Global Ag News for Oct 19.22

TOP HEADLINES

Brazil’s Corn Exports May Reach October Record: Exporter Group

Corn shipments may total as much as 7.2m tons October, which will be a record for the month based on shipping schedules, according to figures from Brazil’s grain exporter group Anec.

• In the worst scenario, exports could reach 5.5m tons
• That compares with 1.9m tons a year earlier when the crop was hurt by weather
• Jan.-Oct. shipments seen at 32.8m tons, more than doubling from 12.7m tons a year earlier
• Soybean exports seen at 3.8m tons in Oct., up from 3m tons year earlier
• Jan.-Oct. soy shipments estimated at 70.9m tons, down from 79m tons in the same period of 2021

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 8 1/2 in SRW, up 10 in HRW, up 8 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans down 4 1/2; Soymeal down $0.13; Soyoil up 0.44.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 1 3/4 in SRW, up 2 1/4 in HRW, up 10 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 9 3/4; Soybeans down 16 1/4; Soymeal down $1.06; Soyoil up 3.91.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 63 1/2 in SRW, down 37 in HRW, down 17 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans up 2 3/4; Soymeal down $2.50; Soyoil up 7.62.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 11% in SRW, up 19% in HRW, down -2% in HRS; Corn is up 15%; Soybeans up 3%; Soymeal down -3%; Soyoil up 23%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 23) Soybeans up 7 yuan; Soymeal down 40; Soyoil up 76; Palm oil up 232; Corn up 4 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 109 ringgit (+2.72%) at 4120.

There were changes in registrations (-53 Soymeal). Registration total: 3,084 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 5 Soybeans; 106 Soyoil; 296 Soymeal; 40 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 18 were: SRW Wheat up 2,319 contracts, HRW Wheat up 856, Corn down 8,472, Soybeans up 1,663, Soymeal down 513, Soyoil up 5,807.

Northern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures above normal west and below normal east through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Thursday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures below to well-below normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday. Outlook: Scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Temperatures above to well-above normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Scattered lake-effect showers Wednesday, some snows possible. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures above to well-above normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

The player sheet for Oct. 18 had funds: net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,000 corn, sellers of 4,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT SALE: Two groups of South Korean flour mills bought a total of about 77,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in two international tenders on Tuesday, European traders said.
• WHEAT SALE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in a tender which closed on Tuesday, traders said.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat, an official source said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Oct. 25.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 97,482 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in regular tenders that will close on Thursday.

PENDING TENDERS

• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley seeking March and April shipment, an official source said. The tender will close on Oct. 19.
• FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 70,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 40,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Jan. 31 and arrive in Japan by Feb. 24 via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Oct. 19.
• FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: South Korea’s largest feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 95,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat and 60,000 tonnes of feed barley, European traders said on Wednesday.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 90,100 tonnes of rice sourced from the United States, Vietnam and other origins, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is Oct. 19, they said.
• WHEAT TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase about 495,000 tonnes of milling wheat, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the wheat tender is Oct. 21.

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Oct. 14 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 962k b/d
• Would be the third straight weekly increase after falling to a 19-month low in mid-September
• Stockpile avg est. 21.948m bbl vs 21.863m a week ago

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Fall 0.5% Y/y; Corn Imports Double

EU soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 reached 10.41m tons as of Oct. 16, compared with 10.46m tons in the similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations are Algeria (1.47m tons), Morocco (1.21m tons) and Egypt (1.03m tons)
• EU barley exports are at 2.32m tons, compared with 3.89m tons a year earlier
• EU corn imports at 8.39m tons, against 4.08m tons a year earlier

Brazil Corn Exports Seen Reaching Up To 7.176 Million Tns In October – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING UP TO 3.767 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS UP TO 3.463 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.038 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 2.112 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING UP TO 7.176 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS UP TO 6.164 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

USDA attaché sees Brazil 2022/23 soybean crop at 148.5 million T

Oct 18 (Reuters) – Following are selected highlights from a report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in Brasilia:

“Post increased its forecast for soybean planted area to 42.8 million hectares for (marketing year) 2021/22, up previously from 42.5 million hectares. Brazil continues to expand its area due to record high domestic soybean prices. Post forecasts a record harvest at 148.5 million metric tons (MMT), increased from 144 MMT previously with planting starting earlier this year as well. Post increased the export forecast in 2022/223 to 95.7 MMT, an increase from 92 MMT. Post revised imports downwards due to ample supplies, now forecast at 300,000 metric tons (MT) for 2022/23. For 2022/23, Post revised the forecast for soybeans destined for processing upward to a record of 50 MMT based on strong demand for Brazilian soybean products, especially oil.”

