Global Ag News for Oct 13th
Argentina says corn exports ‘open’ despite policy row with farmers
Wheat prices overnight are up 3/4 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, up 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans up 8 1/2; Soymeal down $0.12; Soyoil up 1.27.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 3/4 in SRW, up 1/4 in HRW, up 9 in HRS; Corn is down 9 1/4; Soybeans down 36 1/4; Soymeal down $0.68; Soyoil down 1.39. For the month to date wheat prices are up 9 1/4 in SRW, up 6 in HRW, up 43 in HRS; Corn is down 15 1/2; Soybeans down 49 1/4; Soymeal down $16.90; Soyoil up 1.43.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans down 40 yuan ; Soymeal down 39; Soyoil down 82; Palm oil down 58; Corn up 17 — Malasyian Palm is up 161. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 161 ringgit (+3.32%) at 5016 in a sudden surge of buying in late afternoon trading
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday, south Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday. East: Scattered showers north Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday, south Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Thursday.
The player sheet for Oct. 12 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 15,000 corn, buyers of 20,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and sellers of 6,000 soyoil.
There were changes in registrations (-8 Soyoil). Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 17 Corn; 1 Soybeans; 322 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 1,273 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 12 were: SRW Wheat down 89 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,008, Corn up 12,020, Soybeans up 26,773, Soymeal up 8,766, Soyoil up 1,212.
- WHEAT TENDER PASSED: Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) said it canceled an international tender to buy an unspecified amount of wheat from global suppliers, citing high prices. The lowest offer in the tender was believed to be $325.25 a tonne FOB, sourced from Ukraine
- CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 165,000 tonnes of U.S. corn to Mexico for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year that began Sept. 1.
- WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture is seeking to buy a total of 119,512 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close on Oct. 14.
- WHEAT TENDER: A United Nations agency issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 tonnes of milling wheat on behalf of the Ethiopian government
- WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan issued an international tender to purchase and import 90,000 tonnes of wheat, keeping up a trend of strong import demand after more than 1.1 million tonnes bought in past weeks
- FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Jan. 31, 2022 and arrive in Japan by Feb. 24.
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat sourced from optional origins
- CORN TENDER: TMO issued an international tender to purchase a total of 325,000 tonnes of animal feed corn
- WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
U.S. Soybean, Corn Production Raised: WASDE Takeaways
- What Drought?: Despite severely dry conditions in the northwestern U.S. Corn Belt, soybean production was raised to a record and corn production to the second-highest ever. More resilient hybrid seeds have crops performing well even when conditions aren’t ideal.
- Beginning Stocks: The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s quarterly grain stocks back on Sept. 30 ended up being pretty foreboding. U.S. soybean supplies from the previous season were revised higher and bigger-than-expected corn supplies pointed to reduced use for feed. Each, along with the higher crop production, mean there’s a bigger buffer on supplies than thought just a month ago.
- Bearish Waters Ahead: The bigger supplies could mean that more price declines are in the cards. ED&F Man Capital Markets Inc. analyst Charlie Sernatinger pointed out that December corn, fetching $5.24 a bushel currently, could fall below $5.
- Less Wheat: Fewer-than-expected global wheat supplies were one of the few bullish surprises in the report and prices for the grain have moved higher. Wheat, one of the three legs of the ag trade along with corn and soy, could lend support to the others.
- China Energy: China and other nations handling of their energy shortages remain an unknown. WASDE didn’t make many significant changes to its expectations for China’s imports but did say that energy cuts there will result in less consumption of cotton.
U.S. Inspected 746k Tons of Corn for Export, 1.612m of Soybean
In week ending Oct. 7, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.
- Soybeans: 1,612k tons vs 845k the previous wk, 2,469k a yr ago
- Wheat: 435k tons vs 615k the previous wk, 515k a yr ago
- Corn: 746k tons vs 870k the previous wk, 847k a yr ago
U.S. Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Oct. 7
- Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 1.17m tons of the 1.61m total inspected
- Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Japan led in wheat
China Sept. Soybean Imports 6.876m Tons: Customs
- Soybean imports YTD fell 0.7% y/y to 73.973m tons
- Edible vegetable oil imports in Sept. 788,000 tons
- Edible vegetable oil imports YTD rose 9.7% y/y to 8.288m tons
- Meat (including offal) imports in Sept. 694,000 tons
- Meat (including offal) imports YTD fell 0.4% y/y to 7.383m tons
China Soy Sauce King Raises Sales Prices, Citing Cost Inflation
Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Co., China’s largest soy sauce maker by sales, has decided to raise the retail prices of its products due to higher costs.
The company plans to increase the prices of soy sauce, oyster sauce and other products by 3%-7% from Oct. 25, as the costs of raw materials, transport and energy continue to increase, the Shanghai-listed company said in an exchange filing dated Wednesday, adding that the hike is aimed at making its business more “sustainable.”
Indian Palm Oil Imports Jump to Record in September on Festivals
The world’s biggest palm oil importer shipped in the highest monthly amount ever in September, or about 1.26m tons, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.
