Global Ag News for Oct 24.23
Rains on Parched Argentina Farms Can Unlock Soy Planting: Bourse
Rains over the weekend in Argentina, plus the forecast for more downpours next week, are alleviating concerns for the upcoming soy planting season, the Rosario Board of Trade said in a report.
- NOTE: The bulk of Argentine soy planting takes place in November, December
- Before the rains, 90% of Argentina’s prime farm region, the so-called Zona Nucleo, was suffering drought conditions, hurting wheat growth and hampering corn planting
- The rains are therefore also a relief for those crops
- Rains came in “key areas” and more are expected over the next two weeks, the government said in a separate report
- “The recent rains start to change the panorama for soy and corn”
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are up 1 3/4 in SRW, up 1 3/4 in HRW, up 7 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans up 1 1/4; Soymeal up $1.60; Soyoil up 0.42.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 3 3/4 in SRW, down 5 1/4 in HRW, up 5 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 11 1/4; Soybeans down 4 1/2; Soymeal up $11.90; Soyoil down 1.65.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 40 3/4 in SRW, up 1 in HRW, up 26 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 8 1/4; Soybeans up 21 1/4; Soymeal up $54.60; Soyoil down 4.11.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 26.5% in SRW, down 25.1% in HRW, down 21.6% in HRS; Corn is down 28.6%; Soybeans down 14.7%; Soymeal down 8.9%; Soyoil down 18.9%.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 24) Soybeans down 5 yuan; Soymeal up 43; Soyoil down 44; Palm oil down 54; Corn up 6 — Malaysian Palm is up 15. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 15 ringgit (+0.41%) at 3682.
There were changes in registrations (-6 Soymeal). Registration total: 3,005 SRW Wheat contracts; 735 Oats; 4 Corn; 220 Soybeans; 67 Soyoil; 67 Soymeal; 400 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 24 were: SRW Wheat down 793 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,494, Corn up 1,384, Soybeans up 161, Soymeal up 4,433, Soyoil up 8,208.
Northern Plains: Mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures extended across the area this weekend, benefiting fieldwork progress. Active weather returns through much of this week with periods of rain showers and snow, which may be heavy at times through the weekend. Temperatures are plummeting behind a cold front, which will last into next week. The heavy precipitation and snow accumulation will make fieldwork very difficult to accomplish, and may lead to quality concerns for corn left out in the field.
Central/Southern Plains: Rounds of heavy precipitation will move through the region through early next week. Far western areas may not see all that much, however, which will only slightly benefit soil moisture for winter wheat establishment. From Texas to eastern Kansas, heavy rain will help with drought, but may cause flooding. Cold air will gradually fill in through the region, which will eventually cause widespread frosts and freezes as well as turn some precipitation over to snow. Accumulations will be possible, mostly in parts of Nebraska and northeast Colorado this weekend. The cold shot will likely be somewhat brief, with temperatures moderating by the middle of next week.
Midwest: Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move through the region going into early next week as a front drapes across the region and several storm systems move along it. Temperatures may waffle around in the middle of the region, but eventually, the cold air will win out, spreading through the region early next week. That may cause some areas of snow, especially with cold air moving over the warm Great Lakes, inducing some lake-effect snows. The cold may be brief, with moderating temperatures by later next week. Rain will cause issues with remaining fieldwork.
Brazil: Areas of heavy rain continue over southern Brazil with several systems moving through over the next week. They will also increase precipitation over central Brazil, which has been much drier than normal in most spots for the last several weeks. The increased rainfall will bring better conditions for planting and early growth for soybeans in central areas, but continues to cause concerns for wheat quality and harvest in the south, as well as planting for corn and soybeans.
Argentina: Areas of rain that went through over the weekend continued on Monday, helping to reverse some of the dryness that has been concerning for winter wheat and corn planting. The country will be in a more active pattern for the next couple of weeks, with more areas of showers moving through. It may not be all that widespread heavy which would be preferred, but it is a better turnaround than the very dry conditions seen over the last few months.
