northern regions was favorable for summer-crop growth and harvesting, the report said
- Conditions there have also been good for winter-crop planting, although persistent wetness limited sowing in Estonia and Finland
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are down 4 1/4 in SRW, down 7 1/2 in HRW, down 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/2; Soybeans down 1 3/4; Soymeal down $1.70; Soyoil down 0.83.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 3 in SRW, down 6 3/4 in HRW, up 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 8 3/4; Soybeans down 16 1/2; Soymeal down $5.10; Soyoil down 2.28.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 41 1/2 in SRW, down 1/2 in HRW, up 25 in HRS; Corn is up 10; Soybeans up 9 1/4; Soymeal up $37.60; Soyoil down 4.72.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 26.4% in SRW, down 25.3% in HRW, down 21.8% in HRS; Corn is down 28.3%; Soybeans down 15.4%; Soymeal down 12.5%; Soyoil down 19.9%.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 24) Soybeans down 45 yuan; Soymeal down 48; Soyoil down 98; Palm oil down 92; Corn up 6 — Malaysian Palm is down 91. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 91 ringgit (-2.42%) at 3662.
There were changes in registrations (-82 Soymeal). Registration total: 3,005 SRW Wheat contracts; 735 Oats; 4 Corn; 220 Soybeans; 67 Soyoil; 73 Soymeal; 400 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 23 were: SRW Wheat up 1,298 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,961, Corn down 873, Soybeans down 3,818, Soymeal up 6,695, Soyoil up 2,193.
Northern Plains: Mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures extended across the area this weekend, benefiting fieldwork progress. Active weather returns through much of this week with periods of rain showers and even some snowfall by the end of the week. Temperatures will also become quite a bit cooler by the end of the week. With the forecast precipitation this week, it may become more difficult to get fall fieldwork done in a timely manner in such an active pattern.
Central/Southern Plains: Southwestern areas remained dry this weekend and soil moisture is drying up for wheat establishment. Meanwhile, mostly dry conditions took place this weekend for northern areas, allowing for more fieldwork progress. The weather pattern turns active this week with growing confidence that widespread rainfall will develop across the Plains as a series of low pressure systems move through the region. Portions of the area could see heavy rainfall as a low pressure system interacts with tropical moisture from remnants of Tropical Depression Norma early this week.
Midwest: A quick system brought light rainfall for northern and eastern locations early this weekend. Periods of rain showers are likely throughout much of this week as a series of low pressure systems move across the region. These showers certainly have potential to delay fieldwork for some. Even some wintry precipitation cannot be ruled out by the end of this week and into the weekend. Winter wheat will benefit from increased soil moisture but fieldwork could be delayed.
Brazil: Areas of heavy rainfall last week have led to wetness issues for filling and harvest of winter wheat, as well as corn and soybean planting, in southern Brazil. The wetness may be lending to poorer wheat quality for some producers. More scattered rainfall is expected across southern Brazil this week, with areas of heavy rain possible by the end of the week. Conditions have been drier than normal in central Brazil recently and some producers may be dealing with replanting since their seed has been sitting in such dry soil. However, rain chances should increase throughout the week as a few systems move through central Brazil.
Argentina: While a few scattered showers fell early last week, conditions have been drier than normal, which has been unfavorable for filling winter wheat and corn planting. Scattered rain showers entered central and northern Argentina this weekend and are expected to continue through early this week. More isolated to scattered showers may form across central areas by this weekend. These rounds of showers may provide some producers with increased soil moisture, but due to the scattered nature of the showers, other producers may stay on the dry side.
The player sheet for Oct. 23 had funds: net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 3,000 corn, buyers of 5,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.
- WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 52,000 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.
- CORN TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued an international tender to purchase about 180,000 metric tons of animal feed corn.
- RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 50,100 metric tons of rice largely from the United States.
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn 59% Harvested, Soybeans 76% Harvested
Highlights from the report:
- Corn harvest 59% vs 45% last week, and 59% a year ago
- Soybeans harvested 76% vs 62% last week, and 78% a year ago
- Winter wheat planted 77% vs 68% last week, and 78% a year ago
- Winter wheat emerged 53% vs 39% last week, and 47% a year ago
- Cotton 29% G/E vs 30% last week, and 30% a year ago
- Cotton harvested 41% vs 33% last week, and 44% a year ago
US Inspected 438k Tons of Corn for Export, 2.459m of Soybeans
In week ending Oct. 19, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.
- Wheat: 169k tons vs 356k the previous wk, 133k a yr ago
- Soybeans: 2,459k tons vs 2,040k the previous wk, 2,920k a yr ago
- Corn: 438k tons vs 467k the previous wk, 473k a yr ago
US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Oct. 19
Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Oct. 19 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.
- Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 2.01m tons of the 2.46m total inspected
- Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Taiwan led in wheat
Brazil’s new-soy farmer selling lags as prices fail to entice capitalized growers
Soybean farmers in the world’s top supplier of the oilseed are in no rush to sell their new beans as they are well capitalized from previous years of bonanza and prices remain pressured, according to two agribusiness consultancies on Monday.
StoneX estimates 25% of Brazil’s new soy crop, projected to reach around 164 million metric tons, have been sold so far. This is ahead of last year’s 16.9% level but behind the preceding four seasons.