- That’s about 68% higher than the 750,134 tons in August
- Indonesian cargoes of all varieties jumped to 820,301 tons from 422,296 tons a month earlier
- Malaysian shipments climbed to 354,462 tons from 277,907 tons
- Traders and refiners boosted imports because of festival demand and in anticipation of further increases in global prices, said B.V. Mehta, the group’s executive director
- Imports may drop to a range of 700,000 tons to 800,000 tons in October, reflecting an increase in domestic oilseed production: Mehta
- NOTE: Vegetable oils play a crucial role in festivals from September to November as they’re used in sweets, fried food and other treats
- Soybean oil imports rose to 235,852 tons from 182,459 tons in August
- Sunflower oil shipments more than doubled to 180,608 tons from71,340 tons a month earlier
- Total vegetable oil imports, including non-edible oil, increased to 1.76m tons from 1.05m tons; shipments seen at at 1.2m-1.3m tons in October: Mehta
- Edible oil stockpiles on Oct. 1 totaled 2.01m tons, up from about 1.75m tons at the start of September
Indonesia Plans to Stop All Crude Palm Oil Exports Eventually
Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer of crude palm oil, plans to stop exporting the raw commodity eventually, shipping refined products instead.
“At some point, we must stop exports of crude palm oil, it should be in the form of cosmetics, margarine, biodiesel and other processed products,” President Joko Widodo said in a video uploaded to the official channel. The country needs to be bold in stopping shipments of raw materials, despite the risk of lawsuits at the World Trade Organization.
Southeast Asia’s largest economy has been seeking to climb up the commodities value chain, banning exports of unrefined copper and later nickel ores while requiring miners to invest in local smelters. The European Union has sought to challenge the export restrictions at the WTO.
Indonesia should prepare “world-class lawyers” in anticipation of any legal action, Jokowi said.
AgriMer Cuts French Wheat Stockpile Outlook, Nearing 2020 Level
French soft-wheat stockpiles at the end of the 2021-22 season are now seen at 2.36m tons, down from a September estimate for 2.86m tons, crops office FranceAgriMer said in a report on Wednesday.
- That puts inventory near even with last year’s 2.34m tons, which was the lowest in at least six seasons
- Estimate for exports outside the EU kept unchanged at 9.6m tons
- Total exports also little changed at 17.8m tons
- NOTE: France’s agriculture ministry lowered its soft-wheat crop estimate on Tuesday, citing summer rains that dented grain yields
- Exports outside the EU seen at 3.2m tons, down from 3.3m tons in September
- Total exports trimmed to 6m tons, from 6.1m tons
- End-of-season stockpiles cut to 1.31m tons, from 1.36m tons
- Stockpiles at the close of the 2020-21 season kept unchanged at 1.8m tons
- No estimate yet given for the 2021-22 year
Expensive Wheat Prompts Top Buyer Egypt to Skip Tender Purchase
High wheat prices that have helped drive food inflation are deterring purchases by the world’s biggest importer of the grain.
Egypt’s state buyer on Tuesday said it canceled its latest wheat tender because of high prices. The fairly rare move by the country, which imports vast amounts of grain to subsidize bread for its citizens, highlights how high food costs are threatening to disrupt trade and grain purchases.
Benchmark Chicago wheat futures have climbed more than 20% in the past year, and the average price that Egypt’s state buyer has paid since purchases for the current season began has jumped by about $100 a ton. Harvest from North America to Russia have been hurt by extreme weather, prompting worries about a shortfall, while the market has also been hit by higher shipping costs.
Argentina says corn exports ‘open’ despite policy row with farmers
Argentina’s corn export market remains “open” despite a new government policy that prioritizes crops that are already harvested over forward sales of the upcoming crop, the agriculture ministry said on Tuesday.
The 2021/22 crop is currently being planted in the world’s second biggest corn exporting country. The government said it wants to sell last season’s corn before approving more exports of the upcoming crop, which will not start to be harvested for another five months.
Of the 55 million tonnes of corn expected by the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange to be harvested next season, a record 38.5 million have been sold, according to government data. Farmers have been rushing to lock in high international prices while their costs are pushed up by chronically high inflation.
Farmers however called the policy, which was announced on Monday, an unnecessary intervention in the free market.
The country’s four main farming groups, banded under the CEEA umbrella organization, issued a statement on Tuesday saying it was “concerned.”
EU Soft-Wheat Exports Rose 39% in Season Through Oct. 10
Soft-wheat shipments during the season that began July 1 reached 8.37m tons as of Oct. 10, vs 6.02m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said Tuesday on its website.
- NOTE: Data for the prior season include trade for the U.K. until Dec. 31, 2020, when the country departed the EU customs union
- Top soft-wheat destinations were Algeria (1.18m tons) South Korea (823k tons) and Egypt (757k tons)
- EU barley exports totaled 2.62m tons, compared with 2.4m tons a year earlier
- China is the top market at 636k tons
- EU corn imports reached 3.79m tons, against 4.73m tons a year earlier
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