The player sheet for Oct. 24 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,000 corn, sellers of 4,000 soybeans, buyers of 4,500 soymeal, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.
- CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday confirmed private sales of 117,200 metric tons of U.S. corn for delivery to Mexico in the 2023/24 marketing year that began Sept. 1.
- CHINA SIGNS FRAME CONTRACTS IN U.S.: A delegation of commodity importers from China signed agreements to buy billions of dollars’ worth of agricultural goods during a signing ceremony in Iowa on Monday, the U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC) said on Tuesday. The agreements were the first such bulk signings since 2017 between top soybean importer Beijing and the United States, the world’s second-largest supplier of the oilseed.
- RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 50,100 metric tons of rice largely from the United States
- CORN TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued an international tender to purchase about 180,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
- WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 52,000 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report
Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Oct. 20 are based on seven analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
- Production seen higher than last week at 1.043m b/d
- Stockpile avg est. 21.236m bbl vs 21.112m a week ago
- The EIA in Washington is scheduled to release the report at 10:30am Wednesday
EU Soft-Wheat Exports Fall 22% in Season Through Oct. 22
The European Union’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 reached 9.33 million tons as of Oct. 22, compared with 12m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.
- Leading destinations include Morocco (1.53m tons), Nigeria (1.02m tons) and Algeria (814k tons)
- Barley exports are at 2.37m tons, down 9% y/y
- Corn imports are at 5.45m tons, down 40% y/y
EU 2023/24 soybean imports down 3% by Oct 22, rapeseed down 39%
European Union soybean imports so far in the 2023/24 season that started in July had reached 3.35 million metric tons by Oct. 22, down 3% compared with 3.44 million a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday.
EU rapeseed imports in the same period totalled 1.34 million tons, down 39% against 2.20 million a year earlier.
Soymeal imports totalled 4.83 million tons, 2% lower than 4.94 million a year ago, while palm oil imports stood at 1.09 million tons, 5% below a year-earlier 1.15 million.
The European Commission listed the following five largest supplier countries to the EU per product so far in 2023/24 versus the year-earlier period:
Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 6.142 Million Tns In October – Anec
- BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 6.142 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 3.589 MILLION TNS IN OCT 2022 – ANEC
- BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 8.239 MILLION TNS IN OCT VERSUS 6.173 MILLION TNS IN OCT 2022 – ANEC
- BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.007 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 1.784 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER 2022 – ANEC
China signs US agriculture purchase agreements in first ceremony in years
A delegation of commodity importers from China on Monday signed agreements to buy billions of dollars’ worth of agricultural goods, mostly soybeans, during a ceremony in Iowa, the U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC) said on Tuesday.
The agreements, signed at the China-U.S. Sustainable Agricultural Trade Forum, were the first such bulk signings since 2017 between top soybean importer Beijing and the U.S., the world’s second-largest supplier of the oilseed.
The deals also included corn, sorghum and wheat, the U.S. Soybean Export Council said.
China’s crop import purchases from the U.S. are well below normal this year as Brazil, the world’ largest exporter of corn and soy, harvested bumper crops.
Top U.S. crop merchants Archer-Daniels-Midland ADM.N, Bunge BG.N and Cargill were among the companies that signed 11 purchasing agreements, the U.S. Soybean Export Council said.
The deals were signed as “frame contracts,” which are typically non-binding letters of intent to buy at a later date, without formal sales terms.
“These contracts illustrate the gains from trade: food is moving from surplus regions to deficit,” said Jason Hafemeister, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s acting deputy undersecretary for trade and foreign agricultural affairs.
As of Oct. 19, soybean purchases by China from the latest U.S. harvest were down 39% from the same time last year, according to USDA data. Its corn purchases were down 73% from a year prior.
“I think this is China saying, ‘Hey, we still want to have strong trade relations over soybeans but this is a year where we’re not going to be aggressively buying American soybeans,'” said Ted Seifried, chief market strategist for Zaner Ag Hedge.
