Global Ag News for Oct 18th
TODAY – Paris wheat hits new highs as China demand in focus
Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/4 in SRW, up 2 1/4 in HRW, up 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans down 2; Soymeal down $0.06; Soyoil up 0.12.
Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 4 1/2 in SRW, up 11 1/2 in HRW, up 23 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/2; Soybeans down 12 1/2; Soymeal down $0.11; Soyoil up 0.90. For the month to date wheat prices are up 10 3/4 in SRW, up 14 1/4 in HRW, up 56 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 10 1/4; Soybeans down 40 1/4; Soymeal down $12.70; Soyoil up 2.72.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans up 30 yuan ; Soymeal down 9; Soyoil up 154; Palm oil up 176; Corn down 4 — Malasyian Palm is up 86. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 86 ringgit (+1.73%) at 5047 hitting a fresh record high as stronger petroleum prices and soybean oil futures increase its appeal as an alternative to biofuel.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday-Tuesday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Tuesday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Scattered showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday. East: Scattered showers through early Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Tuesday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday.
The player sheet for Oct. 15 had funds: net buyers of 6,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 7,500 corn, buyers of 6,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.
There were changes in registrations (-61 Soyoil). Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 17 Corn; 1 Soybeans; 244 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 1,273 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 15 were: SRW Wheat down 647 contracts, HRW Wheat up 125, Corn down 3,945, Soybeans up 6,945, Soymeal up 3,984, Soyoil down 2,126.
- SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 396,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations and another 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China, all for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year that began Sept. 1. In addition, the USDA confirmed sales of 326,750 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations, sold on unspecified dates in the reporting week ended Oct. 14.
- WHEAT TENDER PASSED: Pakistan’s state buyer is thought to have decided not to purchase any wheat in an import tender seeking around 90,000 tonnes, traders said.
- FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER UPDATE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it received no offers for feed-quality wheat or barley in a simultaneous buy-and-sell (SBS) auction that closed late on Wednesday.
- WHEAT TENDER: A United Nations agency issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 tonnes of milling wheat on behalf of the Ethiopian government,
- WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan has issued an international tender to purchase and import 90,000 tonnes of wheat, European traders said on Saturday.
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian Trading Business Corporation is seeking 400,000 tons of milling wheat, the agency said in a tender notice on its website.
U.S. Sold 1.15M Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 1.04M of Corn: USDA
- Corn sales fell to 1,044k tons vs 1,265k in previous week
- All wheat sales rose to 568k tons vs 333k in previous week
- Soybean sales rose to 1,148k tons vs 1,042k in previous week
NOPA September soy crush hits three-month low at 153.800 million bu
The U.S. soybean crush hit a three-month low in September and fell below an average of trade estimates, while soyoil stocks at the end of last month rose for a third straight month, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Friday.
- NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 153.800 million bushels of soybeans last month, down 3.2% from the 158.843 million bushels crushed in August and 4.8% below the 161.491 million bushels in crushed September 2020.
- The September crush had been expected to drop to 155.072 million bushels, according to the average of estimates from 10 analysts. Estimates ranged from 148.0 million to 162.8 million bushels, with a median of 154.150 million bushels. (Full Story)
- NOPA said soyoil supplies among its members as of Sept. 30 rose to 1.684 billion lbs, from 1.668 billion lbs at the end of August.
- Oil stocks had been expected to decline to 1.663 billion lbs, based on estimates gathered from seven analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.625 billion to 1.718 billion lbs, with a median of 1.650 billion.
- Soymeal exports last month fell to 603,545 tons, down from 856,619 tons in August and 991,134 tons in September 2020, NOPA said.
China September Agricultural Imports
General Administration of Customs says on website.
