Global Ag News for Oct 21st
TODAY – EXPORT SALES
Wheat prices overnight are down 4 3/4 in SRW, down 7 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans down 7 3/4; Soymeal down $0.19; Soyoil down 0.96.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 10 3/4 in SRW, up 9 1/2 in HRW, up 19 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 11 3/4; Soybeans up 20; Soymeal up $0.99; Soyoil up 2.45. For the month to date wheat prices are up 19 in SRW, up 21 in HRW, up 75 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans down 18 1/4; Soymeal down $2.20; Soyoil up 5.05.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans up 56 yuan ; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil up 324; Palm oil up 334; Corn up 17 — Malasyian Palm is down 113. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 113 ringgit (-2.23%) at 4958.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 17 Corn; 1 Soybeans; 233 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 1,273 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 20 were: SRW Wheat up 668 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,411, Corn up 10,454, Soybeans up 3,524, Soymeal up 3,788, Soyoil up 5,316.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Scattered showers south Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday. East: Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers south Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Friday.
The player sheet for Oct. 20 had funds: net buyers of 9,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 9,500 corn, buyers of 11,000 soybeans, buyers of 4,500 soymeal, and buyers of 8,500 soyoil.
- SOYOIL SALE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, said on Wednesday it had bought 25,000 tonnes of soyoil for arrival between Dec. 5 and Dec. 25.
- WHEAT SALE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased a final total of 60,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in a tender which closed on Wednesday
- WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture is seeking to buy a total of 81,318 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that will close on Oct. 21.
- WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: An Ethiopian government agency has issued a new international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat
DOE: U.S. Ethanol Stocks Rise 1.2% to 20.08M Bbl
According to the U.S. Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.
- Analysts were expecting 19.974 mln bbl
- Plant production at 1.096m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.042m
China’s Imports of U.S. Soybeans Slump 86% in September: Customs
China’s soybean imports from the U.S. plunged 86% y/y in September to 169,439 tons, according to Chinese customs data Wednesday.
- NOTE: U.S. soy exports were disrupted after Hurricane Ida struck Louisiana in late August and cargoes faced competition from No. 1 soybean producer Brazil
- China’s soybean imports from Brazil fell 18% y/y to 5.94m tons in September
- NOTE: China Sept. Soybean Imports 6.876m Tons: Customs
- China imported 3.34m tons of U.S. corn in September, almost four times higher than a year ago and hitting a new record
- Purchases from Ukraine were 192,720 tons in September, lowest since October 2020; down 3.8% y/y
- NOTE: China Sept. Corn Imports 3.53M Tons, +226.9% Y/y
- China imported 19,179 tons of U.S. pork in September, down 65% y/y
- NOTE: China’s Pork Imports Tumble to 2019 Low as Glut Swells
GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report
Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of six analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Oct. 14.
- Corn est. range 600k – 1,400k tons, with avg of 1,020k
- Soybean est. range 1,500k – 2,500k tons, with avg of 2,053k
Mexico Imposes Soy-Import Quota on Higher Prices: USDA FAS
Mexico will allow duty-free soybean imports for 500,000 metric tons to “to support competitive and stable soybean oil prices to the benefit of consumers,” according to a report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service.
- Quota is for imports from all trading partners from Oct. 1 to Dec. 31
- Mexico’s edible oils and fats consumer price index had increased 15% by May from the previous year, according to data cited in report
- NOTE: Mexico is among the world’s largest soybean importers
European Wheat Exports Losing Competitive Price Edge: Strategie
Surging prices mean European wheat, especially French supply, is losing export competitiveness, France-based consultant Strategie Grains said in a report.
- U.S. prices have also climbed, while those in the Black Sea area and Argentina hold lower
- That would cut projected French sales to Algeria; the outlook for shipments to Morocco, sub-Saharan African could also fall
- Still, Strategie’s estimate for EU wheat exports rises to 32m tons, from 31m tons, to factor in a bigger crop and commitments already made by Bulgaria, Romania, Baltic nations
- Globally, wheat and barley markets are “extremely tight” and grain price gains have been exacerbated by rising energy and fertilizer costs
- “World wheat prices have little decrease potential in the near term, whilst any increase potential seems small now that demand reduction is well underway”
- World wheat use in animal-feed expected to fall versus last year
Brazil 2021-22 Soy Output Seen at Record 145M Tons: USDA FAS
Soybean production will rise to a record 145 million metric tons in Brazil, the world’s biggest producer, in the 2021-22 season, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service says in a report.
- That compares with USDA’s official WASDE outlook on Oct. 12 for 144 million tons and up from 137 million in the 2020-21 season
Argentina says growers have sold 31.9 mln tonnes of 2020/21 soy
Argentine farmers have sold 31.9 million tonnes of soybeans harvested in the 2020/21 season, the Agriculture Ministry said on Wednesday in a report with data updated through Oct. 13.
It said the rhythm of sales was slower than last year’s, when as of the same date deals for 33.5 million tonnes had been registered.
The 2020/21 soybean harvest in Argentina ended in June with a production of 43.1 million tonnes, according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, which estimated Argentine soy production of 49 million tonnes in the 2019/20 crop year.
Planting for the 2021/22 season starts this month. The exchange expects production of 44 million tonnes.
Regarding 2020/21 corn, the government said sales have been registered for 42.5 million tonnes so far, or 4 million tonnes more than on the same date in the previous season. The 20/21 corn harvest was 50.5 million tonnes, according to the exchange.
Russia’s Demetra Trading Starts Wheat Shipments to Algeria
Demetra Trading sold 60k tons of wheat to Algeria in its first ever shipment to the country, the company said in a statement.
- NOTE: Russia sent its first wheat shipment since 2016 to Algeria in June after the North African nation eased requirements relating to bug damage
- READ (From September): Russia Boosts Wheat Exports to Algeria, Watchdog Says
- NOTE: Demetra Trading is one of the three largest Russian grain exporters and ships to about 30 countries; it’s a unit of Demetra Holding, in which Russia’s VTB is the top shareholder
Malaysia Oct. 1-20 Palm Oil Exports to India 187,130 Tons: SGS
- India imported 187,130 tons; -18.4% m/m
- China imported 130,012 tons; -27.5% m/m
Egypt 2021/22 wheat imports seen at 12.4 mln tonnes -USDA attache
Following are selected highlights from a report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service post in Cairo:
“FAS Cairo (Post) forecasts Egypt’s wheat imports in marketing year (MY) 2021/22 (July – June) at 12.4 MMT (million metric tons), up from the previous marketing year estimate due to higher consumption driven by population growth. Egypt’s wheat production in MY 2021/22 is also up from the previous marketing year. Egypt’s corn production expanded significantly in response to high prices, while rice production fell sharply as the government enforced restrictions on its planted area. Consequently, corn imports are forecast lower, while rice imports are expected up to offset the production shortfall.”
Brazil authorizes storage of beef products destined to China, halts production amid ban
Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry has authorized, for a period of 60 days, the storage of frozen beef products originally intended for shipment to China, according to a memo dated Oct. 19 seen by Reuters.
The measure targets Brazilian beef processors who had produced beef for Chinese clients but were unable to ship them after an export ban imposed on Sept 4.
Signed by two Agriculture Ministry control and inspection officials, the memo also orders companies with authorization to export to China “to stop producing beef destined to the Chinese market.”
The export ban was put in place after Brazil confirmed two atypical cases of mad cow disease last month. The move followed existing trade protocols between the two countries.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.