Argentina weekly soybean sales slow -ministry

Argentine grains producers have sold 69.99% of the 44 million tonne 2021/22 soybean harvest so far, the country’s agriculture ministry said on Tuesday, more than a year earlier even as weekly sales plummeted after a preferential exchange rate for exporters ended.

A year earlier, producers had sold 68.4% of the harvest.

Between Oct. 6 and 12, however, producers sold just 55,000 tonnes of soybean, well below a weekly average of around 1.1 million tonnes in September, when a preferential exchange rate mechanism for soy exporters remained in effect.

Producers also sold 68.9% of the 2021/22 corn crop, surpassing the 64.8% recorded at this time last harvest.

Corn planting for the 2022/23 cycle has already started in Argentina, but the Rosario grains exchange has said the sown area is the lowest in six years, as a consequence of harsh droughts and frosts.

Separately, about 5.37 million tonnes of 2022/23 wheat harvest have been sold so far, or 33.5% of the expected 16 million tonne-harvest.

Argentina grain inspectors threaten to walk out over company conflict

Argentina’s union for grain inspectors threatened to walk out over disagreements with an agro-export company in protests that could disrupt the country’s critical grains exports sector.

The union, whose members include port workers and technicians who review grains loaded on boats, is in conflict with food exporting company Desdelsur SA over what it says is a breach of a contract.

The union said in a statement it could carry out “surprise measures or direct action” at the country’s ports, including an abrupt walkout by members.

While October sees less traffic than other months in grains exports, a disruption to exports could still be costly for Argentina’s struggling economy, which is highly dependent on the foreign exchange generated by its powerful agro-export industry.

Argentina is the world’s leading exporter of soybean oil and meal, and the third largest exporter of corn.

Currently, Argentina’s ports are not being affected, a source from the Chamber of Private Commercial Ports told Reuters.

Fertilizer Prices Fall as Gluts Emerge After Farmers Pull Back

• US, Brazilian growers are pulling back on nutrient purchases
• Some prices still trading nearly five times historical average

Fertilizer prices are falling as farmers balking at the high costs of nutrients hold off on purchases, driving down demand and causing gluts that are upending the market for crop inputs.

Fertilizer prices soared to record highs earlier in the year after sanctions against Belarus, a major producer, and Russia’s war in Ukraine fueled soaring prices for crop nutrients. That prompted global fertilizer firms to boost purchases and transport massive amounts of product to avoid supply chain issues and trade restrictions in export markets such as Russia.

Fertilizer stored in a warehouse at a farm near Brasilia, Brazil.

Such moves have led to bloating fertilizer inventories in some key regions and farmers just aren’t buying — a situation that’s now weighing on the market. The turnabout is playing out in both the US, a major fertilizer-buying nation and the world’s top corn exporter, as well as agricultural powerhouse Brazil, the No. 1 soybean supplier.

“Farmers are pulling back on the pricey input,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Alexis Maxwell said. “Global ammonia, phosphate and potash demand are all down year to date.”

A weekly index for the common nitrogen fertilizer urea in New Orleans fell 3.2% Friday, extending a monthlong downward trend as US farmers wait to see how low prices might go. Brazilian farmers are also halting purchases, driving prices down as fertilizer piles up.

Global nitrogen prices are still trading at nearly five times historical averages, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Those in the fertilizer industry were betting farmers would buy the crop inputs given how high grains prices have been in a world facing shortfalls. But as farmers saw crop prices retreat from highs they moved to curb expenses, revisiting decisions around fertilizer applications, deliveries and the impacts on yields for future harvests. For example, while corn farmers must apply nitrogen every year, those in the US don’t often need to do it in autumn.

Brazil, the world’s largest importer of fertilizers, is facing similar circumstances. The country imported a record amount of fertilizer this year to ensure farmers would have enough inputs to expand their planted areas.

“The record importing pace this year filled warehouses, making Brazil re-export the surplus,” said Maisa Romanello, fertilizer analyst for Safras & Mercado firm. That’s “pressuring prices internally and internationally, as Brazil imports smaller volumes in the second half of this year.”

Fertilizer deliveries in Brazil between January and July fell 8.7% from the same period a year ago, according to the Brazilian National Fertilizer Association. The industry group sees deliveries falling between 5% and 7% for the full year.

Meanwhile, Brazil fertilizer prices have plunged by almost half from April’s highs, which is leaving some to wonder how low they can go.