- Sept. Corn Imports 3.53M Tons, +226.9% Y/y
- YTD corn imports rose 274.5% y/y to 24.93m tons
- Sept. wheat imports 640,000 tons, -40.4% y/y
- YTD wheat imports rose 25.3% y/y to 7.59m tons
- Sept. sugar imports 870,000 tons, +61.1% y/y
- YTD sugar imports rose 38.4% y/y to 3.84m tons
- Sept. cotton imports 70,000 tons, -64.5% y/y
- YTD cotton imports rose 32.2% y/y to 1.85m tons
- Sept. edible palm oil imports 490,000 tons, +12.5% y/y
- YTD edible palm oil imports rose 12.1% y/y to 3.41m tons
- Sept. rice imports 380,000 tons, +138.5% y/y
- YTD rice imports rose 113.6% y/y to 3.58m tons
- Sept. barley imports 1.51m tons, +12.1% y/y
- YTD barley imports rose 85.5% y/y to 8.61m tons
- Sept. sorghum imports 650,000 tons, +14.4% y/y
- YTD sorghum imports rose 110.2% y/y to 7.35m tons
- Sept. natural rubber imports 620,000 tons, -28.9% y/y
- YTD natural rubber imports fell 7.6% y/y to 4.96m tons
- Sept. pork imports 210,000 tons, -44.8% y/y
- YTD pork imports fell 4.3% y/y to 3.14m tons
- Sept. beef imports 220,000 tons, +22.3% y/y
- YTD beef imports rose 10.6% y/y to 1.74m tons
Paris wheat hits new highs as China demand in focus
Euronext wheat extended a rally on Friday to set new contract highs as rumours of further sales of France’s crop to China underscored strong demand and tightening availability in Europe.
December milling wheat BL2Z1, the most active contract on Paris-based Euronext, was up 5 euros, or 1.9%, at 275.50 euros ($319.41) a tonne by 1551 GMT, close to an earlier life-of-contract peak at 276.00 euros.
Traders cited talk that Chinese buyers booked several cargoes of French wheat this week for animal feed, adding to hefty sales already thought to have exceeded a million tonnes for 2021/22.
Export prices for Russian wheat rose to nine-year high, experts say – ITAR-TASS World News
Export prices for Russian wheat rose to a nine-year high, the Sovecon analytical firm reported on Monday.
Experts noted that the ruble market was generally stable. Average prices for wheat of the 3rd class increased by 25 rubles, up to 15,025 rubles ($209) per tonne, the price of the 4th class wheat remained at 15,000 rubles ($209), the price of the 5th class wheat – at 14,375 rubles ($200) per tonne. Prices for wheat with 12.5% protein in deep-water ports fell to 16,000-16,600 rubles ($222-231) per tonne from 16,200-16,700 rubles ($225-232) per tonne a week earlier. Port demand is relatively weak, with traders talking about limited forward sales, a strong ruble and a further increase in export duties.
Russia’s grain export estimates for October by consultancy Sovecon
Russia’s October exports of wheat, barley and maize (corn) are estimated at 3.8 million tonnes, down from 4.9 million tonnes in September, the Sovecon agriculture consultancy said.
Kazakhstan to boost grain supplies to Afghanistan – ministry – Central Asia General Newswire
Kazakhstan’s grain and flour exporters continue to trade with Afghanistan under the Taliban government and plan to boost sales to the country.
It said Kazakhstan exported 7-8 million tonnes of grain and flour to the international markets annually with just over 2 million tonnes of grain shipped to Afghanistan in 2020.
QazTrade estimates that 183 of the 300 grain exporters operating in Kazakhstan catered to Afghanistan and other markets, while 49 worked exclusively with Afghanistan.
Vegetable Oil Prices May Drop in 2022 as Output Rises: Mielke
Global production of vegetable oils is set to increase significantly in the coming year, spurring a recovery of stockpiles and weaker prices, given normal weather, according to Thomas Mielke, executive director of Hamburg-based Oil World.
- World production of palm oil, sunflower oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil may rise by about 7m tons in 2021-22, the largest increase in four years, Mielke said in slides prepared for a seminar.
