Global Ag News for Oct 21.22

TOP HEADLINES

Argentina Farmers Intensify Corn-to-Soy Shift as Drought Extends

Some farmers in Argentina are switching planting plans for the 2022-23 season to soybeans as a drought impedes early corn seeding, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says in a weekly report.

• The exchange cut its corn area estimate to 7.3m hectares (18m acres) from 7.5m
• Other farmers will wait it out to plant their corn seeds later in the season

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 9 3/4 in SRW, down 9 3/4 in HRW, down 6 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans down 9 1/2; Soymeal down $0.29; Soyoil down 0.36.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 20 1/4 in SRW, down 12 1/4 in HRW, up 2 in HRS; Corn is down 8 1/2; Soybeans down 2 1/2; Soymeal down $0.07; Soyoil up 4.76.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 82 in SRW, down 51 1/2 in HRW, down 25 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3 3/4; Soybeans up 15; Soymeal up $7.40; Soyoil up 8.50.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 9% in SRW, up 17% in HRW, down -3% in HRS; Corn is up 15%; Soybeans up 4%; Soymeal down 0%; Soyoil up 24%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 23) Soybeans down 55 yuan; Soymeal up 40; Soyoil down 8; Palm oil up 2; Corn up 21 –Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 4 ringgit (+0.10%) at 4100.

There were changes in registrations (-10 Soyoil). Registration total: 3,080 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 5 Soybeans; 96 Soyoil; 296 Soymeal; 40 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 20 were: SRW Wheat up 4,355 contracts, HRW Wheat down 897, Corn up 7,737, Soybeans down 14,915, Soymeal up 6,581, Soyoil up 3,421.

Northern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, below normal west and above normal east Sunday, near to below normal Monday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures above to well above normal Friday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday. Outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday night-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, above to well above normal Friday-Monday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, above to well above normal Saturday-Monday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

The player sheet for Oct. 20 had funds: net buyers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,500 corn, buyers of 6,500 soybeans, buyers of 4,500 soymeal, and  sellers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 201,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China and 132,000 tonnes to unknown destinations for shipment in the 2022/23 marketing year.
• WHEAT SALE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 97,482 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in regular tenders that closed on Thursday.
• WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia’s state grains buyer SAGO has issued an international tender to purchase 535,000 tonnes of wheat for shipment between March and April 2023, SAGO said in a statement. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is Friday, Oct. 21, SAGO said. European traders said results were expected on Monday, Oct. 24.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 90,100 tonnes of rice sourced from the United States, Vietnam and other origins, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is Oct. 19, they said.
• WHEAT TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase about 495,000 tonnes of milling wheat, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the wheat tender is Oct. 21.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat, an official source said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Oct. 25.
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan has issued a new international tender to purchase and import 500,000 tonnes of wheat, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender from the Trading Corporation of Pakistan is Oct. 26.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is seeking 120,000 tonnes of barley in an international tender with the deadline set for Oct. 26, a government source said.
• WHEAT TENDER: Iraq’s state grains buyer has issued a tender to buy a nominal 50,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is believed to be Oct. 24 with traders saying offers will remain valid until Oct. 27.

TODAY

US Sold 2.34M Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 408K of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Oct. 13.

• Soybean sales rose to 2,336k tons vs 724k in previous week
• Corn sales rose to 408k tons vs 261k in previous week
• All wheat sales fell to 185k tons vs 212k in previous week

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country (Table)

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Oct. 13, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• China bought 1.98m tons of the 2.34m tons of soybeans sold in the week
• Mexico was the top buyer of corn and also led in wheat

Argentina Wheat Forecast Axed by 9.1%, Losses May Worsen: Bourse

Argentine farmers are now expected to harvest just 15m metric tons of wheat versus September’s estimate of 16.5m, the Rosario Board of Trade says in a monthly report.

• A mix of drought and frosts is withering the crop
• If growing conditions don’t improve, the harvest will be even smaller
  • “We’re in a critical situation that may worsen as the days pass”
• CORN, SOY:
  • Planting of early corn is extremely delayed because of the drought
  • While many farmers will wait it out to plant the corn later in the season, others will instead join the shift to soybeans
  • That’ll increase the soy planting estimate; for now, Rosario is keeping its soy area figure at 17m hectares (42m acres)

World Corn Stockpile Estimate Cut as Production Wanes: IGC

World corn stockpiles in the 2022-23 season are now seen at 258m tons vs a September estimate of 262m tons, the International Grains Council said in a report.