Ana Luiza Lodi, a StoneX grains analyst, said soy prices have been pressured and growers come “from very good harvests,” which means their pockets are full.
Farmers in top growing area Mato Grosso, for example, have sold less than a third of their estimated crop, which they are still planting, StoneX data showed. At the same time Rio Grande Do Sul and Parana states have sold only 12% and 16% respectively of their new soybeans.
Both states, which rank as Brazil’s second and third biggest soy growers depending on the season, also stand out for still having about a quarter of their old-crop soy produce unsold, according to StoneX data.
Consultancy Safras & Mercado estimates around 35 million tons of Brazil’s new crop had been traded in through Oct. 6, representing about just above a fifth of estimated output. That is ahead of last year’s 18.8% but behind the 30.6% five-year average for this time in the season.
The factors leading to the delay in commercialization are not new, said Luiz Roque, an analyst at Safras.
He noted growers come from a good harvest, except in drought-stricken Rio Grande do Sul, so they are giving themselves “the luxury” of not having to commit much of their 2023/24 crop in advance.
“In addition, prices dropped significantly in the first half of the year, and farmers didn’t want to sell,” Roque said.
Brazil Soybean Planting 30% Done as of Oct. 19: AgRural
Compares with 17% a week earlier and 34% last year, consulting firm AgRural says in an emailed report.
Summer corn seeding in Brazil’s Center-South region is 46% done, compared with 41% a week before and 51% last year
Seeding is at its final stretch in Parana and Santa Catarina states, and delayed in Rio Grande do Sul due to excessive rainfall
U.S. Soybean Meal Exports Expected to Reach Record High
U.S. soybean meal exports set a record at an estimated 13.2 million tons in MY 2022/23 (Oct-Sep), valued at nearly $7 billion, driven by increased soybean crush to supply feedstock oil for growing U.S. biomass-based diesel production. The new record came from substantial expansion in shipments to the European Union and Vietnam as drought in Argentina, usually the world’s largest soybean meal exporter, severely reduced its exportable supplies. Additionally, U.S. soybean meal exports to the Philippines, Colombia, and Mexico held firm despite a strong dollar.
In 2023/24, U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast to again reach a new record of 13.9 million tons. U.S. export prices are likely to remain competitive with South American supplies as the United States continues to produce more soybean meal than will be needed domestically, ensuring growing supplies are available to the global market.
Ukraine Says Shipped 700K Tons of Grain Via Temporary Sea Route
Ukraine has exported almost 700k tons of grain so far using a temporary corridor through the Black Sea, according to Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi.
- Shipments mainly went to Europe and Africa; 38 ships entered the ports and more than 30 left, not all with grain, minister said
- Most agriculture exports still go via the Danube through Romania
- NOTE: Kyiv set up its temporary route from deep-sea ports in Greater Odesa after Russia exited a safe corridor deal backed by the United Nations and Turkey in July
APK-Inform cuts Ukraine 2023/24 grain crop outlook, ups export estimates
Agriculture consultancy APK-Inform on Monday cut its 2023 Ukraine grain harvest forecast to 53.4 million metric tons from a previous outlook of 54.2 million tons.
The consultancy lowered its forecast for the corn harvest to 24.8 million tons from 25.6 million, while keeping its wheat output forecast unchanged at 21.5 million tons.
APK-Inform said Ukraine could export 34.7 million tons of grain in the 2023/24 July-June season, including 13 million tons of wheat and 19 million tons of corn.
WHEAT/CEPEA: Demand for wheat bran increases and raises prices in Brazil
The prices for wheat bran increased in Brazil last week, boosted by higher demand, majorly from feed processors. With the unwillingness of farmers in selling corn, agents from feed processors raised purchases of wheat bran. It is important to mention that purchasers have been attracted by the low prices of wheat bran, which, in September/23, hit the lowest levels since 2020, in nominal terms.
On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, the prices for bagged wheat bran rose 1.4% last week (16-20) compared to that in the previous week (9-13), and for the product in bulk, 0.52%. On the other hand, for wheat flour, prices are fading, influenced by low demand.
WHEAT GRAIN – In light of the higher demand for wheat bran, wheat processors raised the demand for the raw material. Wheat grain prices were also influenced by the current irregular weather conditions in South America. The quality of the cereal has been compromised by the high moisture at the end of crops’ development, in both Brazil and Argentina. According to Emater/RS, 19% of the crops have been harvested in RS, more than the 5% harvested a year ago.
The share of Rio Grande do Sul in the total produced in Brazil is currently at 46%, and of Paraná, 38%, according to Conab. In Paraná, 80% had been harvested by Oct. 19th, according to Deral/Seab. As for the national crop, 51.8% had been harvested by Oct. 14th, according to Conab, more than the 30.6% from the same period last year.
Thus, between October 13-20, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) in Paraná rose a staggering 3.48%; in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values increased 2.6%. In Santa Catarina, values rose 1.84% and 0.21%, respectively. In São Paulo, prices increased 1.28% in the wholesale market. In Rio Grande do Sul, values rose 3.5% in the wholesale market, but dropped 1.05% in the over-the-counter market.
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