- Vegetable oil prices likely to decline in Jan.-June 2022, with sunflower oil leading the way, followed by palm oil and soybean oil
- Indonesia’s palm oil production to rise by 1.7m-2.0m tons in 2021-22, and Malaysia to see an increase of ~1.0m-1.2m tons
- Avg yield in Malaysia set to drop to 20-year low in 2021, with output reaching 18.2m tons or less; production will be ~4m tons below potential
- Lack of labor is major constraint, though situation likely to improve in 2022
- Global soybean production set to rise by 17m tons in 2021-22 to 179m tons, expanding faster than consumption
- World production of sunflower seed plummeted by 5.3m tons in 2020-21; output expected to recover by 7m tons to 57.4m in 2021-22, boosting oil-export supplies
- Production of rapeseed and canola seen dropping to 13-year low of 62m tons in 2021-22
- Consumption of vegetable oils for energy is rising even with high premiums over fossil fuels; global biodiesel/HVO output to expand by 1.5m tons to 48m tons in 2021; some 18% of world consumption of 17 oils and fats used for biofuels vs 12% a decade ago
Indonesia’s Palm Oil Exports Seen Rising 1.2% This Year: Gapki
Indonesia’s palm oil exports may increase 1.2% to 34.42 million tons this year from 34.01 million a year earlier with demand ramping up as countries re-open, said Togar Sitanggang, vice chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, also known as Gapki.
- Shipments of refined palm oil products to rise to 25.6m tons this year from 21.12m tons, Sitanggang said in slides for a seminar.
- Crude palm oil exports to decline to 3.27m tons from 7.17m tons
- Exports of refined palm oil products in Sept.-Dec. may average ~2.5m tons a month, while crude palm oil shipments may average ~300,000 tons a month
- Indonesia’s B40 biofuel mandate may be implemented 2023-2025
- Closing stockpiles of palm oil seen falling to 3.843m tons in 2021 from 4.867m tons year earlier
Palm Oil Will Average 4,100 Ringgit a Ton This Year, MPOB Says
Crude palm oil prices are expected to average 4,100 ringgit a ton this year on lower production, Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s director-general Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir said in slides prepared for a seminar.
- NOTE: Benchmark futures have averaged 3,972 ringgit so far in 2021
- Malaysian palm oil industry has seen weaker production this year, which limited its capacity for export and tightened stockpiles
- CPO production in Jan-Sept declined to the lowest level since 2017
- Toward end-2021, production and exports are expected to show improvement on-year and lead to “some correction” in prices
- Improvement in production and exports will probably be sustained in 2022, aided by positive development in the Covid-19 situation, better prospects of global oils and fats and favorable trade policies in importing countries
- MPOB forecasts for 2021:
- Malaysia palm oil output seen at 18m tons this year, down 6% y/y
- Palm oil exports forecast at 16.3m tons, down 6.2% y/y
- Palm oil stockpiles at 1.7m tons, up 34% y/y
- Export revenue at 95b ringgit, up 30% y/y
Oilseed Meal Exports From India Rise 11% M/m in September: Group
Oilseed meal shipments climbed to 183,625 tons from 164,831 tons a month earlier, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India said in an emailed statement Monday.
- NOTE: Exports totaled 287,247 tons in September 2020
- Soybean meal exports in September drop to 5,831 tons from 10,975 tons in August
- Rapeseed meal shipments 62,725 tons vs 63,058 tons
China Pork Production Up 38% in First 9 Months: Bureau
China’s pork output rose 38% in the first three quarters of the year to 39.17m tons, the country’s statistics agency said on Monday.
- Nation’s hog herd reached 437.6m at the end of Sept., up 18.2% y/y
- The figure compares with 439m at the end of June
- Breeding sow herd was 44.6m at the end of Sept., vs 45.6m at end-June
- Total meat output including pork, beef, mutton and chicken climbed 22.4% to 64.3m tons in the first nine months
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