Traders will be looking for confirmation of sales from the U.S. Agriculture Department in coming days, Seifried said.
Chinese soybean buyers attending a large U.S. soy export conference in August said that they do not see import volumes growing much more in the coming years as demand for the ingredient that is mostly used to make animal feed stabilizes.
China recently made rare purchases of U.S. soft red winter wheat, however, after rains damaged the quality of the Chinese harvest.
USDA attaché sees Ukraine 2023/24 corn crop at 30.7 million T
Following are selected highlights from a report released on Tuesday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service post in Kyiv:
“Marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is expected to be another favorable year for grain production in Ukraine, with production volumes exceeding the ones for the previous year, particularly for corn. Ukraine currently has higher-than-normal beginning stocks for corn and wheat. The export volumes which will be possible in the coming year will have an impact on what remains as ending stocks for MY 2023/24. Following Russia’s unilateral withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023, it is more difficult for Ukraine’s grains to reach global markets, but expansion of alternative export routes is ongoing … The corn production estimate for the crop currently being harvested is around 30.7 MMT (million metric tons) for MY2023/24, a 17% increase compared to the previous MY.”
Rain improves conditions for Ukraine’s winter crops – analyst
Rain across almost the entire territory of Ukraine has significantly improved conditions for the development of winter crops, which previously suffered from widespread drought, the APK-Inform consultancy said on Wednesday.
Drought has become common in Ukraine and farmers sow even in dry soil in the hope that winter precipitation and mild weather will allow the grain to germinate and survive.
“During the second 10-day period of October, weather conditions changed significantly – the period of rainless weather and drought in most areas stopped,” APK-Inform quoted state weather forecasters as saying.
“Moisture reserves were considerably replenished, and together with increased temperatures, favourable conditions for sprouting and vegetation of winter crops were formed.”
Ukraine’s agriculture ministry said on Tuesday that farmers had sown about 5 million hectares of winter crops as of Oct. 24.
The area included 3.46 million hectares of winter wheat, or 79.4% of the expected area, the ministry said in a statement.
Ukraine, among global major grain producers and exporters, is a traditional grower of winter wheat, which accounts for at least 95% of its overall wheat output.
Agriculture Minister Mykola Solsky said this month that Ukraine was likely to sow less winter wheat than it initially expected for the 2024 harvest due to the absence of rain in most regions.
Farmers sowed 4.46 million hectares of winter wheat, 612,200 hectares of winter barley and 1.376 million hectares of winter rapeseed for the 2023 harvest.
Ukraine is expected to harvest 79 million tons of grain and oilseed in 2023, with a 2023/24 exportable surplus total of about 50 million tons, the ministry has said.
Brazil Is In Talks for $2 Billion in Funding to Boost Crop Land
- Talks ongoing with investors in Asia, Middle East: official
- Plan is to give loans to farmers to recover degraded pastures
Brazil is in talks with international investors to get 10 billion reais ($2 billion) in funding before the end of the year as the agriculture powerhouse works to recover degraded pastureland to boost crop acreage.
The plan is to use the money to establish loans for farmers starting in 2024, Roberto Perosa, secretary of commerce and international relations at the nation’s agriculture ministry, said in an interview on the sidelines of an industry conference in Sao Paulo. The ongoing negotiations for funding include talks with sovereign funds, as well as other government-controlled entities in Asia and the Middle East, he said.
Brazil’s 10-year goal of recovering 40 million hectares (about 99 million acres) of degraded pasture, or lands once used for grazing that are no longer productive, is part of the country’s plan to continue expanding its production of crops like corn and soybeans while curbing deforestation of the Amazon. Europe recently banned imports on crop products that come from deforested area.
The ministry recently said Saudi Arabia’s state-owned fund Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Co. was among parties interested in contributing funding.
According to Perosa, the Brazilian government is seeking resources that producers’ could borrow at interest rates lower than traditional credit lines. More than 200,000 potential properties that could benefit from financing have already been mapped. Banco do Brasil could participate, structuring the loans to producers, he said.
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