• Production outlook falls to 1.166b tons from 1.168b tons
• World wheat stockpiles outlook kept steady at 286m tons
• Soybean stockpiles outlook raised to 54m tons vs 53m tons

India 2022-23 Domestic Edible Oil Supplies Seen Rising 7.5% Y/y

Local edible oil supplies will likely climb to 10 million tons in 2022-23, from 9.3 million tons a year earlier, according to Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive officer of Sunvin Group.

• India’s edible oil imports may be 14.5 million tons in year beginning November compared with 14.45 million tons in the previous 12-month period, Bajoria said in a presentation prepared for an online seminar
  • Palm oil imports seen at 8.6 million tons in 2022-23 vs 8.4 million tons a year earlier
  • Soybean oil purchases could fall to 3.9 million tons from 4.1 million tons; sunflower oil imports likely at 2 million tons vs 1.95 million tons
• Domestic consumption will likely rise to 24.5 million tons in 2022-23, from 23.75 million tons in the previous year

India to Avoid Raising Palm Oil Import Tax Amid Inflation Fight

• Move will prevent a jump in domestic prices during peak season
• Industry group pushed for higher duties to aid local producers

India will refrain from increasing duties on palm oil imports as the world’s biggest buyer wants to avoid a surge in domestic prices at a time when inflation is running hot, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The government is not in favor of raising import taxes because that would add to inflation risks and hurt consumers during a peak demand period, said the person, who asked not to be identified as the information is private.

Palm oil is the most-consumed cooking oil and consumption tends to surge during India’s festival season that peaks with Diwali in late October. Global prices have been whipsawed this year — soaring in earlier months to a record and prompting Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government to slash import duties — and then declining sharply since May as supply ramped up.

A spokesperson for the finance ministry, which oversees import duties, didn’t immediately respond to calls seeking comments. A spokesperson for the food and commerce ministries wasn’t available for comment.

Reuters reported this week that India was examining whether to raise import taxes on palm to support millions of local oilseed farmers. This spurred speculation that India might boost purchases before any policy change, pushing up global prices. The Solvent Extractors’ Association, an industry group, also petitioned for higher duties to prop up falling domestic vegetable oil prices.

The move to avoid raising palm oil taxes suggests that inflation is a bigger concern for the government. Food prices jumped in September, boosting retail inflation to a five-month high. There are also fears that the weak rupee, which tested fresh lows this week, would further increase import costs.

India is particularly sensitive to vegetable oil prices because it depends on overseas supply for 60% of its needs. The country may import 8.6 million tons of palm oil in the year starting Nov. 1, up from 8.4 million a year earlier, said Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive officer of Sunvin Group, a consultancy.

The basic import duty on crude palm oil is currently zero, while the tax on refined varieties of palm oil and palm olein is 12.5%.

French Wheat Halfway Sown, Corn Harvest Nears End: FranceAgriMer

The soft-wheat crop was 46% planted as of Oct. 17, up from 21% a week earlier, crops office FranceAgriMer said on its website.

• That compares with 36% at the same time last year
• Winter-barley was 67% planted, versus 37% a week earlier
  • Compares with 54% last year
• Corn was 92% harvested, up from 83% a week earlier
  • Compares with 30% last year

Ukraine’s Grain Exports Down 35% Y/y in Season Through Oct. 17

Ukraine’s grain exports during the season that began July 1 totaled 10.8m tons as of Oct. 17, down 35% y/y, the country’s agriculture ministry says on its website.

• Total includes:
  • almost 4m tons of wheat, down 63% y/y
  • 896k tons of barley, down 78% y/y
  • 5.9m tons of corn, triple a year earlier
• NOTE: Data may include grain that is aimed for exports, but hasn’t left the country yet

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending Oct. 18: USDA

The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending Oct. 18, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Winter wheat area experiencing moderate to intense drought up 4 percentage points in the week
• Soybean and corn areas both up 13 points